Last week the Cabinet confirmed its case against the threat of problem banks. Officials albeit informally, but refused to nationalization of one of the largest in the country finuchrezhdeny - Ukrprombank, which has not been able to negotiate with creditors to restructure all its borrowings, as required by CMU.

financiers are confident that a similar fate awaits the remaining problem banks if they are unable to find a common language with creditors or not otyschut new investors, and predicted a sequence of eliminations for the August-October. According to different estimates, under the knife can go three or four finuchrezhdeniya.

Pogorelov on credit

question on the Elimination of Ukrprombank rose 21 July: on this day expiration of the moratorium on the satisfaction of its creditors (including depositors), which was announced NBU January 21, 2009 According to the law at the end of this period was obliged finuchrezhdenie initiate the payment of deposits, but this did not happen.

The Bank has not yet begun issuing deposits in full, because its financial condition does not permit to do so. At the last time he made a partial payment: completely gave interest ondeposits, provided a refund of deposits to force majeure and clients older than 75 years. The total amount of payments to individuals for the six months of the interim administration was 1.2 billion UAH. , - the temporary administrator Ukrprombank Constantine Raevsky. According to him, to date, total funds in the accounts of individuals in finuchrezhdenii is 6876 million UAH. Legal - 0.872 billion

Despite the fact that prior to July 21 of the Cabinet and has not been filed in response to the recapitalization of the documents last week in Ukrprombank still hoped for the nationalization and the allocation of government 5.5 billion UAH. as planned in early 2009 The best solution would be a recapitalization. Indeed, in this case, no investor will not be affected and will be respected the interests of other bank clients - legal entities and their creditors, - said Mr. Raevsky. However, according to the DC source at the Ministry of Finance, the Cabinet does not intend to nationalize Ukrprombank and is going to initiate their elimination.

Introduction to recapitalize the bank received from the NBU, we'll see. But history is more complicated than the capitalization of such finuchrezhdeny as Rodovid-bank, and bank Ukrgasbank Kiev , which we carried out. After all, the position of the Ministry of Finance remains the same: has yet to be addressed and clearly understood the possibility of settlement payments to the debt of these financial institutions, especially foreign debt, the final decision on the recapitalization does not take - formally confirmed this information. about. Minister of Finance Igor Umansky.

As reported in Ukrprombank, until now there have not been able to agree on a restructuring of 100% of its foreign borrowing, as required by the Government.

investors have to wait three to six months

interviewed financiers are confident that after an official denial Cabinet Mount nationalize bank NBU just will not leave the choice and he will have to put Ukrprombank to eliminate. Indeed, after the moratorium was lifted on issuance of deposits, the courts have begun to take claims of victims of clients. We can expect that a group of investors and develop a consolidated position in the court will seek recognition Ukrprombank bankrupt, - said Dragon Capital Investment analyst Vitaly Vavrischuk.

In this case, the Court explicitly decides to recover the money from the bank, - has added its financial analyst Astrum Investment Management Jaroslav Stetsik. According to current projections, this type of judicial verdict can appear quite quickly - within a month. And if NBU will not Ukrprombank to eliminate the past, it will do so after the court decisions, though not immediately.

According to Article 88 of the Law On banks and banking activity , if a financial institution, the debtor is unable to fulfill its obligations in accordance with the decision of the court of enforcement for six months and during this time is not reached agreement on the restructuring of the recognized debt National Bank of Ukraine is obliged to revoke the license and initiate the procedure for its elimination, - explained the managing partner of law firm Mozhaev & Partners Michael Mozhaev.

allow elimination Ukrprombank and at the NBU. I do not think that we will delay the case Ukrprombank even if signed by the President of the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law on July 24, rescuing the banks, which allows the temporary administrator for another six months to renew the deposit freeze. This does not make sense: it is already open in the Cabinet give understand that do not want to nationalize the bank, so it does not make sense to drag out the time and costs to think about how quickly to return money to investors , - told the DC source in the NBU.

Now officials are discussing the two schemes of payments to depositors of deposits, each of which implies the additional issue of the National Bank. Under the first scenario, the regulator before the start liquidation procedures translate depositors-natural persons for maintenance of Oschadbank. National Bank of Ukraine proposes to consider the possibility of Oschadbank obligations on individuals' funds Ukrprombank - confirmed this version of Director of the Department of Foreign Economic Relations of the National Bank of Ukraine Sergey Kruglik.

payment of contributions will be at the expense of increasing the capital gosfinuchrezhdeniya: it is expected that 6876 million UAH. that hill, the bank must pay to the public, will release the bonds of domestic goszayma - after purchase NBU issue OVDP become a cash. The second option payment of deposits implies launching liquidation procedures Ukrprombank. Then, the roster of contributors will be transferred to the Fund guarantee deposits natural persons, and he should start paying compensation to 150 ths. As provided by existing legislation. However, this may not happen immediately, because so far he does not possess such means: as reported in Ukrprombank, the average deposit size of natural persons, it is currently about 40 thousand UAH., So that the actual amount of payments to investors will be as close as possible to notorious 6876 million UAH. But as of July 1, the Fund's guarantee of deposits was accumulated only 4.53 billion UAH. So to ensure that payments to clients Ukrprombank it will have to apply for a loan to the National Bank: the possibility of doing so the Fund received on 27 June, after the emergence of ruling NBU № 308. Experts estimate that in both cases, investors will have to wait for their money from three to six months.

problem banks will be more

for similar scenarios may soon occur and the payment of depositors, who dolen bank Nadra. August 10, it will expire moratorium on creditors' claims, and if before that time he was not able to agree on a restructuring of external borrowing, the Nadra also will not be able to apply for nationalization. Now the bank is continuing to negotiate with the Club of creditors. But if they fail, it is likely that he will repeat the fate of Ukrprombank, - said a senior analyst of investment company Phoenix Capital Maria Maiboroda.

The probability that Nadra alone will restore liquidity to the August 10, very small. The only option is a possible recapitalization of Cabinet of Ministers, if finuchrezhdenie will be able to agree on a restructuring of external debt - a colleague has added junior analyst investment group Socrates Roman Sirotyan .

much less, according to experts, investors have options for smaller banks, which also will soon expire deposit Moratorium: Zakhidinkombank - August 12, Odessa-Bank - August 22, Transbank - September 1, BIG Energy - September 15. The experts do not doubt that almost all small finuchrezhdeniya, which this year moratorium expires, the NBU has put in the liquidation, and investors will have to get their deposits in the Guarantee Fund. For most banks, which established the interim administration, a moratorium on satisfaction of creditors' claims will expire in the next two months. However, none of them have not been able to restore its solvency.

If Nadra seeks recapitalization involving the Cabinet, and even have a chance of recovery, a number of smaller banks are likely to be eliminated, - says Roman Sirotyan.

In doing so, experts predict a further increase in small-scale problem finuchrezhdeny. Last week, the NBU has introduced a temporary administration in the bank Vladimir and bank Capital and, projected to financiers, to the end of 2009, a similar fate may wait another 13.

If in May in Ukraine the problem of payment and card accounts were 25 banks, but now - 30. In 17 of them are already working our temporary administrators, and the remaining 13, they may appear as soon as possible, - the source in the central bank. It was expected that most actively introduce temporal administration will begin in September and October.

Elena Lysenko

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