The times when the stock market was in oversold extreme point, long gone

Written by admin on February 24th, 2010

We expected that the day will win back market is relatively easy to fall in the morning and continued to the lateral dynamics. Harping on the fall, unfortunately, a bit delayed, but now everything has come back to normal: to 16.00 MICEX index gained weight 1,1%.

In the morning we gave comments on the recommendation of the purchase of shares of Severstal because of the proximity zone support 320 - 324, but our reluctance to invest in stocks remains (the telecommunications sector -1000an exception). The only reliable guide for investors will be how quickly will rise from the ruins of the real economy - a time when the stock market was at an extreme point oversold long gone. Positive outlook for economic growth for 2010 is, and they are constantly increasing (now Germany), but the growth can be considered only under the microscope ... in good weather. For example, in UK GDP growth in the 4 th quarter of last year amounted to 0,1%.

Because of the stagnation of business because of the introduction of social security tax, and because of the fact that the state is not enough to clearly delineate the horizons of economic policy makes no sense for entrepreneurs to invest in expanding production. History of a possible reduction of export duty from oilfields in Eastern Siberia in this series ... Now they say that it was the wrong customs clearance, but such talk is not serious - for companies rules of the game are constantly changing. Rosneft last week, slipped down from the medium-term uptrend, which was formed in July last year. Possible target of reducing these shares - an area long-term passage (November 2008) uptrend 220 rubles. There is technical support at 230 rubles. The closest level of correction (FIBO) to the last wave of growth is at 227 rubles. In the range 220 - 230 we can fully expect to halt the fall.

At the forum in Davos, the biggest bankers criticized the U.S. president"s economic policies, in particular reducing the size of large U.S. banks. These statements are widely replicated media, and suffers information background. I"m not surprised - Western banks and Western media always walk arm in arm, so the bankers it is better not to quarrel. Remember the Watergate scandal, the resignation of President Nixon and the role of newspapers in the Washington Post, great-owned by Warren Buffett.

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