2009 budget was expected unfulfilled. Nevertheless, in 2010, the fiscal pressures on the economy will continue to increase, and the VAT refund will be almost suspended.

As expected, in mid-January the country did not recognize the outcome of the implementation of the 2009 budget. Official websites Ministry of Finance, State Treasury, the Cabinet, and even the President kept stony silence on this subject (the latter is true, most likely due to the lack of any information).

However, even in such "sensitive" conditions we were able to profiteer enough information on the implementation of a profitable part of the 2009 budget.

about the past

By year end General Fund budget received 172.2 billion UAH. Accordingly, in December coffers replenished 20 billion UAH. Thus, year-end budget execution amounted to 93,3%, and the shortfall has exceeded 12.4 billion UAH. This means that the deficit General Fund budget (scheduled and unscheduled) reached 21.8 billion UAH., Or about 2,4% of GDP. It seems to be modest, but if it does not take into account that the deficit of the Special Fund, even under the plan was provided in the amount of 22.2 billion UAH.
In addition, you should not zabyvatproblem Pension Fund, local budgets and NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy.
    

However, the December 20 billion UAH. in any case is yet another "miracle" and is clearly related to the fact that the head of the Cabinet had hidden in his sleeve yet another ace - by the way, this possibility is not ruled by experts. As a result, de jure shortfalls in budget revenues was much smaller than predicted by experts in early autumn.
   

Recall: previous ace, originally not in the deck, was the November admission to the General Fund budget of 14 billion UAH. IMF funds. The fact that no "tricks" could not have done and this time, is confirmed by simple calculations.
   

In January - November proportion of the collection of payments that are fixed for Tax Administration, the total income of the General Fund amounted to nearly 50% (excluding VAT refund). But in view of November"s "focus" with the means of the IMF. But without this share of Tax Administration in 2009 was greater than ever - almost 54%. In December, State Tax Administration has collected in the General Fund budget 7.6 billion UAH. It is reasonable to assume that the maximum of the same amount was to be assembled and all the other stuffs treasury. If one considers that while 1.2 billion UAH. the budget was recovered, it follows that the December revenues were up about 14 billion UAH., and not 20 billion UAH.
   

Our assumptions about the nature of this "miracle" are as follows. First, in the composition of income would almost certainly have been credited with a small remaining two billion UAH allocated from the IMF funds. Secondly, the Cabinet, apparently, a good "shod" local budgets - for a total precipitate economic transfers from local budgets to the state in 2009 even exceeded their scope in 2008 and amounted to 7.6 billion UAH. Thirdly, some assistance to the Government could provide the NBU, which is more - more inclined to do so than to the following of the wishes of the President. Finally, fourthly, the Cabinet resolved in December to reimburse the VAT in the amount of only 1,2 billion UAH. against 3.2 billion UAH. according to plan. Accordingly, year-end VAT was refunded in the amount of 34.5 billion UAH. That 2 billion UAH. lower than the 2009 budget.

non-return businesses money not only led to record growth remains unrecovered sums (they have already reached 21.8 billion UAH.) budget and debt recovery, but will artificially inflate the performance of budget revenues by a corresponding amount.
 
   

As the main revenue sources, they behave more or less predictable. For example, a radical reduction of income tax in 2009, it was obvious to everyone except, perhaps, "draw" a handsome government budget. As a result, compared with last year, even in nominal dimension are reduced by almost 1,5 times. In the real - "tax" the profits of companies was the lowest for the past five years.
   

But to consume (at least in monetary terms) less we seem not to have. Some increase in income "internal" VAT, possibly suggesting exactly that. Preservation of individual income tax revenues (which again became the second largest revenue sources consolidated budget), almost at the level of 2008, should perhaps indicate that at least the nominal incomes of citizens to the authorities managed to keep at close to their previous level. Although in both these cases, the amount of income part could affect and increased activity of Tax.
    

But with the sharp increase in excise tax revenues all clear. In the short term, substantial and repeated increase their rates (primarily tobacco) have played a positive role for the budget. Due to this, in particular, managed to cut half the shortfall on income tax. However, the behavior of the market in the long term while talking early. For example, major smuggling scheme in a week or two to set up and run is hardly possible.
  

