bloated budget deficit and national debt - they have now become the cause of growing fear of sovereign risk in many developed economies. Traditionally home to the majority of sovereign risks were developing countries - Russia, Argentina and Ecuador, which in the past decade defaulted on its gosobyazatelstvam as Pakistan, Ukraine and Uruguay had barely been able to avoid them.

But in recent years, most developing countries were able to improve the balance of the budget, reducing the overall deficit, reducing the ratio of "public sector debt /GDP ratio and reducing the number of mismatches and liabilities by maturity in the structure of government debt. As a result, sovereign risk - the problem is more developed than developing countries.

Indeed, the downgrade, the expansion of sovereign spreads, the failed auctions to sell state bonds in the UK, Spain, Ireland and Greece last year were a good reminder: if developed countries do not roll in the order of its finances, investors, players in the bond market and rating agencies may become of his friends into enemies.

current recession will worsen the budgets of developed countries. The hardest thing had to States in which the budget problems have already become a tradition. Through uncertain financial policy in the period of economic growth, they ignored the holding of the necessary reforms. A slow recovery of the economy and aging population will increase in future debt burden in many rich countries, including USA, UK, Japan and several countries in the eurozone.

Even more frightening looks monetization of budget deficits, which have already adopted a number of developed countries. Beginning of buying short-and long-term state bonds, their central banks began to increase the monetary base in the country. Ultimately, large monetized fiscal deficits increase inflation expectations, which can dramatically increase the profitability of long-term state bonds and pull up by the root of the fragile economic recovery.

fiscal stimulus - generally a difficult question. Politicians swear, if they introduce measures to stimulate the economy and if you do not. Rejecting the incentive (by raising taxes and reducing costs), they can plunge the economy back into recession, while allowing the budget deficit to grow further, create a stranglehold on economic growth.

For countries "Club Mediterranean", within the eurozone - Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal, the national debt problem becomes even more difficult because they have lost competitiveness in world markets. These states have lost export shares in foreign markets - "gave" them to China and other Asian countries with low added value and cost of labor.

recent sharp rise of the euro exacerbated the problem of competitiveness, so as further depressed growth and increased budgetary imbalances. Now the question is, will want these countries to undertake the painful fiscal consolidation and to prevent the devaluation of the developments in the Argentine scenario - a way out of monetary union, currency devaluation and default. Latvia and Hungary have already demonstrated their willingness to do so. But I want to go to such painful measures, Greece, Spain and other States to the eurozone?

Japan and the United States last faced with the fury of securities market participants: the dollar - the main reserve currency in the world, and international reserves, mainly in the form of state bonds and U.S. Treasury bills, continue to actively grow. Japan itself is a creditor, and finances its public sector debt mainly due to the resources of the domestic market. But investors are increasingly wary and to these countries if they do not begin to organize the situation in the fiscal area. USA - "clean" the debtor with an aging population, large subsidies for health, slow economic recovery and the risk of further monetization of fiscal deficits.

Japan is aging even faster than the U.S., economic stagnation reduces the level of savings of the population, and the level of public debt creeps to 200% of the national GDP. If the parliamentary elections in November, Democrats will lose the Republicans, will be the risk that the problem of budget deficit the U.S. has still not been resolved. The Republicans will veto the tax increase, Democrats now vetiruyut budget cuts.

But if the decline in real value of its debt of U.S. decide to use the inflation tax, the risk of a falling dollar will increase. Foreign creditors will accept the U.S. is not a sharp decline in the real value of their dollar reserves, and the rout of investors from the dollar would lead to the collapse of the currency, the rise of long-term interest rates and the second wave of deep recession.