Barack Obama"s proposal to impose restrictions on the investment operations of major banks collapsed share prices on the world stock markets. Investors are already frightened by the prospect of monetary policy tightening by the authorities of the leading countries of the world, threatening to undermine the process of reviving the global economy. Initiative of the American President have left them no choice but to escape into quality. However, Obama"s message is deprived of details, so perhaps the market reaction was excessive. Next week will be a meeting at which the Fed will have to shed light on the prospects for monetary policy of the American authorities, and possibly relieve tension in financial markets. Nevertheless, today against the backdrop of the collapse of 2% of U.S. and Asian indices, the domestic market can be dropped to a minimum this year (1420 subsection on MICEX), but in the future, we believe that Russia"s indexes can compensate for the loss, finding support in the technical restoring indexes abroad.
Trades in the United States ended in the collapse of the leading index, which mainly was triggered by the proposals of President Barack Obama to restrict the investment operations of large banks. The Dow fell 2.01% to 10,389.88 on, index SP - on 1,89%.
Initiative, Barack Obama was the need to reduce the risks assumed by banks - including through restrictions and prohibitions on transactions with risky assets, hedge fund and private equity. Last week, the White House has already announced intentions to introduce a surcharge on profits of large banks benefiting from state aid. It is possible that Obama could increase the tax on profits from risky operations of banks, thereby discouraging the activity of banks in this market segment.
statistics on the labor market, despite the fact that its influence on the market was minimal, was worse than the predictions: the number of initial applications for unemployment insurance jumped unexpectedly by 36 thousand, in spite of experts" forecasts, waited declining. The index of business activityFRB of Philadelphia, was also worse than forecasts - it fell to 15.2 in December forth. Leading Indicators from the Conference board nevertheless been better.
The main outsiders in the course of trading in the U.S. steel cans, in particular, with a high proportion of the investment business. Even strong statements Goldman Sachs, earned in the 4th quarter of 8.2 cents per share on $ 4.97 loss per share a year earlier, did not protect him from losses (-4.12%).
MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.7% today, while also falling, and quotes of raw materials - oil holding near $ 76 a barrel, precious metals fall against the dollar strengthening, due to the influx of capital to safeguard assets.
In the last days of the restoration of sites in Asia prevented the discussion of measures taken by the Chinese government to cool the country"s credit market. In particular, it implies restrictions on the amount of liquidity and lending operations, as well as raising rates. Investors believed that such a tightening of monetary policy can reduce the investment activity and lead to a cooling economy, "Celestial". As a consequence, in recent days has fallen markedly speculative demand for raw materials.
Initiative Obama, threatening to undermine economic growth in the U.S., increased negative expectations about the prospects for reviving the global economy, becoming a trigger for increasing sales in Asia.
Russia market against the backdrop of a wave sweeping the world of sales today, might fall back to 1420 Section MICEX index. Later on the expected technical recovery in external markets, he can go in plus ".
We believe that mainly under attack today will banks (following the dynamics of the sector to foreign markets). In addition, treatment of risk and may affect the blue chips, which are to yesterday"s losses in 1,5-2% may add another 2-3%.
However, it is the buckling of paper domestic commodity giants can become leaders in the growth of the market rebound to the top: Gazprom almost came to a minimum since the beginning of the year, Rosneft and Lukoil has already passed them. Influx of funds in the petroleum sector, should reduce the activity of investors in the resource-based assets, which nevertheless leaves them very attractive - in particular it comes to electricity, telecoms.
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Review of the FOREX market for 21.01.10
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The negative dynamics of Russian quotes today will continue throughout the session