not had time to die down fanfare in honor of the signing of agreements on the construction of the Nabucco and South Stream, as another infopovod granted Ukraine. New idea on the fact of being very old - do not buy Turkmen gas from Gazprom, but directly.
memories of the past
With stormy
military events at the beginning of the gas issue, month after month does not lose relevance. And each time for this occasion is: the March signing of the Declaration of gas transport in Brussels before the regular Russia laments the fact that here in Ukraine next month, just can not pay for the supplied blue fuel. And the closer the heating season, the more attention is paid to the fate of the contracts signed in January. And let the contract extends until the end of 2019, the Ukrainian side, it seems, constantly looks for options for improving the situation. One of them, apparently, is intended to be the idea of returning to the old scheme - the direct purchase of gas from Turkmenistan.
winning novelty such an idea is no different. By and large, for many years, namely Turkmenistan was the main supplier of cheap gas to Ukraine, for which our country was paying a cash and barter. But in the first half of 2000's understanding of energy suffered several blows. On the one hand, Turkmenbashi Saparmurat Niyazov longer satisfied with the current scheme - and the price, and the ideological - a developing country's economy would have preferred to increase the proportion of injections live money. On the other hand - in 2003, was signed on 25-year contract with Gazprom, involving several years to increase purchasing Russia's Corporation to a level that is not intended to be that they have no buyers (up to 70-80 billion cubic meters of 2009).
Because of these factors, as well as memorabilia of diplomatic failures of the Ukrainian leadership (starting with the head of Naftogaz Oleksiy Ivchenko those days) in 2005, a favorable moment for the extension of existing arrangements for twenty years was lost. Since early 2006-th Ukraine to stop buying Turkmen blue fuel from Ashgabat. But do not use them - in the years most of the gas, absorbed the Ukrainian economy continued to remain Turkmen origin.
Only schemes were quite different: RosUkrEnergo bought from Gazprom little (2006 - 17 billion cubic meters) of expensive natural gas and Russia's more (about 60 billion cubic meters) of various low-cost Central Asian origin, and Input Kiev has received a relatively inexpensive first gas average of origin. But time passed, gas (including Asian) became more expensive, headed by the new leader of Turkmenistan - Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, and Ukraine after a series of efforts of the current Prime Minister has refused the services of intermediaries. It's time to discuss the prospects ...
On the possibility of direct purchase of energy from Central Asian suppliers remembered with enviable regularity. But the effectiveness of these memories is negligible: in his time, Gazprom concluded prudently close to the exclusive contracts for their rights to the product of Asian wells. Nevertheless, August 25, the Ukrainian ambassador in Ashgabat, Viktor Maiko said that in the near future, the two Presidents will discuss the scheme of sale, liberated from the intermediaries. We are ready for tripartite (with Russia) talks about the possibility of resuming direct purchases of Turkmen gas to some extent .. maybe it will be 10-15 billion cubic meters of gas - sure messenger. Certain terms agreement to declare the diplomat did not: six months, a year - as happens. But he sees a lot of cooperation prospects - up to Ukraine's participation in the gaining popularity of the Nabucco project, which is ready to join, and Turkmenistan. But while the prospect of building another direction (practically duplicate on a hypothetical route beloved Yulia Tymoshenko project White Stream) are in very shaky condition, the theme remains the number one gas through an existing pipe. And for Kyiv and Ashgabat to review the principles of cooperation on the current challenging times more than would have been.
Duma of the present
By mid-2009 both potential partner approached with visible to the naked eye, a desire to reduce its own dependence on Russia's Corporation. But no matter how understandable not look like a dream, it is unlikely that they will find understanding of the current intermediary between the supplier and the consumer.
main, what seems now seeks to Turkmenistan - to find partners for long-term cooperation. Seeks to guide the Central Asian republics in all possible directions. In Europe - through the perspectives of the construction of Nabucco (although for this first step is to pave the Trans-Caspian branch). In China, which is ready to invest billions of dollars in the development of the Turkmen field Southern Iolotan with the prospect of further imports developed energy. In Iran, in the direction that will be running the new pipeline in December this year. But because the contracts signed major gas Ashgabat is a partner of Gazprom, that's only the farther - to a greater extent on paper.
Although originally scheduled to reach that level of supply has not been (instead of 60-70-80 billion in 2006, the corporation bought a little over 40 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas), the Russians remained the biggest clients of the Central Asian deposits until April 2009. By this time, initially low, the price of blue fuel to reach those proportions, when his purchase and resale ceased to be profitable - even though details of the contracts remain a mystery, according to rumors, they talked about a bracket at or above the level of $ 300 per thousand cubes. And all this price splendor was accompanied by a decline in gas supplies in Ukraine and in Europe - crisis, the recession of industry, so even a mild winter have significantly reduced energy demand of buyers. Seventh April Gazprom executives put the partners aware of the fact that something needs to be changed - or lower prices or reduce supply. The very next day, Russia dramatically reduced the sample gas, and soon the sharp increase in pressure (on the version of the exporter) pipe still could not stand it. The explosion on the pipeline Dovletabat-Deryalyk predictably affected the temperature of the Turkmen-Russia cooperation, then Ashgabat began enthusiastically seek alternative buyers for the resource. And while the giant pipeline project continues to be a fairly distant prospect, the idea is to directly sell gas to Ukraine, which it is already used by Russia's re-exporter, looks quite attractive.
