before the July increase in excise on spirits volume of production increased dramatically. As expected vodochniki, people will not drink less in crisis sorokagradusnoy, they will just buy a cheap vodka

For six months I do not see a sale of cheap vodka. Moreover, that vodka, which used to cost 12 hryvnia, now costs about 14-15 hryvnia per bottle - shares his observations of Technical Staff one of the banks, which, except little white does not recognize any other spirits.

cheap vodka in retail really left. Director of the Association Ukrvodka Ivan Zholner explains: November 30, 2008 the Cabinet set minimum retail price of vodka in the hryvnia rate of 14 per pollitrovuyu bottle. Then the adoption of minimum prices in the forty very happy producers of branded vodka - the main initiators of the appearance of the document. They unanimously declared that this would reduce the proportion of illegal goods on the market, as consumers simply give up the road left of vodka.

boom before the new excise tax

In July last year, predicting market trends, we expect that a stable economic situation will lead to the further development of the industry. But a year later, unfortunately, point to the market both in kind and in monetary terms, - recognizes the marketing Director vodka company Olympus Elena Annenko. According to her hypothesis, because of the economic crisis, the rapid reduction of the solvency of the population, as well as growth in excise tax capacity of the market vodka in the current year will fall by 20% and will be converted to pollitrovki about 600 million bottles. In monetary terms, according Annenko, it falls 15% compared with 2008-m. According to the players, last year the volume of domestic vodka market amounted to about 13 billion hryvnia.

Marketing Director of the Soyuz-Victan Basil Profir, supporting a colleague, also spoke about market failures in monetary terms. His forecasts are more pessimistic. Before, consumers are actively buying a bottle of vodka and a 25 hryvnia, and this segment is rapidly growing. And now people are buying the cheaper product - for 15-17 hryvnia. Therefore, in general, the fall in monetary terms may amount to 25-30 percent, -- Notes Profir.

Nevertheless, judging from the data distillery Khortytsya, still with the volumes from vodochnikov was all right. Commercial Director of enterprise Alexei Tikhonov says: consumption of vodka in Ukraine last year totaled 45.3 million returned, or more than 900 million half-liter bottles (up to 2007-th - 10%). This year, the production and consumption of vodka in Ukraine, and in the world, in general, not decreased, and vice versa - have grown, - he assures. The same tendency was noticed and in the company Soyuz-Victan. In June 2009 compared with June 2008-the first production grew by 66 percent, - said Profir.

However, such a significant increase in production vodochniki explain the fever before the sharp increase in excise duty: 1 July the rate of excise duty has jumped from 21.50 to 34 hryvnia per liter, 100-percent ethanol. So manufacturers have tried to fill the maximum storage products, stuck excise stamps purchased at the old rates.

Fifty kopecks for degrees

Judging by the complaints vodochnikov, namely excise duty - their main enemy. Minimum pricing is based on the excise tax of $ 21.50 hryvnia per liter hundred percent alcohol. Naturally, the minimum wholesale selling price of products will increase in proportion to the tax burden, that is, at least three hryvnia for each bottle, - emphasizes Ivan Zholner. The company Nemiroff claim that even in the lower price segment of a bottle of vodka of 0,5 l capacity increases of three to four hryvnia. Soyuz-Victan predicts growth in the final price by 35% - at least up to 20 hryvnia.

According Profira every manufacturer will try to delay the increase in price or will increase it gradually. Soon, however, wishing to adopt a half-liter on the chest would have to leave each time with a single green banknotes with the portrait of Ivan Franko. According poltinnichku for every degree - joking vodochniki.

According to experts, the increased excise tax will not only increase the cost sorokagradusnoy in retail, but also adversely affect the production activities of the industry. Today, six large companies are shaping more than 60 per cent of the vodka market, and about 40 percent accounted for by other companies licensed to produce. Raising the excise tax in the first place hit by small and medium manufacturers, - says Ivan Zholner. The latter less opportunity to save on the scale. Many companies will stop at two or three months, andmost medium and small producers will go bankrupt or leave the shadows - predicts Basil Profir.

worth noting that reducing the production of an impending vodochniki pipe every time when MPs vote for raising the excise tax. For example, in January 2008, excise tax increased from 19 to 21,5 UAH, but this did not prevent the build up production of vodka in the past year by about 14%.

