As the whole economy, the Ukrainian banking system remains in a state of permanent stress. While the liquidity situation is gradually beginning to improve, growing non-payments on loans, sky-high amounts of losses and the threat of new frankly populist initiatives of Parliament did not allow bankers to sleep peacefully.

According to the latest figures published by the NBU with considerable delay, in July, deposits in the banking system increased by 2.2 billion UAH. Thus, starting from April, when the renewed inflow of deposits, the growth reached almost 10 billion UAH. (5.1%). However, against a background of expectations of population growth devalvatsionnyh deposits in UAH in July decreased by 1.5% compared to June, while deposits in foreign currency - rose by 3.1% (in dollar terms).

At the same time, deposits yurlits continue to steadily decline (in July - to 1,3 billion UAH., and the total outflow in January-July amounted to 25,8 bln., or 18%). Company doedayut their holdings to finance ongoing activities.

Although apparently all is not so bad: yurlits loans in local currency - this is the only segment of the credit market, where a positive trend. The volume of such loans over the past seven months grew by 12%. But it hardly reflects credit on the renewal of activity: the lion's share of loans issued by state bank loans to state enterprises account for ( Naftogaz, coal companies, aircraft companies) through the issue of resources NBU.

Total bank loans in July, almost unchanged, and since the beginning of the year, banks have reduced loan portfolio to 2.6%. Virtually all finuchrezhdeniya stop lending to the population, resulting in a credit for natural persons in January-July of this year decreased by 10%.

Recently, increasingly heard in the address of bank charges that they do not lend to the real economy, in spite of the considerable excess liquidity. Indeed, at the end of July, the total amount of funds on correspondent banks in the National Bank of Ukraine was 24,6 billion UAH., More than twice the level of reserves (11.6 bln.). However, liquidity - are not the only factor influencing decisions about granting loans. More importantly, asset quality and the main indicators of the economy (GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate). So long as the volume of non-payment of loans granted has continued to grow, and devalvatsionnye expectations - to rise, expect a full-scale resumption of lending difficult.

Yes, and the liquidity situation was still uncertain. In recent months, the main inflow of deposits accounted for by short-term (up to six months) deposits. Therefore, even a slight worsening in the economic or the political sphere can be the detonator, which would lead to another wave of flight of deposits.

However, the situation in Ukraine is not unique. For example, the assets of the Federal Reserve System (the central United States) over the past two years has increased almost threefold. And the bulk of this increase occurred in loans to banks (as well as for the purchase of non-securities). And in the commitments of the Federal Reserve during the same period has increased the proportion of deposits banks. That is, U.S. banks prefer to keep funds on correspondent accounts in the central bank, trying to avoid credit risks that are often assessed as too high. A similar situation is observed in the euro zone.

The main problem for banks is the growing amount of overdue loans. According to the NBU, by the end of June, the share of problem loans (classified as doubtful and bad) in total loan portfolio of the banking system stood at 5.6%. Actual amounts of the same delay is likely much higher.

sharp increase in problem loans was the main cause of large losses of banks in the year. At the end of June, the total loss of the banking system amounted to 14.3 bln. (more than half of those losses (7.6 billion) accounted for two problem banks - Ukrprombank and Rodovid Bank ). Number of unprofitable finuchrezhdeny in the second quarter increased from 41 to 64.

in the first half of the volume of bank reserves generated by problem loans has increased almost six times as compared to the same period last year and amounted to 32 bln.

But here too not all unique. Some banks, despite the high proportion of problem loans, do not form sufficient reserves and declare a profit. While others - use a more conservative approach, creating large reserves. Thus, the published rates of profits and losses do not necessarily show the real financial situation of the bank.

Finally - a few words on a hot topic of banking. After several months of delays in June, was finally launched on the mechanism of problem banks recapitalize the state, and three banks have already started in full or in part to fulfill commitments to customers.

However, problems and concerns remain. First, is still not resolved the issue with the bank Nadra and Ukrprombank, the total amount of deposits of natural persons which is about 15 billion UAH. Secondly, there are suggestions that a number of banks have been instances in the withdrawal of assets (for example, through the issuance of obviously non-credit related entities). And third, due to the rapid increase in the number of overdue debt problem banks are likely to continue to grow. Therefore, finding and implementing effective solutions for these institutions (recapitalization, bankruptcy or reorganization and the merger) - a key condition for maintaining the credibility of the entire banking system.

Dmitry Solohub

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