Overview of the foreign exchange market 08.06.2009

Written by admin on June 13th, 2009

These labor-market United States - which last week were valued as the most popular investor information - were the result significantly better than experts predicted. Number of jobs in sectors outside of agriculture in America, May, TG decreased by 345 to 000 expected by analysts, on average, reduce this figure to 521 000 and revised from - 539 to 000 - 504 000 values of this indicator in the previous month.

Nevertheless, the relatively high prices of risky assets such relatively favorable statistics support in the end did not have. Against this background rate EUR /USD, testing on Friday evening near the point of resistance 1.4270 /00, to today's opening session of the European down to 1,3940.

Against the background of the information coming into the last of the countries of Eastern Europe, the market seems to be more oriented in their assessments of the risks associated with the budgetary problems of the EU and its periphery.

Prime Minister of Latvia V. Dombrovskis on Friday said that the issue of devaluation of the currency of the country was not discussed during a meeting of representatives of the IMF and the European Union with the leadership of the Latvian Cabinet of Ministers. Last week, the Government of Latvia during the extraordinary meeting, approved an amendment to the state budget in 2009, providing for a budget deficit of 9.2% of GDP in the fall of the economy by 18% (g /d). Against this background, short-term lending rates in Latvian lats exceeded 100% per annum, reflecting a sharp increase in market expectations of devaluation of the currency of that country.
Also on Friday the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko has ordered the transfer to Gazprom $ 475 million the money was obtained through the additional issue of the Ukrainian hryvnia.

According to information provided to the market last Wednesday, France will seek relief from the EU fiscal discipline to the euro. As is known, only 13 of the 16 euro zone countries can meet the budget deficit not exceeding 3% of GDP. At the same time adhering to deadlines set by the European Commission eliminate the deficit is likely to slow the economic recovery in Europe. According to Finance Minister K. Lagarde of France, it is necessary to alleviate the requirements for fiscal discipline to the countries of the eurozone, so that they focus on preserving jobs rather than according to the paper standards. According to European media, the matter will be discussed at a meeting of EU finance ministers earlier this week.

parallel with the information in the foreign exchange segment has increased the likelihood of discussion of the application of the Swiss National Bank of quantitative easing policy in connection with the collapse of national CPI index to mark four decades of minimal and fairly rapid deterioration of the GDP of the country against the backdrop of weakening its performance net - exports.

Financial management

euro area, as evidenced by the June session of the ECB, continues to wait for measures of monetary support to the national economy. However, as we can see, life goes and European politicians are more difficult to control the economic and political situation in the region, while maintaining commitment to tough fiscal principles.

Against this background rate EUR /USD remains at the moment, the possibility of further reduction in run the coming months.  
Quotations

yen traded on the FX is in general lower than the opening last Friday. First of all, it is obviously related to the rate of USD /JPY. Last Wednesday, a member of the Council of the Bank of Japan H. Kamezaki, noted in his speech at a conference with representatives of national business, that the medium-term dynamics of the economy of Japan may be less favorable than expected at the present time, although the signs of crisis in this case had reached the bottom recently appeared. Meanwhile, the BoJ and MoF limited capacity for further monetary and fiscal incentives of national business segment, the deterioration of the results of foreign trade activities of Japanese companies continue to point to the possibility of devaluation of yen marked in the medium term. According to today's data, Japan's trade surplus in April, TG rose to Y184, 3 billion to Y132, 9 billion in March 2009, but was nevertheless lower than the projected market value of Y184, 6 billion and has maintained a negative trend of recent quarters.

However, from the perspective of the coming weeks, quotes JPY on FX, perhaps, most experienced some consolidation, as part of its positive correlation with the traditional values on the highly risky assets. In doing so, the U.S. dollar to the yen may still continue to increase. To increase considerably in the recent return UST and American corporate bonds in the current environment may be a decisive factor in favor of the increasing interest of Japanese investors in U.S. financial investments.


 

Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy basket today by 12:00 Moscow time was 31.08 and 36.63 rubles. against, respectively, 30.75 and 36.60 rubles. at auction Friday morning session.
Technical factors, as well as increasing in recent weeks, the medium-term financial and economic risks are still allowing the visible bear RUB course correction in the currency market in the coming weeks.

At the same time, factors of overall stabilization of global financial and commodity segments emerging in the II quarter of TG, is presented as a whole is still valid and will discourage the negative dynamics of the course the Russian currency.

Week on the world stage: reboot with the Arab world and in European Parliament elections
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Overview of the foreign exchange market for 09.06.2009
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United States: pessimists barely outweighed optimists
Europe: investors doubted the validity of the further growth of shares
Asia: the quest for the fair value of shares and a fall in oil prices indices painted red
Latin America: the expectations of changes in interest rates weakened the markets of Brazil and Mexico consolidated Indexes
United States: employment has fallen, take fewer ...

 

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