cheaper dollar - expensive stock!
Today's top trading on Russia's stock market, with a neutral external environment was predictable, approximately 0.5% higher than yesterday's market close. In the future, with the opening of European stock pads most of the Russian blue chips went to a small negative territory. Nevertheless, at the moment of panic selling in the market are not observed, but the market continues to consolidate won a record yesterday for the 2009 Mr. positions. Thus, at 13:38 Moscow time, Russia's main indicators of the market, the MICEX and RTS indices, traded in different direction. Due to a slight strengthening of the dollar, after a prolonged weakening, the RTS index is somewhat better than the MICEX Index, adding 0.22% (1337.85 n). Ruble MICEX index decreases by 0.96% (1266 on). Yesterday's auction of the ocean again finished moderate growth: Dow Jones closed in positive territory at 0.63% (9786.87 n), and a broad market indicator S P500 added even more, 0,747%, while its value at the close was 1,065.48 p . Dynamics of contracts for difference of U.S. indexes, which is an indicator of investor sentiment on the U.S. market opening today, is neutral. Dow is a symbolic contango by about 5 points, or 0.05%.
Quotations black gold, after declining reserves of crude oil and despite the increase in stocks distsillyatov and gasoline in the U.S. last Wednesday confidently entrenched near the mark 70 dollars /barrel. Quotes oil futures are attempting to return to the medium-term rising trend (from March 2009), but the range of 68-70 dollars per barrel for Brent-have so far looks insurmountable. It seems, in the foreseeable future is waiting for us to continue vysokovolatilnyh fluctuations in the oil market is held after a sharp rise in volatility over the past two to three weeks. Current value of oil futures with the nearest expiration, the Brent-WTI y and are, respectively, 69.33 dollars /barrel and 71.22 dollars /barrel, which is about 0.5 dollars higher than the values at the closure of Russia's market yesterday.
As quotations Russian blue chips, then to 13:20 Moscow time, Russia's main most liquid stocks continue to show differently directed momentum to yesterday's close. In the negative zone includes Gazprom shares, losing 0.11% (178.60 USD), Norilsk Nickel 2,2% (3770 USD), Rosneft 1,52% (239,80 USD), Sberbank 0.62% (65.82 USD), VTB 2,44% (0.0641 USD). Better the market shares appear Lukoil and Surgutneftegaz, liquidating our existing backlog in the dynamics of the shares in Rosneft. Growth in these actions is, respectively, 0.77% (1,809.40 USD) and 0.56% (27.22 USD).
Among the important news today is that there remain the ECB's interest rate at the same level, a threat to the Lukoil losing one of its strategic shareholders and a sharp drop in sales Avtovaz for 9 months 2009
keeping the base interest rate at 1.0% would, according to the ECB to stimulate economic growth in the medium term without risking a substantial increase in inflation. Positive news were confirmed to stabilize the economy and plans for the euro area the ECB not to raise the base interest rate in the foreseeable future, so as not to hinder the pace of economic recovery. According to our estimates, this news should have a positive impact on global capital markets. We note that investors reacted positively to the statements by Heads of the ECB. The regulator said the stabilization of the economy, with no plans to increase the base interest rates. In addition, the ECB is concerned about the strengthening of the euro, which could harm exporters, further evidence in favor of plans to maintain the base interest rate at relatively low levels. We believe that in the short-term preservation of the base interest rate at low levels will put pressure on the euro. Nevertheless, in the medium term, generally more conservative monetary policy of the ECB, in comparison with the actions taken by other major central banks worldwide will further strengthen the euro.
intention to sell the assets of ConocoPhillips for $ 10 probably means the partial sale of 20% of its shares owned by Lukoil. While the tried and tested over the years the relationship between the companies is unlikely to weaken, market participants may perceive this as negative news. U.S. oil company ConocoPhillips, which owns 20% stake in Lukoil, announced its intention in the next two years to sell some of its assets to $ 10 billion goal of this sale, according to the company, is a partial repayment of debt amounting to more than $ 30 billion, ConocoPhillips Although not disclosed, what assets the company intends to sell, it is likely that it will sell part of its stake in LUKoil. To date, the market price of 20% stake in Lukoil is just about $ 10 billion, however, most likely, in a statement ConocoPhillips, it was not only about the sale of shares of Lukoil. Therefore, we expect that ConocoPhillips will sell its stake in LUKoil completely. Since it would have looked like not very user-friendly step.
decreasing sales AvtoVAZ in January-September 2009 to 43,5% mnogomillirdnym lead to losses for the year. Nevertheless, we note that the dynamics of falling sales of AvtoVAZ looks better than the average decline of Russia's passenger car market. We evaluate the news as negative. Reduced sales AvtoVAZ almost 1,8 times lead to a multibillion-dollar losses in 2009. Management expects a loss at the level of 35,7 billion rubles, but we do not rule out more b #243; Higher amount of damages. Nevertheless, we note that the dynamics of decrease in sales of AvtoVAZ looks better than the average for the sector. According to the Association of European business, sales of passenger cars in Russia for 9 months of 2009 decreased by 51%.
Regarding the overall situation in the market, currently in the spectrum of blue chips on many stocks recovered a growing trend. We recommend that you keep the position across the spectrum of blue chips with the exception of Gazprom, Norilsk Nickel and FSC noticeably lagging behind the average market dynamics. With respect to shares of companies of the second tier, in this segment, we remain, remain positive outlook on the long-term prospects for equities of small and mid-cap, with a stable business model and a low debt load and recommend long-term hold positions in the shares of such issuers. Among them we note the action with triple-digit growth potential on the horizon of 1-2 years: Asha Metallurgical Plant, Bamtonnelstroy, Silvinit, WGC-2, WGC-3, Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrates Plant, Machine Plant Elektrostal , Severstal and Ammofos. In connection with the achievement of quotations Mechel and Kuzbassrazrezugol target price, we recommend to record profits in stocks data issuers.
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Recommendations for market shares: LUKoil, Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Gazprom, Mosenergo, Surgutneftegaz, Sberbank
Factor Friday, investors will have the desire to partially fix for the week earned good profit