On Friday at the U.S. stock market once again dominated by pessimistic sentiment among market participants.

For example, on Friday published the prices of imports, which in June rose by 3.2% compared to May, which is the most significant growth since September 1990. At the same time the trade surplus in May totaled - $ 26.0 billion against the forecast of - $ 30.0 billion, while the index of consumer confidence in the United States fell to 64.6 points against the prediction of 70 points.

remind that this week begins the publication of key financial results of American companies. At the end of trading session, U.S. stock indices closed raznonapravleno - Dow Jones 0.44%, S P500 0.4%, NASDAQ 0.19%.

From a technical standpoint, the Dow Jones index Friday protorgovyval side corridor 8090-8220 points, and the bulls keep time fractal for sale at around 8087.42 points, which, coupled with the bull divergence on MACD indicator can talk about local bottom.

At the same time last week, Bears broke the neck line of formation of head and shoulders, after which bulls twice did retest the line from the bottom up, which bears were able to hold, which increases his chances of resumption of decline and the realization of the height of the figure with the potential of 400-450 points.

At the same time on the time schedule for the indicator MACD Bull divergence. Indicator Stochastic's are in the market place. Also worth noting that in the afternoon schedule until a figure of flag with the lower boundary in the vicinity of 8050 points and the top 8400 points.

From the short-wave point of view of index Dow Jones correctional wave shapes with. If the correction will be developed in view of the flag, it will podskok to 8400 points, and then one more run down.

C global wave point of view, we believe that the Dow Jones index is still at a formative stage in the global wave, which will edit all fall to 23.6% -38.2% -50% of Fibonacci to 9450-10400 counts.

For temporary factors rebound U.S. indices should be about 6-7 months after the 1.5-year decline. So, at best, index Dow Jones has formed the first stage rebound within a subvolny.

Now we see the correction of growth from March 6 to 8200-7995-7770-7400 points, representing 23.6% -38.2% -61.8% -50% of Fibonacci in the wave b. Once complete the current downward motion, then another run up to 9400-9500 points in the wave with a large wave B.

Once complete the formation of a global wave, it will begin building a global wave C up to 2012 with the aim of 2550-3500 points.

From the technical point of view, on Friday the MICEX index opened around previous closing levels, after which the bears intercepted the initiative and dragged the index to the new local minima. In the second half of trading session, the situation on the Russian stock market has not changed dramatically, and the MICEX index closed at minimum values. The volume of trading session amounted to about 43 billion rubles.

On Friday, as we had anticipated, the MICEX index, slave bears headed to the main bychemu 'defensive redoubt view point of paragraph 882, which was the minimum mark for the 4th subvolny and thus the medium of growing traffic. As a result, bulls have not been able to keep him, after which the MICEX index went to the nearest clearing objective in the region of 870 points, some of which shut down the index.

So, at this time the MICEX index continues to be traded in the local outgoing channel with the lower boundary in the area of 860 points and the top 895 in the vicinity of settlements. In addition, the MACD indicator at the time the schedule is saved Bull divergence, in the afternoon schedule it broken. Indicators Stochastic's located in the zone pereprodannosti, but in June 2008 we have been successful at such indicators fell indicators.

today to compare the situation with the weekly schedule continues in June 2008 to the current situation, where the correction developed by Related scenario. Remember that earlier we saw the testing of 50% of the Fibonacci length of the 3rd subvolny similar to the current 882 points, then 2-week rebound, which was the bull trap. Last week ended the decline, after a similar 2-week rebound in June 2008, during which was broken line, the same 882 items that had been implemented bears. This week for the pessimists to be shut down another decline.

From the short-wave point won the pessimists, who now see the formation of the 5th wave in the first phase of the downward movement of 870-844-802 items, representing 50% -61.8% of the Fibonacci of wavelengths 1-3.

This 5 volnovka can be as subvolnoy a first down, and the usual 1st wave reduction in the global wave C. As soon as the current phase of lowering completed, we will see a big correction on the rebound 20% -40% from falling.

Regarding the optimists, they can still count on the 4th subvolnu and further formation of the 5th subvolny, but their chances ghost.

closest daily fractal for sale is located at around 881.95 points, a full-time fractal for purchase is located at around 1226.61 points. Time is fractal for purchase at around 1014.59 and 955.32 points, but on sale at around 865.13 points.

With the long-wave point of view, the scenario kuklovodskom June 2, the MICEX index has completed the formation of a global wave of B, where the rebound was comfortable range of items 1055-1230, representing 38.2% -50% of all Fibonacci from falling.

In this case, the MICEX index formed a double zigzag WXY under large waves in that use our favorite puppeteers. Do not be ruled out that the zigzag is transformed into a triple, but still too early to talk about it.

So, June 2, completing the formation of waves with the objectives of Y 1050-1070-1110 items, and even the 1230-1250 settlements, where 4 of the 5 goals were achieved. Now we begin a new phase in the fall of the global wave 50-150-250 C of the items in the light of panic, and the levels can be achieved by the end of the year - mid-2010, which will be accompanied by a devaluation of the ruble to 40-60 rubles for 1 dollar fall in oil to 15-20 dollars, Dow Jones index to items 2500-3500, after which will be stagnant until 2012, and we adhere to the realization of this scenario. At best, we see a global double bottom in the region of 493-500 points. We are on the side of the realization of this scenario, the detailed layout is described just above.

Regarding the optimists, they believe that there still is the formation of waves with a large wave in the framework of a simple zigzag abc. In the wake of bulls have formed a wedge because the 1st subvolny in correctional wave, then the 2nd subvolnu, reaching 545 points, representing 76.4% of the Fibonacci length of the 1st subvolny. June 2, the MICEX index set a new maximum, and completed the formation of the 3rd subvolny. Now comes the formation of the 4th subvolnu that reached 1070-963-882 points, representing 23.6% -38.2% -50% of the Fibonacci length of the 3rd subvolny, but the chances of the bulls will be minimal, if the index entrenched below 882 points.

On Friday we are advised to open a speculative shorts, as if overcome daily fractal on sale for the purpose of 870 points. Today, we advise to watch the market on the side with a stand if the lower limit of the trend in testing, you can open a speculative long.

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