June 2 at the official website of the International Monetary Fund has updated the text of the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policy of Ukraine in connection with the receipt of the next tranche of credit stand-bye.

Given the fact that in two weeks in Ukraine, with the inspection again, perhaps IMF mission, the publication of the bilateral agreements should be viewed as a direct reminder to Ukrainian politicians about the issues that need to be solved for a new tranche. One of the most fundamental points of agreement is the preservation of the state budget deficit of not more than 4% of GDP (excluding funds for the recapitalization of banks).

In order not to go beyond the agreed deficit, the government pledged to reduce the list of exclusions from the VAT, eliminating privileged pensions, to revise the retirement age, a quarterly increase natural gas prices and refuse to grant to pay for utility services, to limit the types of entrepreneurial activity simplified system of taxation.

All of this difficult, often painful and unpopular steps. But without them, are unlikely to drop ballast populist, which prevents the power to deal with the crisis. On the other hand, the Ukrainian government may consider the same steps only as a way to get the next tranche. And he is not the most pleasant, if we take into account the impending presidential election. In this case, instead of quick and clear decisions are taken either to nothing and no binding decisions and laws that formally meet the requirements of the IMF or the proposed solutions in search of exotic soft money.

This is the so-called anti-crisis laws, which in recent sins, and the coalition and the opposition. While the leaders have agreed that, the quarrel, some MPs to vigorously push its crisis initiatives. The main key to success of such bills in the sessional hall: the appearance of simplicity, the proposed solution, taking into account the material interests of the major factions and bind to the requirements of the IMF.

Thus, for example, a law was passed (admittedly, time vetirovanny president) on the complete prohibition of gambling in the country - by a faction BYUT. And the electorate pleasure, and earn a possible presidential campaign by allowing the right companies to engage in this business.

In another case, suggesting the MPs to choose between culture and health and beer and wine , the Vice President of Tomenko protolknul raising excise taxes on beer as a way to find money to cover the deficit of health. The same reference was made in April, when the rise in excise tax on tobacco to cover the healthcare of young people and the requirement of the IMF.

But first, the Foundation has never called for increasing the excise and other taxes, but only insisted on a better administration of taxes, especially VAT. Moreover, the sharp increase any taxes, including excise taxes, contrary to the Washington consensus - the list of basic recommendations of the IMF, made back in 1989, in particular, on improving tax discipline and increase the tax base at a moderate and stable tax rates.

Secondly, experienced MPs warned that such initiatives can only have the opposite effect. For example, remembers the head of VR Committee for Regional Policy, the Regions Party faction member Volodymyr Rybak, when discussing a bill on tobacco Excise, before it took, it was suggested that this may lead to increased smuggling to Ukraine.

Such actions are always provoke smuggling and illegal production. This can be compared to gambling, which was recently banned. So it will continue to flourish, only illegally, and the state it would not have the money - like hothead MP . Indeed, because of the negative economic consequences of hasty legislation legal industry will go into the shadows. This trend has already started on the cigarette market, where only in May, were seized up to half of illegal packs of cigarettes - a record for this decade.

It is obvious that such measures will not help restore the financial system, increase domestic demand and increase public confidence in the authorities and financial institutions, although these objectives and the IMF declared when Ukraine stabilization loan. So, ill-considered, half fiscal policy is needed solely to cover the interests of pressure groups in government, the National Bank and Secretariat of the President under the next tranche of loan.

However, these groups and the time has come to understand that a few months, this crisis and, indeed, antirynochnoy work, and the legitimate economy simply cease to exist, and with it, and sources for kickbacks and sponsorship . It is hoped that the instinct of self-will force the elite to abandon fiscal experiments with raising taxes and excise taxes, and really engage the necessary reforms.

Andrei Ivanov

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