It is also curious that the crisis seriously (exactly half) changed the composition of the ten largest taxpayers expense. Among such, and in 2008,
and in 2009 were listed NAK "Naftogaz Ukraine", CJSC "Kyivstar GSM", JSC "Inguletsky GOK, JSC" Mittal Steel Krivoy Rog "and OAO" North GOK. But dozens of the largest VAT payers much more stable. Among the newcomers to appear only the South-West Railway and unaware JSC "UkrGazEnergo, which pushed the OJSC" Ukrnafta "and GP" Energy Market ".

about the future

Although the budget for 2010 (not without the efforts of the Government, by the way - ed.) has not been adopted, it is clear that the state without "purse" can not remain. In overnight became known, even among laymen article 46 of the Budget Code of budget financing of the current year prior to the adoption of the Act will be made within 1 /12 of the 2009 budget during each of the months. Note that already the norm untie the hands of the government, primarily because the monthly budget financing in 2009 - this is not the same as that of last year"s funding in January, February or perhaps March. In favor of empowering the Cabinet on the issue of budgetary expenditures and said another provision of the same article - in accordance with the funding should be allocated only to those goals, which were included in both the 2009 budget and approved by the government draft budget for 2010.
   

steeper seem possible Cabinet relating to revenue collection. The fact is that on this Budget Code contains only vaguely mention of the fact that, say, income in bezbyudzhetnoe "time to be collected as they gathered under the previous budget, and other regulations. In other words, completely leaves the definition of the size of the income distribution by source of income, region, etc. at the mercy of the government.
   

Finally, on the eve of New Year - December 29 - Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko signed the decree of Cabinet of Ministers № 1414 "On measures to organize the budget process in 2010." Thus, the new substitute for the budget approved this document, it replaces the pre-prepared - the decision of the Cabinet of Ministers № 1181 of 29.10.09 "On measures to enforce the State budget and local budgets in 2010. Fundamental changes that castling, incidentally, did not contribute. Is that an indication of the order disappeared on indexation of scholarships in 2010 in accordance with the Law "On indexation of money incomes of citizens."
   

It is in this order fixed annual amount of income of the Consolidated Budget, the basis of which the Ministry of Finance plans to receipt of the first three months of this year. Represents she 328.3 billion UAH. This, of course, significantly less than what is contained in the submitted to the Parliament the draft budget-2010, which featured 359.4 billion UAH. Consolidated revenue budget. However, if we assume that the share of GDP redistributed through the budget left to Cabinet at the same level (30.5%), it follows that the Cabinet expects to have up to the 2010 GDP of nearly UAH 1.1 trillion. Considering that in2009, the GDP amounted to - at best - 920 billion UAH. (and more likely - not more than 910 billion UAH.), it turns out that the Cabinet expects GDP growth in nominal dimension of almost 20%. When projected, again Cabinet, growth in real terms to 3.76% (in fact it would probably be less - ed.) Index-deflator of GDP to be around 15.4%. However, price indices, referred to in the Cabinet, much lower ...
   

"Nestykovochki" in the budget planning of the Cabinet (if it can be called such) that we found by calculation, not less clearly manifested in practice. Deputy Finance Minister Anatoly Myarkovsky Dec. 24 and signed with the letter № 31-12010-105-24/35467 sent to ministries and departments of the Interim Plan of the General Fund revenues of the state budget of Ukraine for I quarter of 2010 (budget revenue and expenditure). At the disposal of business was that portion that relates to payments controlled by the State Tax Administration. And what do we see? And the fact that stuffy Mr. Myarkovskim with the filing of Ms. Tymoshenko"s revenue growth for the General Fund budget of their actual income in the same period last year in the I quarter amounted to 41%! And, say, in February - 70,7%!
    

According to the promises of the prime minister, the country"s economy will overcome the crisis is about, just two months (well, really very difficult to convince people that this has already happened). But by February, will be only one of these two, and income tax altogether will pay for the crisis IV quarter of 2009, so from where can take such a frenzied growth in income?

