Further sales could lead to a breakdown of the rising trend of July
After two knockdowns (Wednesday /Thursday), the MICEX index was unable to overcome during Friday's rebound zone n. 1190/1195, which came together moving MA11 (1192), MA5 (1187) and the weekly book price (IAD-5 = 1187). Cheap oil and the weak macroeconomic statistics in the U.S. scared away at the end of the week not only investors but speculators.
The situation on the external debt market also deteriorated. Sovereign spread over the weekend rose and returned to the level of 10-day statute of limitations (p. 296). At this level (15 September) increased yield of Russia-30 (6,28%).
decisive word is now for the U.S. market share, especially since the SP500 index on the basis of last week was a fundamental choice. Volatility index (VIX) increases over the past three sessions. Model volume weekly trading positions (OBV-5) at present is practically at zero (Fig. 1). Further sales could lead to a breakdown of the July upward trend. Accordingly, the indicator for this will go to negative values, which would mean an active speculation in sales. Eventually SP500 index may lose at least another 4-5%. Such developments may have a negative impact on investors and the rest of the world markets.
Asian indices traded in the morning in negative zone. Oil still relatively stable, but prices are on the 2-nom monthly minimum. Besides weakening the European currency is a potential threat to further reduce oil prices.
In technical terms, the situation is also exacerbated by the bulls dangerous proximity of the MICEX Index to the lower boundary of the rising channel (~ 1170). Break of this level can give additional impetus for the game from sale.
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