Festive price hike of fuel and lubricants, and continued after the Christmas holidays. At this time the main reason was the weather. The market is becoming less predictable and less dependent on objective factors.

Last month liter of the popular high-octane gasoline increased by almost hryvnia. Back in mid-December, according to consulting group "A-95", it was priced at 6.95 hryvnia per liter, and the Catholic Christmas overcame mark seven hryvnia. Then there were three sharp jump, and a liter of fuel is costing motorists almost eight hryvnia.

Roughly the same happened with diesel fuel. If at the end of last year it was possible to buy an average of 6.38 hryvnia per liter, then the first week of January - is already at 6.47. The surge occurred on 21 January, when the cost of diesel rose immediately to 40 cents. Now the national average price of diesel is 6,85-7 hryvnia per liter.

market participants, as usual, nod to world trends and exchange rate fluctuations. "Our price is determined by the market. This is the most complete answer I can give," - said Valery Ryasik, a spokesman for the company "Lukoil-Ukraine", which is Jan. 26 to hike prices of its gas stations. However, according to1000the group "A-95", the cost of oil and petroleum products in the world reached a peak 7-11 January and has now been returned to the level of the end of December. Following this logic, we can expect cheaper fuel in the Ukrainian retail market. Nevertheless, it continues to go up.

Regarding the hryvnia exchange rate, it changed not so much to influence the price of petroleum products. In late December, the dollar was worth about 7.95 hryvnia, to January 20 rose to 8.12 hryvnia on the interbank market. However, after this rate decreased to 8,06-8,07 UAH to the dollar, which corresponds to the end of November.

"I do not think talking about the price hikes of fuel. Rather, a return to the level of October and November after the December sagging prices followed the same behavior of the dollar and oil prices" - the press-secretary of the group Galnaftogaz (a network of filling stations "OKKO) Oles Edge.

However, there are other reasons for price rise, in particular, the weather. Unusual for Ukraine frosts hit on diesel fuel: even his version of the winter in many cases has proven unable to withstand temperatures below minus 20 º. "Some traders stocked up years of diesel fuel in the hope of a warm winter. Consumers were forced to flee from them to other filling, creating a buzz", - says Director of Consulting Group "A-95 Sergei Kuiun, specifying that this explains the price hike of diesel, but not gasoline . According to Deputy Director of the consulting company SEC "Psyche" Gennady Ryabtseva, due to frost and snow drifts increased fuel consumption in urban areas due to congestion and the use of emergency vehicles. However, Frontier argues that the network OKKO only now feeling the increasing demand after the holidays. A LUKoil do not feel any shocks.

Ryabcev points and the fact that the same weather problems were experienced by our western neighbors. "As a result, import volumes fell, and its price rose. In addition, Belarus has practically ceased to contract oil, due to difficulties with the transit of oil from Russia. After the holidays, when no one is selling, traders began to dry up supplies, and they appealed to our processors . And they raised the price of your product ", - said deputy director of the SEC" Psyche ".

In his view, played a significant role and the weakening of the dumping of pressure from the group "Privat" after the abolition of technical conditions on the components of gasoline CB-92 and CB-95, which are sold under the guise of regular gasoline.

By mid-February, according to forecasts consulting companies, the price should be reduced - particularly if warmer, but hryvnia remain fairly stable. Previously, it was possible to observe the settling of prices in February and March and then their growth with the start of planting season. However, in the past few years, the trend being blurred. "

Analysts agree that the situation is difficult to predict. The dynamics of demand in recent years, very little effect on the price dynamics. Factors that are commonly referred to as the key - the world price and exchange rate fluctuations - rather formal cover. Fuel costs are virtually independent of its quality. A normal competition in our market there. In these circumstances, becomes too high influence of psychological factors on the market.

"We are seeing inadequate painful reaction of traders to press reports, a large Internet and media-dependent, - says Ryabtsev. - First, there are publications that the fuel price by 45 cents, and then it rises in price by 45 cents. Not very hryvnia fall affects the cost of petroleum products, and reports of its fall.

According to him, in a crisis, many traders,becespecially in regions of reduced analytical services and the dedication to public information. Unprofessional traders influences fluctuations in prices not less than objective factors, considers Ryabtsev.

Maria Pomazan

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