Fundamental factors that prevent the growth of Russia"s stock market and global stock indices, gradually collapsing. Yesterday dropped out concerns about the imminent increase the base rate the U.S. Federal Reserve. Today, most likely, leave the re-election intrigue Ben Bernanke to head the Central Bank.
But from a technical point of view of all the positive movement, sparked by positive news on the stock and commodity markets, can be understood only as a corrective rebound, logical after a noticeable drop.
The real power over the stock markets and commodity quotes bulls will be able to regain, if only in a short time, the main indicators will return to the strategic lines.
important milestone for the main U.S. index, Dow Jones 10350/10370 points (uptrend line July 2009). Reduta "bulls" on the chart of Brent crude oil are located at 74.5 dollars per barrel. As we have repeatedly pointed to the chart of the MICEX Index - a line that separates a simple correction to the global drop in Russian quota1000tions from May to October 2008, from the emerging new independent upward movement with the purposes of paragraphs 1950 and even 2850 points, lies at the level of 1405/1410 points. Also, "bulls" would hold strong euro for the return of the downtrend line from the end of October 2009 1,435 Usd /Eur.
However, until the image on the graphs of key indicators is difficult, speculators still should not sit idle. We are doing major stake in its aggressive portfolio of securities, which are only indirectly subject to external storms.
In recent days, we are on the same wavelength with the shares of FGC UES "and believe that they have not yet found in nature together with the apparent interest of speculators in the securities of the energy sector. They must be shot in the area of 0,351 rubles, if the stand in support of their schedule 0,329 rubles.
In addition, we obviously love the action of "Transneft". And we are happy to use it. There is an indiscreet market and technical potential of growth to a level 28000/29000 rubles (rising channel resistance line from November 2009) until they are above the level 23800/23600 ruble (line of long-term uptrend from March 2009 and the line correction on the Fibonacci 23.6% the fall of quotations from October 2005 to November 2008).
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Forecasts of analysts: With the support of the external background at the opening of Russia"s market will regain the positions above 1400 points on the MICEX
Cheapened oil will slow down the movement of Russia"s market up, but this factor will come to the fore after the first wave of growth
Improved dynamics, including the world"s stock markets, had little effect on the dynamics of the course the single European currency to U.S. dollar
Talking about the end of downward movement in the stock market is still premature
If you continue to rebound can be expected to significantly increase volatility
Trades today will again be volatile, the impact on the market will makrostistiki data on the labor market from the U.S.
Speculatively minded players today can try to playd12to increase in stocks of banking sector
On the dynamics of the market today, affect the RF output statistics on its original demands of the unemployed in the U.S.
MICEX in the first minutes of trading will add about 1% and consolidates above 1390 points