Persistence of the market in the unwillingness to decline gradually finds confirmation in macroeconomic statistics, coming from the United States - such as yesterday"s index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector showed the level of 58.4 points against the expected value of 55 points. Against this background, by the way, the American indexes have shown good growth, while oil prices jumped up by more than 2%. Although, as is the case with a post on Friday, the U.S. GDP, the market may not develop a strong upward movement in response to improved economic performance - the more so phenomenally high levels of unemployment and deficits in state budgets had taken a catastrophic nature. In addition, the good news on the U.S. that go along with bad news on the European economy, supporting the dollar, which could adversely affect the cost of raw materials.
At this controversial background of Russia"s market yesterday showed restrained lateral movement, although some papers and looked much better than the market. First of all, it is Gazprom"s shares, which showed 1,68% on MICEX on the background of the published IFRS for 9 months of 2009. The accounts showed the excess of the forecast profit and revenue, and so pleased with the market.
In addition, we have seen an impressive rally in the regional telecom sector: February 3 meeting will be the coordinating council of Svyazinvest, which will be announced on the coefficients of conversion of securities in the paper MRK Rostelecom. We believe, therefore, that this growth can continue, but we also believe that the main number of market participants, "makes the weather" in these papers, the approximate coefficients are already known in advance, and therefore adhere to the growth of MRK shares may already be too late .
As for the overall market, the MICEX technical chart analysis allows us to predict a rebound in the coming days for quotations up, especially since oil prices have not gone down an important support at $ 71 a barrel varieties Brent, a U.S. indexes after the breakdown of long-term upward trend should be to bounce before further fall. Thus, we expect the rebound, but did not believe, however, that this rebound will lead to a significant growth market, and we recommend that you use it to close long positions.
Today:
Leading global markets rose on Monday: German DAX 0,81%, Britain"s FTSE 1,14%, DJIA 1,13%. Asian markets this morning are not uniform dynamics, with the Japanese Nikkei225 shows 1,63%. Futures on the S P500 demonstrate change to -0.21%.
Pair EUR /USD is in the € /$ 1,3930, and USD /JPY - in $ /#165; 90,63. Gold is worth $ 1.105,11 per troy ounce, silver - $ 16.68 per troy ounce, copper - $ 6,752, and nickel - $ 17,940 per metric ton.
Yields for UST-2 0,86; for UST-10 3,66.
Oil prices over the past 24 hours rose $ 1.33 to $ 73.24 per barrel varieties Brent.
At 10.00 GMT in the EU will Eurozone producer price index for December (Euro-Zone PPI, forecast 0,00%).
At 15.00 GMT in the U.S. went data on the change of outstanding transactions on sale of housing for December (Pending Home Sales, forecast 1,00%).
So, today, we expect growth of quotations of securities.
MICEX (Daily):
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