Odessa Port Factory State valued at 4 billion UAH. This is the initial price of privatization tender. Is it justified?
I am 16 years old participating in the privatization process and the plant will not know what to say about this. The company many times in preparation for sale, then the process is suspended. And now we can not say with confidence that history does not repeat itself again, - Chairman of the breeds hands Odessa port plant Valery Gorbatko.
answer to the question whether a one of the most important events in the Ukrainian privatization practice, 29 September (appointed date of the auction), and no analysts. Meanwhile, they are confidently assured, that to sell the Ukrainian blue chips should have been even two years ago, when obtained for it was $ 1 billion How much is IPF today?
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As noted in the press-service of State Property Fund, an enterprise perspective, and this has led to such a high assessment of the IPF specialists departments. In turn, the experts believe the price of state overstated. The fundamental assessment of the Odessa port factory is located in the range of $ 250-350 million (2-2,8 billion UAH. - Ed.) From the multiplier 6-8 EBITDA over the past 12 months, - Vitaly Strukov calculated, department head of investment - banking services to Concorde Capital.
is worth recalling that in nekrizisnoe when, in 2008 FGIU already tried to sell the plant, the price of 3 bln. In his view, the strategic position of the company in the market and the synergies that can get some of the buyers, may be paid premium, and the price can exceed this range in the case of increased competition on Auctions.
reducing factor prices are the obligations for the investor, described in the auction terms that require the prospective owner of unimpeded access of exporters to the complex handling of ammonia in the framework established by the Ministry of Industrial Policy of quotas and tariffs for the establishment of unified transshipment of these products. At the same time, if the previously anticipated harmonization of tariffs potential owner with the Ministry of Economy and Ministry of Industrial Policy, now he must negotiate with the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine.
In addition, as noted by Dmitri Horoshun, Senior Analyst, IT Socrates, the situation in the domestic Chimprom could deteriorate even more. For example, the IPF can stop at all (the synthesis of ammonia, and possibly even the production of urea).
In this case, investors will be less than or price for the auction results may not be much higher than the primary. $ 4 billion - quite justifiable price for the sale of a strategic investor, especially those with access to raw materials - natural gas, added the analyst. Furthermore, if the auction is open and applicants will be few, the price may rise. However, we do not expect the end result will exceed $ 750 million, - concluded Mr. Horoshun. Agree with his assessment and analyst IC Troika Dialog Ukraine Peter Keller. In his view, at best, the final price of the Odessa port plant could reach $ 700 million
Who buys IPF?
At this time of crisis for the construction and commissioning of new capacities for production of mineral fertilizers in the world stopped. Therefore, as soon as the market demand for fertilizers will recover and prices to rise as soon as it was a year and a half ago, when due to lack of volume of production prices for some groups of fertilizer increased by more than two times less than a year. Now, most likely, prices did not grow up so fast, but requires a substantial increase in order to ensure the profitability of producers. A strategist who knows, may be interested in podeshevevshem IPF, said Vitaly Strukov.
Meanwhile, many analysts believe that current market conditions, only Russian players to the price of gas at about $ 70 per thousand cubic meters (which allows the ammonia is much cheaper) will be interested to bid at a price higher than the primary.
At the same time, the prospect of the sale of IPF is uncertain. The chemical company has been affected by the crisis and for the moment do not have large funds to invest. This limits the number of potential buyers. Ambitious initial price and the political risks associated with the presidential election could once again stop the privatization process.
Irina Chernyavskaya
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