That ended the summer ...

Russia

Russia's stock market ended last week on a positive note: the RTS index added 1.77% on Friday, the MICEX index rose by 2,9%. Most papers grew quite amicably, as the apparent cause for optimism came in a fairly large volume, forcing players to buy shares of companies of various sectors of the economy. Trading volume on the RTS stock exchange was $ 2.73 billion, of which $ 1.63 billion were in the tools of the derivatives market, the MICEX Stock Exchange Section of gain by selling at 141.77 billion, turnover in the index amounted to 49.99 billion rubles.

Europe

indices of the Old World have increased by an average of 1% on the background of neutral macroeconomic statistics and corporate optimism in the region of the registered companies. In general, the current month of August remember, contrary to expectations, the quietness and serenity against the background of high volatility and lack of new ideas.

America

indices of the New World were closed with a range from 0,05% to -0,4%, which is caused by conflicting statistics and a tendency of investors to such categories as expectation, trust, hope. The market is playing with words and ideas, but not fundamental factors, that is why the movement is, and no progress, in the sense that the volatility increases, as distinct stable dynamics is not observed. Officials from the Fed and its sister agencies around the world can be any number of players to try to calm the financial markets, but the real economy from knock-down has not yet been released, and this means that the flame extinguished without solving the problems that actually caused the fire. Moreover, there is a sincere belief that the problems became more - they were simply carried to future periods.

raw materials, currency and so on

industrial metals on the auctions in London as of Friday rose (it's when you look at the stock exchange composite index LME, individually, some metals are updated yearly highs). Gold failed to gain a foothold above $ 960. The U.S. dollar is behaving fairly stable.

remarkable index called BDI (Baltic Dry Index), which is sometimes used as a leading indicator, during the summer, fall, against the rising stock market indices. Assuming BDI indicator reflecting the economic activity through the prism of the maritime transport industry, then this very special activity is not observed. The May rise was due entirely speculative sentiment associated with the strategic procurement of raw materials by China and a temporary shortage of available tonnage. In general, I would have thought about the reality of the real sector of the economy and its prospects - moving up the essence of the merit of Ben Bernanke, who just do not scatter dollars from a helicopter (it should pay tribute to the chairman of the Fed - he keeps his word).

Oil prices, which are thrown from the frying pan into the fire, at 9-30 (Moscow time) as follows: Brent crude futures are slightly higher than $ 72.25, WTI futures traded on the mark just below the $ 72.5 .

Statistics and Reporting

Monday is expected fairly quiet in terms of an information day: firstly, in the UK today, a bank holiday to mark the end of the summer, and secondly, from the macroeconomic statistics, published only index of consumer prices in the euro area (13-00 Moscow time) and the index of activity in the U.S. (17-45 Moscow time).

Forecast

I look forward to the beginning of trading on the equity market in the last calendar day of summer with the gap down within 1-1,5%. The following look at the behavior of oil futures, which, compared with Friday while not feeling well.

MICEX Index has consistently failed to go above 1100 points, but below the plow and not in a hurry. At the time of the MICEX index pushed up their monthly moving average, which is conjugate to the same level of support from top motion is limited level of 1120 points. The chances of an attack is like a bear on the side of which are logic, common sense and the position of the real sector, as well as a bull, backed by cash flows.

Recommendations on RTS Index futures for Monday
Shares of main and distribution companies are the most undervalued from a fundamental point of view
While not expected to significantly reduce, the MICEX index and major papers continue Comma delimited
Negative flow from China adds uncertainty about the long-term trend for reviving the global economy
The worst of the market today can be shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel
In the energy sector the most important news may be a revision of investment programs for energy companies Gazprom
Significant trading ideas the market will get only in the second half of the week
On Friday, stock indexes in the United States showed a downward intraday dynamics
Britain calls on European countries to increase contributions to the IMF