First, the granting of loans to be thawed for corporate clients. The resumption of lending to banks - the only way to restore the profitability of the business. However, at least until the end of this year, high interest rates and tight lending conditions remain unchanged.

Credit resuscitation

continuing credit stagnation bankers attributed to political factors. "If after the presidential elections, political and economic situation to normal in the second half of banks with excess liquidity, will begin to lend more actively. To improve its financial performance, financial institutions are interested in the resumption of lending," - said Dmitry Sologub, head of research and analysis of Raiffeisen Bank Aval.

Among the major creditors of enterprises will continue to appear on state-owned banks, which even in the last year managed to set records for the credit implosion in the economy. With respect to segment physical persons, it will be in the forefront of "daughters" of foreign banks have r1000eceived support and contribute to the capital from the parent structures. "Expect to have activity only against some Western players. They will focus on short credits, as" long "money has not yet appeared in the country", - says Greg Krasnov, CEO of Platinum Bank.

However, the activity of "foreigners" will moderate. The reason - record losses that they were in 2009 because of the aggressive policy pursued by the pre-crisis years. "Shareholders will not long tolerate such a situation, and soon will demand from its Ukrainian unit profitable operation. Therefore, banks will be forced to lend," - said vice-chairman of one of the banks with foreign capital. However, scalded with milk, financiers are now promise to blow on the water. "After" work on the mistakes of the banks will be more carefully selected customers in the future ", - assured Dmitry Zinkov, chairman of OTP Bank.

Loans for selected
For physical persons

lending bankers are going to bet on the issue of "short" of loans in local currency. "First and foremost is to revive short-term hryvnia lending: consumer loans, auto loans for three to five years, overdrafts and credit cards" - predicts Piotr Kaczmarek, director of retail business, Alfa-Bank (Ukraine). Another area which bankers predict growth - cash loans. "Cash-loans compared to last year show the dynamics at the level of 15-20%", - believes Tzvetan Petrinin, deputy chairman of Retail Business, director of retail business and distribution of VAB Bank.

However, almost all surveyed banks were assured that no plans to soften the requirements for borrowers and conditions for granting loans. "Return to the rampant lending individuals, when the loan be made with a minimum initial contribution (and in some programs, and even without it), and all related transaction costs (commissions, insurance, etc.) could be financed through a loan, not exactly will be "- convinced Dmitry Zinck. "By establishing crediting physical persons, banks in the first place will start issuing loans to those customers that maintain a permanent relationship, as well as clients with positive credit history", - considers Tzvetan Petrinin.

will remain fairly high and the price of loans. Therefore, as in the current year, motorists will have to rely on the affiliate programs of banks with car dealers and manufacturers, providing preferential rates. "Lending rates remain at a high enough level - around 30% APR. Expect them to reduce the current year is not worth as resources for the banks will still be expensive", - says Sergey Alputov, head of monitoring the bank"s lending programs Khreschatyk.

Mortgage is not present

Few financial institutions promise to return this year to mortgage lending, and only a few - to grant loans to buy housing on the primary. "Maybe we are intensifying the work in the segment of mortgage lending as the primary and secondary markets for the purchase of real estate which is in the mortgage for bad loans as well as I know where the exchange of shelter" - told the press service of VTB Bank. Most bankers still consider high-risk mortgage market. The reason - conflicting predictions about the dynamics of property prices.

"There is a likelihood of further depreciation of the collateral, which may lead to an increase in the level of bad debt on the mortgage loan portfolio. In addition, mortgage loans are issued for long periods, and attract long-term financial resources of banks today is not easy. Under the purchase of real estate continue to provide l1000oans mainly those banks which have their own building projects. Mortgage lending will resume no earlier than the 2012-2013 "- predicts Dmitry Zinck. There is another reason why the financiers are not too believe in the success of the mortgage in the short term. Because of the ban on the issuance of loans in hard currency, banks will have to give expensive hryvnia virtually inaccessible to ordinary Ukrainians. Currently, the average rate on loans for housing purchase is 22,4-26,64% per annum, and reduce the price banks are not going.

"The initial contribution for mortgage lending will be in the range from 30 to 50%. This rate will remain at the level of interest rates on car loan - 25-27%," - says Tzvetan Petrinin. The plans of the bankers also limit the average duration of mortgages 10-15 years and to tighten the requirements for their welfare.

Businesses give money

Experts forecast more strong growth this year may show loans to legal entities. "The market is ready to lend to the corporate sector. This segment, in contrast to the retail market does not require the bulk of technological training, less risky loans. We expect the loan portfolio of legal entities in the system will increase by approximately 10% (in 2009 this figure was 5% . - Ed.) "- convinced Haim stalactites, Vice Chairman of the Board, Director of Corporate Business VAB Bank. Optimists also believe that lending to corporate customers compared with the year 2009 could increase by almost a third.

"Large-scale revival of lending can be expected from the end of the first quarter, while real growth portfolios will have visible from the second half of 2010. For the second quarter will increase competition among banks, which affect the rates of loan programs for businesses. I think the growth of credit portfolio will be legal entities for the year about 30% (in 2008 - about 75%), "- says Victor Yerasov, Director of the Department of the Treasury BG Bank.

At the same time, the financiers do not promise any substantial liberalization of the requirements for borrowers, no credit conditions. On the one hand, they fear to stimulate growth of "bad" loans, and therefore intend to make loans or verified customers with impeccable credit history, or the least risky categories of borrowers, such as exporters.

"At this stage we focus on lending to corporate clients. In particular we are interested in customers who have a significant part of the turnover generated in foreign currency", - said Marco Cappellini, Chief Director of Risk Management Pravex Bank. On the other - the financiers are simply unable to satisfy the pent-up during the crisis, demand for borrowed funds. "Credit product starts to" wear off "as we improve the economic situation in Ukraine, as a rule, by reducing tariffs. For example, the beginning of 2011 lending rates in UAH for small and medium-sized businesses can fall from 26-27% to 21-22 % per annum "- promises Haim stalactites.

However, the current efforts of banks to build active operations will allow them to stay at the level of performance in 2009, or show only modest growth. "In general, the banking system"s loan portfolio, or slightly decrease, or remain stable, while last year it is rapidly declining. Since loans will be repaid at all banks, and issue new plan to only the largest financial institutions, the loan portfolio growth for the whole system We do not expect ", - said Piotr Kaczmarek.

Tatiana Ochimovskaya

Quick revaluation of the yuan adversely affect the economy of China
Oil can fall in price next week because of an increase of fuel in the U.S.
Drivers can pay fines via terminals in patrol cars
86% of the producers of meat products worked with violations
Fitch: Most of the rating actions on banks were positive in 4 square meters. 200b8b9
The student, who introduced the platform Fynanz, received 6.5 million dollars
Obama has pledged $ 30 billion for lending to small business
The stock market capped a week of fall to the levels of the end of December - in the region 1400 points on the RTS
USA: the markets jumped on the "hanging flags" ...