Ukrainians, who returned from abroad in early August, experienced a real culture shock: jump in the dollar, have never priced in the summer, soaring gasoline prices and filling the city streets with a new political ads of the presidential race.

disappointing economic results of six months could spoil campaign anyone. But not Yulia Tymoshenko, who has long straddled the horse meni not given. On his performance in the whole country, Prime said the slogans: They are blocking. It - is working; They say. It - is working; They betrayed. It - is working.

of a barrel of tar statistical deftly retrieved a spoon of honey. Tymoshenko announced in July that the industry has grown by about five percent compared to June (only due to two additional working days), while the annualized decline remains at almost 30%. It is surprising drop in the hryvnia against the backdrop of reducing the negative trade balance in the first half compared to the same period last year, seven times (according to Goskomstat - fifteen, but it does not matter, because the trade balance has remained in short supply).

Manipulating figures and mass consciousness has only just begun - soon Tymoshenko intends to support the spirit of the country's population through the budget process. Last week, the Prime Minister unveiled the basic parameters of the state budget-2010: maintaining the level of social benefits on the background of Ukraine's GDP growth at three percent.

about the prospects of new promises can be judged by analyzing the old. Discarding the irony callback posters series She, expert analyzed the successes and failures of the Cabinet of Ministers over the past two years.

Who is to blame? They!

budget - is the quintessence of power in all countries, and Ukraine is no exception. Excessive centralization when local budgets are only three per cent generated from its own revenues, and the rest is redistributed through Kiev, - one of the main problems of the budgetary system of the country. Realizing this, Tymoshenko, in May launched a massive PR-campaign for the budget reform. She held a series of press conferences on the plight of local governments. The capital was visited by the mayors and heads of village councils, demanding that the prime minister to provide on site more money, the parliament promptly prepared and adopted a new draft of the Budget Code. However, the correct idea of decentralization of public finances Tymoshenko presented a in such a way that Viktor Yushchenko could not make it not rubbish. The draft law provides not only the devolution of additional funding, but also the right to reallocate all the Cabinet's own budgetary purposes as in the center, and in the field without permission from anyone. The Government is also empowered to establish their own social standards, that is, wages and pensions. It was a dangerous instrument, which gave the government unprecedented leverage manual transfers from the central treasury on the ground that before the election looked like a clear political action - said expert former Finance Minister Mykola Azarov.

Conclusion - head of state signed the law, the Party of Regions refused to overcome the veto, the prime accused his opponents of anti-people policies, and the country continued to live in the old Budget Code. The history of this document shows is not an isolated failure, and a typical welcome: good purpose statement with such conditions as to political opponents have blocked its achievement, and Yulia Tymoshenko was one more reason to loudly declare: I work - they destroy.

It's a pity that the policy to prevent this, deep reforms, including reform of the finance for the benefit of local government, the dreams of the community the last seventeen years, - Tymoshenko commented on the President's veto of the Budget Code. With this statement, she took off the burden of obligations to the local elite and to shift responsibility to their counterparts.

Start and finish

no less often the head of government uses, and another method - the pathos start of a campaign to combat the sort of lack of government, the first positive results and the continuing disregard of the topic in a public space, which in practice results in the aggravation of chaos and corruption. For example, Timoshenko managed to realize one of his campaign promises - to eliminate corruption Tender Chamber. Under the same policy the prime minister ousted from the gas market odious intermediary RosUkrEnergo and strictly forbidden in the country of gambling.

However, the law on public procurement has not been adopted, more than a year inthis area operates a temporary, rather dubious government decree. As a result, the purchase were not removed from the manual control officials. The system of procurement has become more tenizirovannoy. In the absence of legitimate transactions take place in the manual mode, simple decision-making center shifted to the Ministry of Economy. There is gradually shifted people who previously worked in the Tender Chamber, - noted the Chief Scientific Adviser to the Institute of Legislation of the Verkhovna Rada Oleksandr Kirichenko . Bribery in this area actually declined as sharply reduced government spending on the purchase of anything because of the budget deficit.

