Struggle bulls and bears

yesterday's rebound in the oil market was characterized by a strong desire of market participants away from the foundation of speculative fears that prevailed throughout the past week. In principle, they succeeded, but has reasons to change the trend towards the medium-term growth is not observed, although in recent days the market is quite responsive to negative factors, rather than positive. Common concerns, of course, can continue to reduce the quotas, but the bulls may start to buy the market, so before the end of the week we do not exclude the lateral movement in the usual range of 1320-1380 points on the MICEX.

On the U.S. market trading leading indexes closed lower against the background of macroeconomic news, in that the negative trend could not be reversed even good corporate news. Negative report was accepted by the U.S. Commerce Department that the volume of construction of new homes in the United States in September compared with the previous month has increased significantly weaker than expected up to 590 thousand units, while the forecast that this figure will be 615 thousand units.

U.S. Department of Labor yesterday before the trading session, reported that industrial prices in September fell relative to the previous month by 0,6% in anticipation of a decline would be 0.3%. Strongly sunk shares of companies operating in the real estate sector. 5% of shares have lost one of the largest U.S. builder Pulte Homes, and shares of the world's largest retailer of goods for the resettlement house Home Depot have fallen in price by 2,4%. Much more favorable trading session ended for the manufacturer of computers and other equipment - the company Apple, published immediately after the previous auction. Reported in the IV quarter 2008-2009 financial year ending 26 September 2009., Apple's net profit grew by 46% - to 1,66 billion dollars, while sales increased by 25% - to 9,87 billion U.S. Sales of handsets and laptop companies surpassed analysts' forecasts, and quotes Apple up bidding jumped 5.25%.

markedly enhance its capitalization due to quarterly data managed bank Bank of New York Mellon (6,1%), the company UnitedHealth (4,2%), as well as office equipment manufacturer Lexmark (15,9%). Before trading began its quarterly results, presented and manufacturer of earth moving and construction equipment Caterpillar, which reported that up to the III quarter of 2009-year net profit fell more than doubled, reaching $ 392 million compared with $ 876 million for the same period a year earlier. Revenues decreased by 44% to at least $ 7.3 billion, however, the data were higher than analysts' expectations, and shares of Caterpillar as a result of increased in price by 3%.

The oil futures market brands Brent and Light Sweet traded in negative zone, which was due mainly to profit-taking and long liquidation, after yesterday morning the oil market for the first time in more than a year, has struck up a psychological resistance level of $ 80 per barrel.

Recall that for the previous week, oil prices on the stock exchanges rose on average by 15%, forming a strong increase to lock in profits. Only four days last week, an increase in oil prices stood at about 10%, and futures prices for several times renewed their annual highs, which will ultimately weaken the interest in their purchases. Nevertheless, since the beginning of the day prices are not much fell down, which was caused by the situation on the currency market. Strong sales of futures continued to resist the dollar, which continued to decline against the euro, Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

levels of oil this week will be difficult to predict, because so far it is unclear whether the decrease would be oil refineries in the U.S. rate of oil production in the future. The previous week's refining capacity load factor fell by 4.1%. Meanwhile, oil prices are still below the annual maximum. A weaker dollar could theoretically further push oil prices higher as investors hoped for a gradual increase in the global economy still does not pass, but the rise in prices, which is based only on optimism, not unlimited. Consumer spending and the global economy is still too unstable to ensure that prices were kept above $ 80 a barrel.

Today in Russia after the opening of the market in light minus a day will continue this trend, because quite clearly there is a struggle between bulls who believe in the rise in oil prices and bear, who fear massive speculation in commodity markets.

advised to pay attention to the index of mortgage lending in the U.S., which will be released at 15:00 Moscow time, and reports of U.S. companies Boeing, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo.

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