review the oil market for 31.08.09
Dynamics
Quotes of the oil market on Monday, August 31 closed with a significant sharp decline in price due to global reduction of prices on stock markets and commodities markets around the world.
At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH the October futures price of U.S. crude fell by 2.78 dollar and its price, thus, amounted to 69.96 dollar per barrel. On the ICE exchange in London, Brent crude oil price fell to 69.55 dollars per barrel.
Causes
On Monday, August 31 quotes on the market of black gold have demonstrated considerable dramatic downward trend in prices due to a collapse in the Chinese stock market on expectations of an artificial limit excess production capacity and reduce the impact of incentive programs on the economy, the stability of the dollar and expectations of reducing the influence of stimulating measures on the global economy.
From news worth noting that the expected cost development of the oil sands in Alberta to begin in late 2009 or early 2010. Many businessmen are thinking about resuming production, getting clearer forecasts of oil prices, whereas in the past nine months, the inflow of capital in the sector of oil production fell by 30%. It began a slow recovery projects for the construction of enrichment and blending plants. A pause was due to falling oil prices, lack of funding, high lending rates and the inability of companies to raise capital. Companies are also waiting to see the establishment of additional price on carbon emissions. Now seems to be approved surcharge of 25-30 cents per barrel, but the businessmen are worried that it may rise to 2-3 dollars /barrel. It is expected that work on renewable projects will bring 25-28 thousand jobs.
What to expect?
Today, the main event of the trading session is the beginning of the regular data on stocks of petroleum products from the Institute of Petroleum in the United States. Last week, the American Petroleum Institute reported a serious increase in stocks of black gold at 4.35 million barrels. If the present data show reduction in stocks, then we will see upward trends on the oil market.
Why worry?
Commission Commodity Futures Trading U.S. (CFTC) at the recent hearings seriously considered the possibility of stricter regulation of the oil market to prevent price manipulation. In this regard, many experts have already lowered forecasts for prices of black gold. In the case of restrictions on trade in commodity markets further dynamics of the oil market is quite clear - the price of black gold will begin to decline.
Overview of precious metals market for 31.08.09
Dynamics
On Monday, August 31 at the tender quotes for gold and silver fell markedly in price. Range trading in precious metals continues. The global price declines in the stock markets and commodity markets around the world threw quotes from the top border. As a result of trading on the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), quotes on gold decreased by 5.30 to 953.50 dollar an ounce, the price of silver fell 6 cents to 14.75 dollars per ounce.
Causes
On Monday, August 31 quotes for precious metals market showed a significant sharp downward trend in price. The cost of the December gold futures on the basis of trades in August fell by 0.2%. The global price declines in the stock markets and commodity markets around the world are not allowed to penetrate the upper limit of the quotations trading range of precious metals. Trading volume at the end of the summer vacation season is still low, and some transactions may have an exaggerated effect in these rugged and low-level trades.
From news can note that, Barrick Gold Corp. enters into operation in the next four years, four new projects with a low cost gold production, thereby enhancing its position as the world leader of gold. Thus, the mine Buzvagi in Tanzania in early May received first gold.
Capital costs for the construction of the mine amounted to $ 400 million, the mine was the sixth, commissioned by the company for the past six years. According to forecasts, production in 2009 should amount to about 6.2 tons of gold, at a cost of production of about 335 dollars per ounce. The company also spent 550 million dollars to develop its Cortez Hills project in Nevada. The preparatory work carried out at 60%, and it is expected that the first gold medal here will be received in March 2010 is projected that production of gold should be around 31 tons (1 million ounces) of gold per year at a cost of production of 350-400 dollars per ounce . Company also owns 60% of the Pueblo Viejo project in the Dominican Republic. Expected project start is scheduled for December 2011 The annual production of gold should be approximately 31.1 tons (1 million ounces) with production costs 275-300 dollars per ounce. Perhaps the most interesting project for us is the Pascua-Lama project on the border of Chile and Argentina.
positive decision on the project was taken in May, and now he is at an intermediate stage in the decision of the border issues. The project cost is estimated at 3 billion dollars, resources and reserves of the project is around 715 tons (23 million ounces) of gold and 22,332 tonnes (718 million ounces) of silver. It is expected that annual production will be here 23-25 tons (750-800 thousand ounces) of gold and 1,089 tons (35 million ounces) of silver. The most interesting aspect of this project is very low cost of production (20-50 dollars per ounce), one of the lowest in the world.
Expected commissioning is scheduled for the end of 2012
What to expect?
positive factor for the precious metals market is the possibility of weakening the U.S. dollar in the FOREX market due to release a large party of economic makrostatistiki this week, as well as the technical picture, namely the unswerving support levels.
Why worry?
One of the major factors of concern for the gold market are forecast imports of the metal in India. In August last year the country imported about 98 tons of gold, but this August, perhaps, import will not exceed 10 tons. Last year, the gold price fell in August to $ 700 per troy ounce, while the U.S. dollar was relatively weak compared with rupiey. Now the currency exchanged roles, and the price of gold rose sharply. It is expected that during the season of festivals and weddings in India's imports will be significantly below last year's levels, when the period from September to December it was 146 tons.
non-ferrous metals market review for 31.08.09
Dynamics
On Monday, August 31 quotes for non-ferrous metals showed opposite tendencies due to the fall of shares on stock markets and lower quotations on adjacent markets, as well as against decay speculative activity in China.
At the London Metal Exchange LME aluminum price closed at 1,900 dollars per tonne.
Copper at the close of the exchange was worth 6510 dollars per ton.
Nickel bidding up the price of 19140 dollars per tonne.
Causes
On Monday 31 August the price of nonferrous metals mostly declining. Negative market metals came from the stock sites, where there was a drop in prices of stock prices. Downward trends of the oil sector is also adversely affected the market of non-ferrous metals.
From the news it is worth noting that the excess capacity in the global steel industry account for 600 million tons per year. In particular, in Latin America, a surplus of capacity is 28 million tons.
Earlier this week, became head of the Institute of Brazil (IBS) announced that the world staleproizvoditeli have excess capacity of around 500 million tonnes, representing about a third of the total steel output. In Brazil, the capacities for production of steel to the end of 2010 reached 48 million tons per year, twice the current demand. This year, the production of steel in the country declined by 19% to 27,3 million tons. Production of steel in the world in 2009 could fall by 20% to 1,1 billion tons. According to the WSA, the world steel production (accounts for these 66 countries) in July dropped by 11.1% compared to the same month last year, to 103.9 million tons.
What to expect?
The situation in the market of non-ferrous metals in July and August was more than favorable. Exchange price of aluminum, copper, nickel reached 8-9-month highs. Trading volume on the LME demonstrate high rates. Good market conditions, experts predict, and in the fall.
It is expected that in 2009 and next in 2010 trading volume increased by 2%. Growth will be provided with the volatility of prices, high demand from Chinese consumers and the growing attractiveness of the exchange to investors.
Why worry?
According to some analysts, the return on the market a significant number of market participants in September may limit the rise in prices for nonferrous metals, which still reflects the increasing activity of investment funds.
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