Reorganization MRK entering the home stretch, and apparently, this segment of the market is waiting for another rise

Written by admin on September 23rd, 2009

After a minor correction in the early weeks of the world's major indexes continued to rise, supported by positive expectations for the upcoming meeting of G20, which, by most accounts, the heads of the leading world powers should remain in force provided by the global economy incentives in order to provide recharge for its further recovery. In addition, the market eagerly awaits the outcome of a two-day meeting of the Fed, which, as expected, the U.S. central bank once again reaffirm its commitment to ensure sustained economic growth than inflation, and risks. As a result, the market in its growth continues to build liquidity and prospects of a prolonged era of cheap money in the world economy. Against the backdrop of the prevailing optimism in the stock markets, domestic indices must resist at the level attained, although in a few days the pressure on them to grow, due to both technical correction on the prospects of major global indices, and a potential weakening of the oil quotations.

U.S. stock indexes rose on the results of yesterday's trading, drawing support for the optimistic expectations regarding the outcome of the Fed meeting, which will be announced today. The Dow rose 0.52% to 9,829.87 p., index SP - on 0,66% to 1,071.66 p.

Investors are confident that the Fed will not change its policy on interest rates, but it is not clear the Fed to inflation and its strategy to absorb excess liquidity in the market. Since the crisis, the total amount of incentives provided by the U.S. monetary authorities is $ 12 trillion, which potentially poses a threat to price stability in the economy. In this context, the market will closely monitor the inflation component in the text of Fed statement soprovoditlenogo: Many believe the Fed is not there, so at the next meeting, will form a roadmap for the removal of public funds from the economy. Another thing is that the Fed's actions will be cautious and balanced. In the current situation where the market formed a sufficient number of bubbles, while the real market value of a substantial portion of its assets in the banking system is still difficult to assess, the Fed can test the waters for a tightening of policy, but is unlikely to go to drastic measures to contraction of liquidity. Thus, in the coming months are not excluded short-term slumps in the markets, but in general, thanks to the incoming makrostatistike and positive background, which should create corporate reports for the third quarter, a growing trend in the stock markets should be preserved.

If we look at today's perspective, the U.S. indexes are likely to accept the outcome of the Fed meeting as an excuse to take profits. As a result, may strengthen the dollar, which will be enhanced by growing demand from buyers of treasuries (in the next few days will be placed 110 billion of Treasury securities). However, by the end of the week on positive expectations regarding the upcoming G20 meeting growth in global stock markets continue.

Today in Asia has played just bet on the prospects of maintaining a high level of liquidity in the global financial system. MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5%. According to the majority, the G20 meeting of world leaders to agree on the need to preserve incentives for the maintenance of perceived growth in the global economy. As a result of improved economic expectations in the market significantly increased demand for raw material assets. Better the market shares of the companies appear to oil and metallurgical industries. An additional cause for optimism was the entrance of evidence of withdrawal by the New Zealand economy from the crisis.

Domestic indices today should stand up to yesterday's highs, which will contribute to the growth of the world's leading index and the stabilization of oil quotations above the level of $ 70 per barrel. Meanwhile, after considerable growth during yesterday's trading, the market is unlikely to have enough strength for another leap up, at least, comparable in scale to the past. Apparently, the demand today will be selected. Perhaps investors will try to play in the backward-up of yesterday's auction of paper from the oil and metallurgical sectors: Rosneft, Severstal.

However, given that oil, probably will leave all the same in the range of $ 65-70 per barrel, and the dynamics of crude steel in August, there has been slippage, the demand of the commodity sector will continue to not move non-commodity assets: Bank paper (Sberbank and VTB), can be supported by raising the recommendations of investment banks and the prospects for significant improvement in profitability in the next year, when they can slow down the build up reserves. The energy sector remains undervalued: it is about the papers and the FSK IDC, who will benefit from the tariff increase in the transition to RAB; Inter RAO capitalization far, even the sum of the market value of its member companies. Finally, as before, the focus will be fixed communications sector: restructuring MRK entering the home stretch, and apparently, this segment of the market is waiting for another rise.

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Today, Russia's stock market is expected countervailing dynamics of the most liquid securities
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