In turn, in Kiev there are reasons to actively wish for the restoration of cooperation with that country. First, the reduction of energy independence from Moscow has long been listed among the priorities of the current power, and it would be strange to give up the opportunities, even if Ukraine's gas needs of those 10-15 million are not covered. Secondly, the emergence of an alternative supplier would affect the level of prices in the market. And finally, thirdly, according to experts, even the specter of involvement in the relationship of Kiev and Gazprom third party might help to solve Russia's far more unwilling partners.
Misty triangular future
One of the main problems of Ukraine in the energy sector in the near future risks becoming impossible to fulfill the signed contracts. And while the root of evil, despite the fears, lies not in the price, which may significantly grow in the next year, but there is no need to use the amount of gas to buy in January, signed by Yulia Tymoshenko. However, Prime has already revised its opinion. According to her, this year Ukraine is planning to purchase a total of 33 billion cubic meters (instead of the planned 41.6 billion), and the next - 25-27 billion, as opposed to contracted 52-m.
On the one hand, the desire to save quite clear - reduce industrial production automatically implies reducing the need for expensive energy resources. On the other - to count on the loyalty of the supplier, according to numerous statements made by top Gazprom, is not necessary. The Russians have already gone towards Ukraine, which did not penalize Naftogaz for the systematic shortage of gas this year, but it is unclear how this decision is final and not appealable. It is difficult to expect that with the same understanding of the leadership of the corporation will meet the idea of the need to cut supplies to Ukraine by half. At such a review, the exporter at risk of losing about $ 5 billion, that are experiencing difficult days of the company - is unacceptable.
in ritual dances around a potential revision of contracts with each party its arguments. The main argument of the Russians - a signed agreement, which prohibits not only reduce the volume of purchases by more than 20 percent, but requires advance (no less than six months) to discuss the issue. And the time for the revaluation of domestic needs in the first half of 2010 has already expired. Ukraine is still trying to find a compromise, and it is likely that an important factor in this quest will be the threat of revival of the Turkmen (otherwise serious concern is the potential bargain on the grounds of gas agreements with the EU). These may include exchanges: Naftogaz refuse Turkmen gas, but Gazprom will reduce the volume of supply in the country, - this opinion with the publication Kommersant-Ukraine shared the chief of analytical department BrokerCreditService Maxim Shein.
While it is difficult to say what impact the Central Asian factor may have on the negotiations with Gazprom. The likelihood that the prospect of losing part of the Ukrainian market by a decline in deliveries to Europe as well as its own gas production, will affect the pliability of Russians there. Moreover, their position has been notably affected on many fronts: from the direct reduction of gas production (almost 25 percent - if we take the first half of 2009 to the first half of 2008 th) to the staggering the prospects for the construction of alternative pipelines. But, on the one hand, today the contracts with Turkmenistan seem to be very vague, on the other - Moscow may treat them less nervous than expected. In the latter case, gazopolitiku can expect a truce (Russia quietly provides its pipes for Turkmen-Ukrainian cooperation) and cold war . Perhaps it is because Viktor Maiko, and spoke of the tripartite talks, because the situation when Russia refused to provide a corridor for the gas purchased by Ukraine, initially looks like a stalemate. Moreover, after the Kremlin had decided to withdraw its signature from the Energy Charter, to appeal to the conscience of the failed transit will be somewhat difficult. Of course, a blow to the image of a leading exporter could be very significant, but devoid of a substantial part of the necessary blue fuel Ukraine is unlikely from this would be easier ...
Theoretically, the idea of diversification of gas purchases for Ukraine seems very attractive. And Turkmenistan as a potential partner looks quite promising: and gas reserves in the Central Asian country's impressive, and the volume of its production and the planned exports (in 2009, Ashgabat planned to sell about 50 billion cubic meters, but Russia's demarche seems noticeably adjust these figures). Also, could happen again so that the bezrybe view of the current import price Turkmenbashi could be more flexible than that of Russia's monopoly. Against the background of a hypothetical being the only stumbling block appears Gazprom. The same Gazprom, which had planned to buy out the root of almost all Turkmen gas. The same Gazprom, in which Ukraine promised to buy much more gas (maybe not half, the Ukrainian authorities to bluff like, but still), what seems she may need - you can not have another 10-15 billion cubic meters ... And the same Gazprom, which controls the pipes, through which Ukraine could come Turkmen energy resources. Willy-nilly, but in this case the agreement need to really to think of three. I do not know all there is to this mood.
Xenia Sokółka
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