In Kyrgyzstan, while predicting a positive growth of the economy in 2010, but expected a very large budget deficit. Moreover, has not yet received the promised Russia a loan for the construction Kambar-Ata HPP-1.
addition to economic difficulties in Kyrgyzstan is still not resolved and the energy crisis. Officials hope that this year the republic still receive the promised loan and Russia will be able to launch the most ambitious project for the years of independence in the energy to build Kambar-Ata HPP-1. Back in February last year during the visit of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in Moscow an agreement was reached on the allocation of part of Russia unprecedented financial assistance amounting to over two billion dollars.
First Republic received two tranches - $ 150 million gratuitous grant will cover the domestic budget deficit, and another 300 million soft loan were transferred to the Development Fund of Kyrgyzstan, which is now actually under the control of the Kyrgyz President"s son, Maxim Bakiyev. However, the main credit of 1 billion 700 million dollars to build a hydroelectric power station has not received.
The government believe that the cause of the economic crisis
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According to the Minister of Finance of Kyrgyzstan Marat Sultanov, is associated exclusively with the world economic crisis. There are no political differences between the two countries there, said in an interview with Deutsche welle head of the Finance Ministry.
"During a crisis, all countries are adjusting their investment programs and opportunities. The most important thing for Russia to us openly and clearly set deadlines, we are also can not wait indefinitely", - said Marat Sultanov.
According to him, this credit is not given by the Kyrgyz Government, and co-joint stock company, which should build Kambar-Ata HPP-1. "This is a joint-stock company has already created, from Kyrgyzstan have all been prepared, now all left for the Russians", - said Marat Sultanov.
"In addition to economic and political problems there ..."
Member of National Parliament, the leader of the Communist faction claims Masaliev believes that the political aspect is still present. Masaliyev recalled that it was in Moscow on the day of signing the agreement on the allocation of credit, President Bakiyev said the withdrawal of American air base. However, later on this base, in fact, still remained in Kyrgyzstan. Perhaps that is why Russia and not in a hurry to disburse the pledged money, believes Masaliev.
"Negotiations between the governments attending. I think there are issues other than economic and political, such as United States military base in Kyrgyzstan. Not everyone in Russia is clearly perceived. As far as I know, Russia"s Prime Minister, cool refers to this initiative, "- said Ishak Masaliev.
Kyrgyz political scientist Marat Kazakpaev sure that the American air base here to do with it. The issue with the database, he said, was agreed with Moscow. But only with the economic crisis delaying loan from Russia Marat Kazakpaev also does not bind.
"Even on this score there are many speculations, for example, that the first two tranches of 150 and 300 million have passed through our commercial banks. And this is generally inadmissible, and if this is true, then the fault is on our side. Nevertheless, I think that the main credit is still forthcoming, it is profitable and Russia ", - said Marat Kazakpaev.
the eve of the new year Russia"s ambassador to Kyrgyzstan, Valentin Vlasov said that agreement on the loan for the construction of Kambar-Ata hydroelectric power station remain in force. But denote any specific dates diplomat did not.
budget deficit and the growth of socio-political tensions
Beyond expectations
loan from Russia is now in search of Kyrgyzstan and other external loans. Ensuing year for the republic would be rather complicated. The budget deficit will grow by several times and is expected to reach over 300 million dollars. One-fifth of all planned expenditures of the state in 2010. Expected growth and inflation, while the government predicts that its level be able to keep within the limits of 10.5 percent. However, in the opinion of MP Nikolai Bailo, weather this is unlikely to be justified. The main reason for this will be introduced by the Government of the multiple increase in tariffs for energy, said in an interview with Deutsche welle Nikolai Bailo.
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"will increase prices of all goods and services and not by 2-3 per cent, as stated by our Prime Minister. Inflation will be at least 20 percent!" And then the NSC wouldstart with the machinations of figures. This is the socio-economic disaster for Kyrgyzstan "- said the parliamentarian.
deteriorating socio-economic situation certainly will impact on political stability in Kyrgyzstan, says political scientist Marat Kazakpaev. "First of all, it would trump the opposition. I do not think there will be major social protest, but people will grow silent protest, and this is the worst. This leads to social tension and, of course, political instability," - said Kazakpaev.
"ruling circles much hurry to something"
According to the leader of the opposition party Ata-Meken, the former speaker of the Kyrgyz parliament Omurbek Tekebayev, in the coming year and expect major political changes, which are prepared by senior management of the republic. This, according to Tekebayev, revealed by recent changes in state government, which resulted in extensive powers received the President"s son Maxim Bakiev, as well as expected amendments to the constitution and all the same very sharp increase energy prices. According to Tekebayev, the parliament approved the strategy of the energy sector and, in particular, the schedule of tariff increases, according to which today"s price should have been introduced only in 2013. The leader of the party, Ata-Meken "recalls that the documents approved by Parliament, have the highest legal force.
"The new government failed to pay attention to it and unilaterally violated the approved schedule. All this speaks of an unknown factor to us, which creates a shortage of time. rulers much in a hurry for something," - said Tekebayev.
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Alexander Tokmakov, Bishkek
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