Russian stock market after a significant decline in June, on the basis of the past month has been able to show positive momentum, but still remains among the outsiders among the emerging markets: RTS index for July rose by only 3,1% - to 1017.47 points and MICEX index gained 8.4% - to 1053.3 points.
Russian stock market on the basis of the past month showed one of the worst results among the markets of emerging economies, whose agency Standard Poor s country expects investment indexes SP /IFCI. The growth of the Russian index of 30 July was only 1.3%. Main competitorsfor Russia BRIC feel noticeably better: in particular, the growth of the stock index of Brazil was 8.8%, India - 5.4%, China - 9,5%. Leaders same growth on this time had become Poland (26.1% ), Indonesia (19.4%), Turkey (81,3%) and Czech Republic (16,2%).
As the experts Interfax-CEA, the beginning of July, it was negative for the Russian stock market, which by the end of the first ten months rolled to April levels, losing about 15% of indices due to increased sales in the remaining concerns that the recovery of the world economy will be longer than expected. Moreover, in global markets remained concerns about the financial results of companies that had started to publish their reports in large numbers from mid-month. All this led to the movement of funds from equity investors in the dollar and U.S. treasury bonds. At the same time world oil prices fell to $ 60 per barrel, which also davilo of domestic stock and foreign exchange market, which is highly dependent on the dynamics of the value of black gold.
situation changed early in the second decade of July, when the market became otygryvat loss of the previous period, the positive news from the United States, where falling corporate records for the second quarter were better than expectations, as well as the optimistic statements by monetary authorities, who returned to investors hope for a speedy recovery of world economy. In particular, spoke July 21 in the Senate, the head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA Ben Bernanke said the economy has shown tentative signs of stabilization, and the current low interest rates will remain a long time.
head of the Fed reported that after the decline in the first half of the economy to grow slightly in the remainder of 2009. The next year is projected gradual recovery, with some acceleration of activity in 2011. Unemployment, according to B. Bernanke, will reach a peak at the end of this year and is expected to decline in 2010-2011, but remain significantly above the levels that the Fed sees as stable, and inflation this year will be lower than in the past years.
Macroeconomic data for the euro area and in the United States also supported the bulls. In particular, the index of confidence in the euro-zone economy and data on unemployment in Germany were better than expectations, weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States were also predominantly positive.
Dynamics of Russian Eurobonds in July also generally coincides with the dynamics of the domestic stock market - the decline in the first ten months (the most liquid market quotes thirty sovereign eurobond issuance dropped to 97% of the nominal value) and the subsequent recovery, which by the middle of the third decade of July Eurobonds quotes Russia-30 went up to 101% of face value. At the end of the month the price of Russian thirty skorrektirovali down slightly (to 100.5% of nominal value), but still remained at 1.8% higher than a month earlier. Spread of these securities to a decade of US Treasuries by the end of the month fell to 385 basis points to 420 basis points at the end of June.
With regard to the national currency, the rate-up to July, and fell to the dollar and the euro against the backdrop of falling oil prices. Thus, the dollar rose to session calculations tomorrow to 31.64 rubles. /$ 1, or 55.5 kopecks in relation to the level of the closure on 30 June, the euro during the same period grew by 87.5 kopecks - up to 44.5 rubles. /EUR1. Cost bivalyutnoy basket ($ 0.55 and EUR 0,45) for the month rose to 70 cents, reaching the close of tenders on 31 July 37.52 rubles.
July
kept growing bivalyutnoy value of the basket, which started in June (for June basket rose by 26 kopecks). However, in July, in contrast to the previous month, the amplitude of fluctuations in the value of a basket bivalyutnoy has increased dramatically. In mid-month value of the basket flew up to 38.7 rubles, the highest level since April. Then, after falling to a level of 36.5 rubles, trash again began to increase.
Experts note a sharp increase in dependence between the dynamics of the ruble and the dynamics of world oil prices, which on the basis of the past month, has significantly decreased. In particular, index futures contracts for WTI crude oil brands in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) at the end of June was at $ 70-72 per barrel, while July 31, the contract was worth $ 67 a barrel.
July
Preliminary results on the global foreign exchange market suggests that the Russian ruble has shown, on the basis of the worst months of the dynamics of exchange among countries of G20. According to expert estimates, Interfax-CEA, the ruble to the dollar has lost around 1.5% on the basis of the month, while South African Rand fell by 1.2%, Indian Rupee - 1%, the Argentine peso - at 0.8% , Mexican peso - at 0.5%, euro and British pound - at 0.3%. All the other currencies of the G20 members or no change in the dollar, or grown up. The best result, in July showed the Canadian dollar, gaining 6.7%, the Turkish lira (3.5%) and the Brazilian Real (3,1 %).