Ukraine officially starts process of recapitalization of domestic banks. The state has overpaid for the control of the UGB, Rodovid the Bank and the Bank, Kiev, but is there any chance to return the money?

done. Last week the government finally decided to allocate 9.47 billion UAH. to replenish the capital of three banks. Among the lucky members of the first three groups of banking institutions in the classification of the NBU: the largest of the group - Ukrgasbank, 81.58% of which will belong to the state in exchange for 3.1 bln., A group of major banks represents Rodovid Bank, which received 2 , 81 bln. in exchange for 99.97%. The third representative from the category of medium-sized banks - Kiev - will receive assistance in the amount of 3,56 bln. for 99.93%.

According to a State participation in the capitalization of banks, capital finuchrezhdeny Cabinet plans to make the internal state loan bonds due in 2017-2019 years and the yield 9.5% per annum. It is still not determined the mechanism recapitalization to the end. It is anticipated that these lead banks appoint new managers.

According to some reports, they can become successful in the past but jobless now ex-chairman of the banking institutions. Remains unclear and the question when the banks will be able to get real money. According to Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko - as soon as their performance will be restored and they will be able to fulfill their obligations to clients. However, experts doubt that this could happen in the next six months.

 

Dear

purchase

acquired in the share of cost the state banks are not so cheap. And while analysts are hesitant to assess today finuchrezhdeniya based on the size of their capital on the first of April this year, the state acquired Ukrgasbank Rodovid and Bank of multipliers 2.5 and 2.3, respectively. The situation with the bank Kiev complex. According to the results of the first quarter of the bank's assets fell below its liabilities. For comparison: at the time the Russian VTB Bank bought the Mriya by a factor 1.6, and the Austrian Erste Groop acquired Ukrainian Prestige with multiplier 1.75.

Market participants do not currently recommend the use of the ratio of funds from the capital finuchrezhdeny. Indeed, over the past three years, the Ukrainian banks of the highest multipliers sales rolled up to the price at a discount. According to the Director of Analytical Department, Foyil Securities Agshin Mirzazade, today the question of revaluation or underestimating the banks do not. This is only the salvation of these three banks to enable them to survive the crisis and meet the demands of depositors.

Accordingly, the amount was calculated based on the needs of banks, rather than their market value. The current quotes on stocks and delivery Ukrgasbank Bank simply symbolic. A value in the current environment can be calculated, starting from the capital of the bank, less the expected losses and write-offs -- Notes Mirzazade. Apparently, the amount of losses and write-offs could reach 30%. And if the bank Kiev even with this pessimistic forecast is made of the funds will be sufficient, the Bank and UGB Rodovid may need to seek help again.

Thus, the total liabilities of bank Kiev to the legal and physical persons is 3,6 billion UAH. that can actually be blocked from the money. In Ukrgasbank Bank and Rodovid situation more complicated. Of the total commitments UkrGasBank clients received assistance of only 43%, Rodovid us the picture is not much better - state funds cover only half. In fact, it turns out that if even overpaid rekapitaliziruemye banks, public funds may be scarce, not to mention the effectiveness of their use. In fact, most of all, these funds would go to repay debt owed to clients. On the other hand, it is believed that the money should be a liquidity cushion in case the need to write-off bad loans. It is the second factor will be able to restore normal operation rekapitaliziruemyh finuchrezhdeny. However, judging by the statements of politicians, the probability of the use of funds for repayment of the deposits is still higher. Thus, the government infusion may be ineffective.

Meanwhile, the analyst company Renaissance Capital Anastasiya Golovach believes that in this case, consider the recapitalization of banks by the State as a public investment that should pay off in the future, incorrectly. The state of necessity resorted to this measure to avoid the bankruptcy of banks, which have a large share of deposits. And the amount of funds which have been increased their capital, based not on the fair value of assets (which in these circumstances, it is difficult to determine), but on the basis of needs of the bank. In this case, the main objective was the return of public confidence in the banking system , - assures Golovach.

In her opinion, it is possible to discuss how these measures can be effective for the economy as a whole. Because even if the situation in the nationalized banks will stabilize and they can pay their depositors, in order to be able to restore lending to the economy, yet it is necessary to ensure the inflow of new deposits in these finuchrezhdeniya. And this is the case with the individual banks can be rather difficult task because of the reputational loss.

Therefore, from the standpoint of efficiency of public investment, rightly in our view, raise a question about the cost of alternative measures. such as the bankruptcy of problem banks under the simplified procedure, where public resources are directed to the fund to guarantee deposits in order to ensure quick reimbursement to depositors .

However, this option could prove more costly for the state, because only the total amount of deposits of the three nationalized banks exceeds 15 billion UAH., while their total recapitalization was 9,5 billion UAH. On the other hand, government support viable banks would be more effective tool to support the economy as a whole , - concludes Anastasiya Golovach.

As for the return of state investment funds, according to Head of Financial Markets ING Bank Ukraine Andrey Potapov, there are many if. If the banks will be able to return to normal operating activities, if the stock market will revert to the pre-crisis levels, etc. This will happen no earlier than when the economies of the developed markets will be of a recession and the interests of Western investors turn to the Ukraine again, - sure Potapov.

According to the Government, after the financial recovery rekapitaliziruemye banks will be exhibited at an open auction privatization. In the auction will be able to participate and the ex-owners of banks. Most likely, the current owners of the banks will have certain preferences in the sale of their shares in the future. How much does it cost for banks, will depend on the situation in the market, as the Ukrainian and global, and whether a State would be able to return these banks on the previous positions - sure Mirzazade. If the banks will be losses, which eat portion of invested capital, and market ratios (P /Book, P /E) will remain atthe same low levels as it is now, discourage investment can not be. However, if the auction is held in the stabilization of the situation - not only in Ukraine but throughout the world - the circle of potential investors can significantly enhance the current investment can be more than paid for itself.

 

To be continued

According to senior analyst IC Troika Dialog Ukraine Evgenia Grebenyuk, more interesting may be the fate of two other banks (Nadra Bank and Ukrprombank), the possibility of recapitalization which has already been seen for several months. The main problem is that data finuchrezhdeniya longer burdened with debt, rather than the trinity of obtaining funds. Thus, the total external debt of Nadra Bank and Ukrprombank is about $ 1.4 billion long as foreign lenders are unwilling to make concessions to Ukrainian finuchrezhdeniyam in restructuring their debts. However, this is a mandatory condition for receiving assistance from the state banks. According to the deputy chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Anatoly Shapovalov, the amount of funds needed to recapitalize the two banks is around 14 billion UAH. ($ 1.8 billion).

Elena Moshenets

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