Index MMVB10. Volatility decreases

After the largest drop observed after the 1998 crisis, the Russian market for several months, showing a more or less steady growth. Using as a springboard, round of 1000 index MMVB10 rose nearly 2500 points.

Despite the fact that recovery takes place within the time frame is much shorter than some analysts predicted, giving the restoration of the market almost a decade, the market is still far from what we saw before the start of the fall.

For example, the analysis of the volatility of the index MMVB10 conducted using indicator ATR. The graph show that the volatility, and hence the anxiety of participants began to rise at the beginning of the summer 2008 decline. Then it just grew as the downward trend.

Multiple stop bidding and great morning gepy not added confidence in the future (from the word day and not from the word bottom, although there was appropriate and that and another meaning of the word) or long-term investors or short-term speculators . As a consequence, the lack of understanding among most players, what is happening in the market and when it is completed, the volatility has increased and reached its peak in October last year. That is when the market bubble, like milkshakes, which are confusing in the mixer, and then played the whole state and make for a few hours.

Later, at the beginning of this year's passion began to subside, volatility went down slowly.

Throughout the growth that we see from the end of February, the index volatility remains at a constant level. At the same time, their pre-crisis value, it exceeds almost two times (blue horizontal line in the top histogram). This once again suggests that emotion is not fully subsided, and the market continues to fever. A similar picture is observed in the Dow Jones and other foreign sites.

However, the mere fact of reducing the volatility, said that during the market life back on track. What fears and anxieties are gradually to be in the past. What will be quite a few years on the market standard, and the fall of 2008 will resemble a nod to the charts of indexes down, but memories of old: But I remember, when in two thousand eight ....

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