Quite often loud statement as a result of the government are only empty rhetoric. A striking example of this approach - tax reform. Since December 2007 the first government of at least three times, decide on the need for it: the last statement was dated July of this year. This was the main topic during the brilliant performances of Yulia Tymoshenko to the adoption of the Law on State Budget-2009. But in the intervening period since nothing had been done. The draft Tax Code had not been introduced to the Verkhovna Rada, the document does not exist even in a rough of developments in the Ministry of Finance. Instead of the promised tax cuts (in conjunction with the expansion of tax base), full compensation for VAT arrears (formerly chairman of the State Tax Administration Serhiy Buriak has promised to eliminate it before April 1, 2008), the Government only decided to introduce electronic reporting of VAT and abolished the tax bills . Elimination of bills scheme (scheme unusual export) destroyed one of the most popular ways to budget speculation, and the electronic records in general optimize cooperation Tax and taxpayers. According to first deputy head of the State Tax Administration Alexander Buhanevicha, effectiveness and feasibility of electronic relationship with the Tax Administration assessed the entrepreneurs themselves. If in April 2008, the first reports electronically filed 52,5% of taxpayers, then in August of 2009 - already 86%. Take a virtual relationship with the State Tax Administration were to guarantee the transparency of payment of VAT and its fiscal recovery by reducing the number of audits. Checks actually decreased, but in general it did not reduce the debt on VAT. As a result, by August, according to expert, the total amount of debt to recover this tax amounted to about 16 billion hryvnia.

Yulia Timoshenko failed completely and other tax promises inherent in the never Rada adopted the program Ukrainian Breakthrough with which it entered the elections 2007. In particular, the Government has failed to reform the system of simplified taxation. All attempts to eradicate the abuse with a single tax met with active opposition to lobbyists. Fearing the hurt of the electorate, Tymoshenko has always lagged behind the small and medium-sized lobbyists, often using uproschentsev to save on taxes. According to the Tax Administration, in 2008 from 80 billion hryvnia, that an agency hoped to get in the form of VAT payments by economic entities operating on a simplified scheme of taxation, the budget received only two billion hryvnia.

Before the threat of rebellion of small and medium businesses the Prime Minister has always retreated. For example, on December 20 last year the Government introduced changes to its order number 1118. They require physical persons, who before moving to the simplified system of taxation are subject to VAT, the tax authorities to file a request for cancellation of such registration and submit VAT registration certificate. The document did not last long: in early 2009, lobbyists of all stripes have organized a successful large-scale campaign to abolish harmful, from their point of view, the decision of the Cabinet.

Step Forward, Two Steps Back

strength of the Yulia Tymoshenko - the ability of the entire country to fight their own mistakes. A prime example of such tactics - the imposition on the initiative of deputies from BYuT Sergei Cereals and subsequent removal of 13 per cent premium to the duties on goods imported uncritically. The result - an open disregard of the Constitutional Court on the restoration and preservation duties allowance only for the import of cars and refrigerators. Thus, almost half the head of government has spent on it to block a resolution adopted on her own initiative.

Yulia Tymoshenko was able to prevail in a conflict situation: dismiss the chairman of the State Property Fund Valentina Semeniuk, Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov, Viktor Pynzenyk, Volodymyr Ogryzko. But it rarely brings it started to the end - the new leaders loyal to the relevant departments have not yet been appointed. Get the same effect as that of the elimination of the gas intermediary RosUkrEnergo or solicitation House - Prime Minister had the power exactly as much to remove a player from the market or an official from the chair, but not to reform the market and bring order to the department.

During his second coming in Tymoshenko's government has failed to privatize any strategic object, as well as create a land market, in particular, to lift the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land. The Government has not implemented a land registry has not undertaken a monetary value of land. Complete paralysis of the experts state and in the market for housing and communal services, which did not happen long-awaited deregulation and privatization ZhEKov. For two years the Cabinet of Ministers was unable to prepare a reasonable bill for a tax on property - the main resource maintenance of local budgets in the world. The latter document, which Yulia Tymoshenko has made for an urgent review of the Verkhovna Rada could not stand criticism - Bill number 2113 on Tax on immovable property (real estate), other than land does not specify a register of owners of property that in principle the idea brings to naught.