Left march

sharp increase in excise duties without a corresponding increase in the minimum prices for alcohol means, according to Ukrainian vodochnikov, the increase in illegal production. Alexei Tikhonov said: the proportion of the shadow of alcohol sold in Ukraine today is about 20%. Experts Association Ukrvodka forecast that the consumption of illegal vodka can grow up to 40-60 per cent. Risen steeply price gap between legally and illegally produced products makes the production of the latter a very profitable business, - said the Ukrainian vodka company Nemiroff. Meanwhile, in early 2006, the Union of wholesalers and manufacturers of alcohol and tobacco (SOVAT), which was then united all the leaders of the Ukrainian vodka market with confidence, declared that by 2010 the market share of legal vodka would be 90-95 percent.

Tikhonov sure: the Ukrainians will not drink less, but the price will change the segmentation of the market. According to him, in the past few years, the average price segment has grown by about 10% annually, while in the first half of this year, this growth stalled.

Elena Annenko notes that prior to August 2008 saw an increase in the upper price segment - from 36 to 39% from July 2007 to July 2008 and lower decrease - from 30 to 24% over the same period (according to research Company MEMRB). This trend was due to sustained improvements in population. Since August, consumers of vodka went into save mode and become more aware of the price, and manufacturers have begun to conduct the price of shares in trading networks, - said Annenko. According to her figures, for the past year the proportion of upper-and lower-price segment fell from 40 to 35% and from 26 to 19%, respectively, while the share of medium rose from 29 to 34%.

With the introduction of minimum retail prices in November 2008 the first manufacturers marks the lower price segment have been forced to raise the cost of a half-liter bottles to 14 hryvnia. New price exceeded the perceived value of these brands. Some vodochniki working in the middle segment, on the contrary, slightly reduced prices. If they had a bottle sold in retail for 15 hryvnia, then after the introduction of minimum prices - for 14-14,50 hryvnia. Cheap brands, especially unpromoted, are clearly losing the middle. According to Olympus, the lower segment of branded vodka shrank from 28 to 22% for the period from March 2008 to March 2009.

Retailers view the situation differently. Marketing Director, CJSC Cocktail Igor Garbaruk asserts that in the first half of 2009 are most in demand, as in the past year are middle-price segment (17-20 hryvnia) and medium (20-30 hryvnia). In this range of average of vodka somewhat wider. And sales of premium products (60 hryvnia and above) declined by about 5%.

Vodochnikov pleased that the Ukrainians still opt for a national producer. The share of foreign goods on the Ukrainian market of vodka, according to Alexei Tikhonov, is just one percent, and it almost has not increased since the entry of Ukraine into the WTO. The explanation is simple enough: Ukrainian market of strong alcohol has already been formed and structured. Domestic producers - very strong players, - boasts commercial director Khortytsya. Compared to 2008, the percentage of presence of imported vodka in the range of even declined, - agrees Garbaruk.

Future in darkness

If

on production, imports and the informal market vodochniki least something telling (although the data sometimes disagree strongly), then about their real monetary losses associated with the crisis, and the marketing plans are silent. One of the spirits market participants tried to justify himself and colleagues: The fact is that now all zamorocheny their marketing budgets, new products and programs. Everyone is afraid that a competitor can of something to learn. Many manufacturers in promoting and trying to update grades how you can invest less money. Therefore, all very sharp silence.

However, expert has something to find out. Earnings producers sorokagradusnoy because of the crisis, but also because of the introduction of new excise taxes actually fell, but they are still good. If last fall at a price of 14 hryvnia producer earned six or seven hryvnia on a bottle of vodka, but now - three or four hryvnia. And all this - the net profit, - said one of the players. And then he misspoke, that these figures are very approximate and averaged. They say all depends on what kind of price vodochniki buy raw materials - ranging from alcohol and finishing with a stopper.

Despite the existence of profit (in many other sectors of such a concept at the time of economic crisis simply forgotten), vodka producers continue to complain about his hard life. Compared to the 2006-2007 years the industry average margin has decreased by half. Profitability declined due to increased costs, including production and distribution. At the same time, afraid of losing significant market share, most producers in 2007-2008 consciously to curb inflation - on the shelves of shops with official Ukrainian vodka competes gray. The situation has not improved this year, but with an increase in excise tax margins decreased even further , - complains Alexei Tikhonov.

Other

vodochniki recognized that in the future, the focus going to pay the average costs of production. I do not think the market will begin to appear new brands in this segment. Is it that they will show those producers who had previously been more focused on, say, nizhnetsenovoy segment. Already this is happening, - said the head of one of the Ukrainian distilleries . He stressed that the manufacturers will be very cautious in their spending, including advertising and logistics. According to him, even now the costs of promotion are reduced to five or even ten times compared to the same period last year.

addition, vodochniki will freeze projects to expand capacity. Actually, they already do. Example - Opening Khortytsya plant in Russia on hold for a year and a half. The company had intended to start a distillery near St. Petersburg at the end of 2010.

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