Yesterday's data

macro-economic statistics supported the activity of some bulls segment on vysokoriskovannyh assets. The index of leading indicators for the United States may TG showed an increase of 1.2% (mm) against the average forecast, and its value in April 2009, equal to 0.9% and 1.1%. Calculated FRB Philadelphia regional U.S. business climate indicator in industry in June TG increased up to -2.2 point to -18pt. expected, on average, specialists.

Swiss National Bank yesterday left unchanged its target rate is LIBOR, which is 0,0-0,75%, and noted that it would continue the policy of quantitative easing and remained prepared to act decisively to prevent its currency in FX .

Nevertheless, despite the increase in energy prices quotes, shares, an increase of purchases in the carry trade, quotation EUR /USD, seems to show reluctance to resume growth. Yesterday, the currency pair has not been able to overcome the resistance of 1.4000, which, in terms of technical indicators, is at the moment, further decline in future weeks. It is necessary in this regard to note that a positive correlation between the dynamics of the euro to the dollar and the trend value of risky assets is not a process based on the linear dependence (Fig. 1). In the face of tightening control over the security of investments, increasing the price volatility of the market seems to be very selective in the choice of the correlation relationships for use in their trade practices. Many market relevance, timeliness in previous years and quarters, now stop working. Among recent examples - the reduction rate USD /JPY, developing on a background of relatively strong growth rates of American trezheriz.

If

invest in risk that have recently dominated the market, bypassed as a result of EU countries with their economic and financial problems, we may be witnessing a declining rate EUR /USD on a background of rising prices for raw materials, improving the quotation of shares and corporate bonds.

The technical analysis of currency pairs
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