Creek soul

Interestingly, even before signing Anatoly Myarkovskim Interim Budget painted head Serhiy Buriak STAU tried to trigger a proactive, sending to the First Vice-Premier Alexander Turchinov letter № 1455/3/99-1 from 18.12.09 "On forecasting Income payments to the budget by region. The letter focuses on, shall we say, peculiarities of the budget planning, implemented by the Ministry of Finance in 2009, in particular, the head of State Tax Administration in a letter complains that "excessive budget plan for income during their execution are transformed into undue pressure on the real economy." And lead exemplary situation with the planning of income tax: when the quarterly timing of this tax the Finance Ministry has planned his arrival in January 2009 amounting to 1.1 billion UAH. In March - 1.76 billion UAH. In December - 6 billion UAH.

"Such imbalances jobs tax authorities are obliged to compensate the expense of other reserves and additional activities that affect the stability of the budget process and does not contribute to forming a positive image of the taxpayers" tax service," - says the country"s chief tax collector.
    

However, only crooked planning problem is not limited. Another side of it is that the system itself is planning to bring the situation of insanity - in minfinovskoy Paintings "only payments which are controlled by the State Tax Administration, there are 12 thousand indicators! All this leads to the fact that the plans are taken from the ceiling and are the ordinary fiction. As a result of distortions, for example, to implement the plan proceeds of the excise tax on different areas in 2007 amounted 41,6-158,6% in 2008 - 54,2-144,5%. Income tax rates similar to 2007 - 89,1-169,7%, 2008 - 91,9-153,7%. VAT, respectively, 79,7-107,2% in 2007 and 79,7-146,6% - in 2008
   However, the study Paintings

-2010 shows that nothing at the budget planning has not changed. In some areas, the Ministry of Finance scheduled for I quarter 2010 revenue growth exceeding 500% (or even not measurable, as in the case of the Mykolaiv region, which in the I quarter of 2009, the VAT refund exceeds all the income). In others either planned growth is minimal or does planned reduction of income! The situation is similar to the collection of taxes (assuming no refund of VAT): one area should be transferred to the treasury almost in 1,8 times more than in I quarter of 2009, other transfers may even be reduced.
   

naive, of course, to think that we are dealing with an amateur Ministry of Finance. This tempting conclusion, in particular, the fact that this ministry is exactly fulfilled campaign promises of Yulia Tymoshenko, in fact, block the VAT refund. Almost half of the planned increase in the I quarter-controlled STAU income (which is 6.2 billion UAH.) Is expected to get the most simple way - through non-repayment of VAT. In any case, the plan of reimbursement for I quarter 2010 nearly 2.6 billion UAH. less than the amount actually reimbursed VAT payers in the I quarter of 2009 (4.4 billion UAH. against 7.1 billion UAH.).

a result of such planning, we have the following. First of all, do not correlate with the dynamics of nominal GDP (as in I quarter it be good if will grow by 7-8%) plan to increase revenue collection to 15.8% means a further strengthening of the fiscal pressures on the economy. However, in the Cabinet seem to have guessed that wrest business substantially more money is simply unrealistic.

Therefore, in addition to direct increased pressure will increase it indirectly - through non-repayment of VAT. As mentioned above, is January 1, the general remains unrecovered VAT reached 21.8 billion UAH. And overdue - 6.2 billion UAH. New applications for the three months, likely will be filed at 10,5-11 billion UAH. Of which will be reimbursed according to the Budget murals, 4.4 billion UAH. It is easy to calculate that such a rate as of April unrepaired VAT already reached 28-28,5 billion UAH. As arrears to the state economy - about 12.5 billion UAH.

On the one hand, these figures demonstrate very clearly that meant acting Prime Minister under the release of the Ukrainian economy from the crisis. On the other - the order of numbers is no doubt that this money was ever going to give. Suspicious in this context, sounds, and another promise of Yulia Tymoshenko concerning VAT. Now she promises that after the election of its president "finally resolve the issue VAT.

Any of the possible options for solutions (abolition of VAT, together with the "forgiveness" of debt, surrogacy debt or devaluation of the hryvnia wild) promises a few pleasant creditors budget. And the volume of debt threaten to be such that the question of their neotdachi in any form is unlikely to depend on the specific personalities in the state leadership and the Cabinet.

Vladislav Tretiak

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