Ringing the letter - envelopes with the keys of the cars and apartments - can once again become a reality for banks. The share of problem loans increased, primarily natural persons, who in the past three years, borrowed for the purchase of housing and automobiles. Months to the vagaries of the currency market questioned their ability to pay.

devaluation of credit history

90% of mortgage holders - are the citizens who have taken foreign currency loans, with revenues hryvnia. August for this group of borrowers has become, if not black, then certainly a gray month. Another devaluation survive without a loss, not all of them, experts forecast.

In August, at certain periods, the dollar rose more than 10%. Load on maintenance loans grew, although not as strongly as at the beginning of the year, - explained the situation CFO Prostobank Consulting Alexander Sedykh.

According to the NBU, the proportion of problem loans in the portfolios of Ukrainian banks is 6.8%. But in reality, this number may be higher. Because banks often underestimate the amount of bad loans - because they need to create a reserve, but not everyone has the opportunity to reserve in the amount of potential defaults. Analyst at the International Center for Advanced Studies Alexander Zholud predicts that the average number of bad loans before the end of 2009 will increase to 10%. But the average debt for banks - is still that the average temperature in the hospital, - said the expert. According to him, today there are banks, where the credit on the brink of no return is 30-50%.

According to research

Prostobank Consulting, more complex loans are banks with domestic capital. It is they who in 2006-2008 fought a reckless credit policies. While banks with foreign capital has always behaved in a more restrained and conservative.

Ours relend

Most financiers and experts agree that the growth rate of problem loans this fall will be much lower than in early 2009. Forecasts of a possible devaluation of the hryvnia appeared in late spring, and financial institutions managed to somehow protect themselves from the shock, such as that which they experienced a year nazad.Menshe all problems will be with debtors - legal entities. Such is the national peculiarities of Ukrainian credit.

Many banks have issued loans to people who are connected with the management of the bank. Now they perekreditovyvayut these debtors, and it turns out that their loans are not included in the number of problem, - explained the scheme Zholud.According to the analyst, this is indicated by the fact that among loans issued this year, far more loans to legal entities. Most of them - is the old loans with new, scaled-down, interest. But the greater availability of credit can not count. Interest rates on loans remained relatively high, as banks have had the opportunity to raise funds from citizens and legal entities, it is rather expensive source of resources. Rates in UAH will also depend on the NBU's policy, loans in foreign currency for the majority of borrowers will be unavailable, - considers Director of Corporate Banking Department JSC Brokbusinessbank Alexander Berkun.

problem borrowers greater among individuals, but even they should not lose heart. Banks are now much more interested in albeit slowly, but the return of credit than a sale of real estate, demand is very low. Therefore, financial institutions are going even lower rates on loans.

bad loans will continue to grow

forecasts of experts about the state of problem loans in the portfolios of banks are disappointing: they will grow. Zholud said that it is inevitable not only to the end of this year, but in a more prosperous 2010. And in the category of problems will pass the loans that are issued from 2006 to 2008-th. From the new defaults NBU is going to somehow protect the banks, prohibiting foreign exchange lending for natural persons. However, borrowing in foreign currency, banks and so do not give - without any postanovleniy.Bankiry believe that the fate of troubled loans will depend on the policy of the NBU.

devaluation of the hryvnia could lead to further increases in defaults on loans, which, in turn, lead to deterioration of the currency of the loan portfolio, - said Berkun. The behavior of the currency and the policy of the regulator did not cause the financiers of confidence in the future, but because in the next year, interest on loans is reduced, and new loans will remain the exception rather the rule.

Elena Pavlenko

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