A year ago, when the International Monetary Fund turned aside activities in Ukraine, no one could assume that a loan fund will be one of the achievements of the Tymoshenko government. Indeed, without credit stand by for 16.4 billion dollars Ukraine threatened to default and the collapse of the hryvnia even more than now. Operational negotiations with the Fund and amendments to the legislation for the first tranche really should be written in the active head of government. On the other hand, if initiated by Tymoshenko to pay compensation to depositors of Sberbank of the USSR were not directed foreign exchange, foreign exchange deficit in autumn 2008 the first would be less acute.

International Monetary Fund continues to fund the Ukraine, despite the fact that the government has publicly refused to follow the agreements the two sides and to comply strictly with documented commitments to the IMF. Of all taken by Yulia Tymoshenko crisis making it able to realize only one thing - almost a year she still has launched a promised mechanism of nationalizing banks, allowing investors troubled financial establishments are slowly getting their deposits. Meanwhile, the mechanism of nationalization is an unpleasant aftertaste bankers. A deputy from the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc Konstatin Zhevago did everything to his bank, Finance and Credit was not among the nationalized, knowing that otherwise he just take away the bank without any compensation.

Practice abrupt action with a loud start and incomprehensible effects spread to other sectors of the economy. Thus, Timoshenko prohibits gambling (that from the standpoint of society - an undoubted plus), but does not ensure the operation of this market by new legislation (three months after the law on gambling and has not appeared). Premier directs its zeal to ban local authorities to raise the rent, although the level of rates, and so dropped out of the crisis. Even the introduction of external independent testing found themselves with many points of view of positive reform, has created an army of lime with disabilities and children of miners, moving the corruption of the educational institutions in the medical and insurance institutions.

Perhaps much of the managerial blunders Timoshenko and incompleteness of its good intentions attributed to lack of own team. Cabinet of the Prime Minister - a purely political, selected by quota principle of collective, recently working in the status of acting, which adversely affects the final result. And the management style at the premiere so vozhdistsky that sometimes the impression that the decisions she does not trust anyone. Even the closest companions.

Success

1. Provision IMF loan stand by (several times greater than the quota of Ukraine).

2. Starting mechanism nationalization of banks, the resumption of payments to fixed-term deposits - beginning of the restoration of confidence in the banking system.

3. Removing duplication of functions of state institutions after the adoption of the Law On the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine.

4. The introduction of a uniform wage scale and differentiation of wages of budget.

5. The elimination of exchange license VAT on imports.

6. The introduction of a centralized system of providing tax statements electronically.

7. The introduction of universal external independent testing.

8. Trading carbon dioxide emissions under the Kyoto Protocol.

9. Elimination of the Tender Chamber.

10. The prohibition of gambling.

SHOCK

1. The policy to scale up the budget deficit, leading to inflate inflation, weakness of the national currency. Harsh statements designed to undermine the market position of economic entities.

2. Conclusion disadvantageous agreements with Russia, resulting in the rapid price hike in gas prices.

3. Manual mismanagement of public procurement system and public goods interventions.

4. Capacity VAT arrears, conservation inefficient tax system.

5. Maintaining the moratorium on the sale of agricultural lands, blocking a full-fledged land market.

6. Saving conscription.

7. Introduction 13-per cent surcharge on goods imported uncritically, saving allowances for cars and refrigerators.

8. The failure of the project on estrangement system utilities.

9. The failure of the conclusion of association agreements with the EU.

10. Run redemption housing built houses instead of stimulating the construction of houses.

better to do than to do

Andrey Kozhemyakin, first deputy head of the BYuT faction:

- Government worthy survived the first and second wave of financial and economic crisis. The undisputed merit Tymoshenko - getting tranches from the IMF and the beginning of the restructuring of banks. In the arsenal of success and competent policy of agricultural development. The Government is actively working to create a regional agricultural centers, as well as wholesale agricultural markets, where farmers could earn money independently, and not through intermediaries. In June, Cabinet approved the program of development of agricultural service cooperatives and development program of wholesale markets of agricultural products. This year they will be funded through special fund budget. Implementation of these programs will reduce inflation, increase production of fruits and vegetables and to create about three thousand jobs.

