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somehow very quickly resigned, and even got used to the fact that a month now lives (and at least another couple of months is doomed to live) without the approval of the law of state estimates. Moreover, and reasons for concern seems to be no special: Payments go and gosmashina somehow works. In truth, the current situation the lack of budget - a very convenient thing for the government: not as such budget revenue and expenditure (payment schedule), and all sorts of meticulous experts can not calculate the actual deficit of state budget.
That and the Ministry of Finance on January 27 issued a very optimistic statistics. As it turned out, for January-December 2009 state budget deficit is made with less than 20 billion UAH. (19,865.6 million), while the planned annual targets have been much worse - 31,6 billion UAH. So where is cause for concern?
They appear, if a bit deeper look at the Finance Ministry published indices. As soon becomes apparent that, despite more than 12 percent annual inflation (12.3%), the tax revenues to state treasury over the last year have decreased, and also more than 12% (from 168 billion UAH. Up to 149 billion). Emerged almost $ 20 billion hole had to be compensated ... right through loans. Borrowing state treasury last year exceeded $ 97 billion UAH. (of which at maturity accounted for about 31.3 billion). For comparison: in 2008, both figures were more than five times more modest (17.7 and 6 billion UAH., Respectively). It is unfortunate that in this year"s trend of rapid expansion of national debt will inevitably gather momentum.
The fact that the money in the treasury sorely lacking, it is very hard to hide. According to former Finance Minister, an indicative amount of the budget deficit in 2010 will be about 150 billion UAH. (including funds provided to recapitalize troubled banks). Pinzenyk believes that the real deficit will be even higher, as in the election campaign the Government has not dared to raise gas prices.
obvious that in such circumstances the Government will not be too fussy in the search for additional sources fill the budget hole. Vivid examples: the decision of the Ministry of Finance of the truncated compensation of VAT to exporters, as well as attempts to deprive the Cabinet of the National Bank of reserves to replenish the treasury bills. But if discrimination exporters entirely in the hands of the government, the question of "development" natsbankovskih reserves Yulia Tymoshenko hurriedly not solved. Despite the formal resolution of the IMF to reduce the foreign exchange reserves of the NBU to $ 2 billion, the National Bank refused to transfer these funds to the government accounts, as well as direct lending to the budget he is prohibited by law profile.
It would seem, yet another scandal and recriminations NBU Head Volodymyr Stelmakh and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is inevitable. However, several days passed, but no drastic steps on both sides and not followed. Moreover, according to sources, "ZN" at the National Bank, this week was even held an expanded meeting of the Board of the NBU, which was attended by the prime minister and representatives of virtually all major banks with the Ukrainian and foreign capital (except for Privat).
At the meeting of bankers were asked to look very strongly, how attractive is government bonds, giving the yield over 20% per annum, even for three-and six-month securities. A case, you see, is that in the course of 12, 19 and 26 January auctions, the Ministry of Finance managed to attract only about 400 million UAH. even at rates 22-26% of securities from three months to three years. According to the PN one of the participants of the meeting, Yulia Tymoshenko suggested the bankers to buy Government Bonds amounting to 4.6 billion UAH. And the state budget deficit in January-February is projected at about $ 7 billion UAH.
not to say that the financiers were very tractable, but where to go, if you"re at the same time persuade the prime minister and head of the National Bank: Bankers have agreed to buy six months of Government Bonds with a yield of 21% over $ 2 billion UAH.
In this case, however, because of doubts in the reliability of bankers minfinovskih obligations as a guarantor of their National Bank had to act. He already seems to be even ruled government, which pledged to buy Government Bonds from the banks for five days prior to maturity. "It will then be dealt with financial problems between the Cabinet and National Bank of Ukraine, Vladimir Stelmach did not say, - said our interlocutor. - But I think that this debt will be transformed into a more long bonds.
It should be noted that the Cabinet needed money not only on the "most sacred" - social benefits. In February, the government must pay back issues of state bonds worth about 1,5 billion UAH. More about 2,5 billion UAH. be paid to holders of Government Bonds in April. Nevertheless, in the first half of the Cabinet of Ministers must repay government debt of more than 8 billion UAH. In the second half, taking into account "svezhevtyuhannyh" bonds to banks to 2.1 billion UAH., The government will need to pay the holders of government securities is about 5,5 billion UAH. It seems that all these debts will be converted into a government before the National Bank, which is only due to this operation will increase to 67 billion UAH., Or 20% of projected state budget.
Thus, according to Victor Pynzenyk, accurately determine the amount of debt the government before the National Bank can not. "Nobody really knows," - says Victor M., believing that repayment of state bonds from banks, regulators do not make sense. "NBU has no right to directly fund the budget deficit, so the Treasury can not simply reissue the paper, which are at the NBU. The government should maintain this debt, otherwise there will be a default" - explains the financier.
According to the former deputy chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Serhiy Yaremenko, the National Bank in this operation is the guarantor of government payments. "I think the promise to buy Government Bonds for five days prior to their maturity and the government have the option of such a guarantee", - considers Yaremenko. In his view, such cooperation between the NBU and the Cabinet could mean that in the event of his presidency Tymoshenko Stelmach has a chance to retain the post of head of the National Bank. Therefore, the operation to force the banks to the purchase of new state bonds for maintenance of the old Cabinet will be held every time, once the approximate date of regular payment of financial market participants or the central bank.
However, the bankers themselves against such exploitation did not object. "The average cost of our liabilities hryvnia to date a little above 15%. When the rates for Government Bonds at the level of 21-23% per annum that investment becomes very profitable for the financial establishments, which are virtually risk nothing, - said chairman of the board of Ukrsotsbank Boris Tymonkin. - In invest in Government Bonds we constrain only limits established by parent banks, foreign groups ".
In turn, economists are fairly negative perceived government policy on withdrawal of funds from the banking system. "The money that the government collects from banks, could be aimed at lending to the real sector of the economy. This would gradually revive the most competitive production", - says Sergey Yaremenko. According to the expert, there is now a situation in which customers themselves because of excessive high cost of credit do not apply them to the bankers (in December, the volume of credit to the economy increased by only 0,2%). Hence the constant saturation of the banking system liquidity. "Business is not prepared to service the loans at 22-25% per annum in circumstances where it is impossible to predict the further development of production or sale," - says ex-deputy chairman of the NBU.
If the rate on Government Bonds were lower, possibly reducing the rates would have on lending. However, instead of the real sector of the money from the banking system go in transit through the state treasury for social payments, which, in the election campaign only increases, while the base for social benefits - the country"s GDP - is reduced.
Do I need to once again explain to our readers, what will ultimately lead such a state of financial and economic policy? "If only we let the night stand to hold the day" - this quote from the famous Gaidar"s "Tales of a military secret, Boy-Kibalchish and his firm, the word" today is the best suited as a slogan for the managers of state finances. Of course, salaries to state employees, pensions and other social payments must be paid in the most timely and in full at any cost. That"s just the price that has to pay the Ministry of Finance, threatens finally "break the state treasury in a few months. And all would be nothing if the country after the presidential election could start life from scratch. Alas, this sheet will not be clean. Because of it does not dipped black line deplorable economic indicators but has drawn our state and its citizens IOUs.
Alexander Dubinsky, Yuri SKOLOTIANY
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