Among other achievements - the elimination of the consequences of last year's floods in Western Ukraine, as well as elimination of corruption gas broker. Tymoshenko was able to negotiate with Russia challenging the leadership that Ukraine still remains with the gas, and we pumped the required amount of fuel to last us for the autumn and winter. So what, that increased the price of gas. In a permanent war with their president outcome of such arrangements look very good.

Team Tymoshenko stood in the political cataclysm - when the president intended to start a regular parliamentary elections, Tymoshenko prevent this. However, the main merit of the government despite all the accusations of populism - maintain stable social policy. Несмотря на кризис, Кабмин продолжает регулярно рассчитываться по пенсиям и зарплатам. О неудачах и промахах не мне судить, их не бывает только у тех, кто ничего не делает. А премьер-министр трудится с восьми утра до одиннадцати часов вечера, а то и до двух ночи.

Ораторские способности компенсируют провалы

Ирина Акимова, депутат от Партии регионов, министр экономики теневого правительства:

- Хотя Юлия Тимошенко не выполнила большинство договоренностей, ей удалось получить плановые транши от МВФ. Это успех. Фонд был настолько заинтересован в выдаче нам этого транша, что даже невыполнение условий не испугало его миссию. Международному фонду важно не допустить дефолта в стране с большим объемом иностранного капитала, ведь банкротство Украины обойдется дороже, нежели выдача траншей.

Достижение Тимошенко как политика - сохранение рейтинга на фоне нелепых антикризисных действий. Она очень неудачно ввела страну в кризис и так же плохо вела ее по кризису. На таком фоне рейтинг любого политика мог бы обвалиться до нуля, однако ораторские способности помогли Тимошенко избежать этого. Обычно подобный успех политического деятеля базируется исключительно на слабой информированности населения о реальном состоянии вещей. К таким достижениям, как вступление во Всемирную торговую организацию, Тимошенко не имеет никакого отношения. Членство Украины в ВТО - итог работы многих правительств. К списку успехов нельзя причислить и ликвидацию газового посредника RosUkrEnergo - это чисто политические разборки, которые не привели к удешевлению энергии для украинцев или реструктуризации НАК Нафтогаз УкраїÐ½Ð¸.

Список поражений правительства Тимошенко гораздо шире. Ее правительство не смогло поддержать ослабленный банковский сектор, допустило резкий рост государственного долга, что создаст необходимость увеличения налоговой нагрузки в будущем.

Среди неудач важно отметить и усложнение российско-украинских отношений, а также заключение невыгодных соглашений с РФ, что привело к резкому подорожанию газа. В социальной сфере тоже накапливаются проблемы, связанные в первую очередь с резким ростом дефицита Пенсионного фонда, который покрывается трансфертами из бюджета. Во второй половине года может не хватить денег на выплату пенсий. Сегодня до 90% трансфертов в Пенсионный фонд уже профинансировано, а прошло только семь бюджетных месяцев.

Светлана Крюкова

At Russia's stock market is expected predominance of negative dynamics of the basic indexes most of the day
From September 1, ALROSA resumes operation of mining and processing enterprises in full
Industrial metals at the auctions in London as of Friday grown
Forex Market 31/08/2009
Estonia against the construction of gas pipeline Nord Stream
IMF may cease cooperation with Ukraine if the authorities would loosen the country's economy
Moneychangers undermined rate

Sales NBU currency at a favorable rate on the cash market resulted in a rise in price of the dollar ...

Forex Asia
Russia's most liquid stocks traded today on average 1,5% below the close on Friday