Russia stock market opened the week with another conquest of annual summits of indices due to the closure of shorts and the external positive - increased world stock exchanges, and oil.
As a result of trades on Monday, the MICEX index rose to 1,357.44 points (3.77%), RTS index - to 1428.06 points (4.08%), core chips have risen in price on the stock exchanges in 1,2 -- 6,5%.
RTS Index futures exceeded the asset base of 14.4 points, indicating that a moderately positive attitudes of players.
increases in the prices Gazprom shares (6.2% on MICEX), VTB (RTS: VTBR) (4%), Lukoil (RTS: LKOH) (2,6%), Norilsk Nickel (RTS: GMKN) (5,5%), Rostelecom (RTS: RTKM) (1,2%), Rosneft (RTS: ROSN) (2,5%), Gazprom Neft (RTS: SIBN) (3 , 8%), Surgutneftegas (RTS: SNGS) (4,4%), Tatneft (RTS: TATN) (4,3%), Polyus Gold (RTS: PLZL) (3,2%) , Sberbank Russia (RTS: SBER) (3,6% ordinary and 5,5 'prefecture).
European stocks on Monday added more than 1%, and the rise of the indices started trading in the U.S. (18:45 to growth was 0,6-0,7%).
support from Europe on Monday had a record of the Dutch consumer electronics manufacturer Philips, which showed a net profit for the third quarter when the expected loss (second quarter, the company has also been profitable, despite the expected loss). Positive results have contributed to measures to reduce costs and less significant decrease in revenue than expected. Philips net profit in the third quarter totaled 174 million euros compared with 57 million euros for the same period last year, analysts expected a loss of $ 41 million euros.
Petroleum rises in price on expectations of increasing demand for energy as the restoration of the world economy after the recession, as well as a weaker dollar (euro exceeded $ 1.48). The rise in oil prices accelerated after the Singapore Government to increase the economic forecast.
Price
November futures contracts for WTI crude oil to 18:45 on Monday was $ 73.94 per barrel (2.4%).
According to a senior trader IR Maxwell Capital Michael Molodova, skyrocketing stock market of Russia is due to the effect of the forced closure of shorts who opened long enough (for example, in late September).
The market is now not only is overbought, but does not match the price of reality. The price of shares in Rosneft, for example, is only 10% below historic highs, when the price of oil was above $ 140 per barrel WTI, but now it is in the area $ 70 per barrel. The situation is quite funny, this game is usually quickly ends with a sharp reversal. Take off the market was reinforced by the pension money, has also played its role as the influx of Western speculative investments. But this speculative inflows as quickly comes and goes, any negative message can topple Russia shares, and then the market will be the leaders in the fall, - he said the agency Interfax-AFI .
All of the maximum target for the correction of the fall in June and July of this year, haslong been achieved, the market is overbought, the risks of going wild . We need to fix profit, selling stocks and even think about opening short on many papers. Theoretically, turn can be very painful, the RTS index could easily slide into the area of 1000 points , - M. Young.
Such opinion of the managing company assets Pilgrim Asset Management Igor Kissel, who remarks that the rise of the market in recent days was required influx of Western capital since early October and closing short positions, the players who put on a downward correction.
Since October, celebrated the flow of money from Western foundations, which had preferred not to enter the market and wait for another wave of decline, but now have decided not to miss the chance to do something this year. Secondly, it triggered a technical factor, but namely the closure of shorts (the largest of their volume was observed in the Savings Bank and Subsidiaries'), which raised the market last Friday and Monday. The wave of purchases would subside in the afternoon, but appeared positive external background which has kept downward correction. In general, Considering the appetites of buyers in the next couple of days, the probability of a reversal of the market down less than the opportunity to see the stock price even higher, - he said.
Traders said
IR Uralsib Capital Valentina Yegorova, the stock market rose after Europe and the oil, which feed on talking about inflation rally amid expectations of further weakening of the dollar.
is also still a lot of asset managers who have nedoinvestiroval means and missed the rally of shares, and not waiting for the mythical correction. The market, of course, locally overheated, a correction can be lightning fast, but hardly very profound. The 10-15% of the market may prosest, but he still remains at a fairly high level. While looking up - he added.
Head of the stock control of the Moscow branch of the bank Vadim Smolensky Khloponin also notes that most players tend to purchase rather than to the correction.
Global investors' optimism, high saturation of the liquidity of credit institutions, as well as traditionally blessed for the domestic market factor - rising oil prices - these are the main reasons for the rally at domestic sites. Most players tend to purchase rather than a correction, showing greater activity in anticipation of reporting season of American companies. However, in this case it is better to take a position of moderate optimism: Russia's ground very quickly and in a fairly short period of time away from the minimum levels, while the restoration of the real economy is still too early to say. In such conditions, a substantial part is speculative transactions, therefore, the risks of correction are large enough: if the market goes liquidity, or the commodity market will blow the wind of change, and oil prices will change course, the sales can not be avoided. On the other hand, in case of positive reporting market may receive new impetus to the rally in the green zone (this week, the attention of the players will be attracted to the records of U.S. banks - JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America). Indicators of U.S. banks will show how the expectations of economic recovery, and also largely determine the dynamics of securities of companies of the financial sector - Sberbank and VTB, - he said.
According to the Managing Director for Corporate Customers IF Olma Sergei Sheykova as long as the inflow of liquidity to the markets of commodities and stocks, the RTS index is likely to remain in an uptrend. According to technical analysis, the immediate goal may lie in the range of 1500-1550 points on the RTS index. An important factor for the market remains the flow of reporting of large companies for the third quarter of this year, he believes.
analyst at IFC Alemar Basil Konuzin believes that the market in the coming days will be very volatile because the struggle between the expectations of recovery in the world economy and the fear of overbought. The focus players will be attracted to the financial statements of U.S. companies, which, in their view, must provide proof of restoration of the corporate sector. Are worth special mention reports from Intel and Johnson Johnson on Wednesday, JP Morgan and Citigroup on Thursday on Friday. It is possible that due to recovery in the sector of MA and credit growth of U.S. banking otraportuet on the growth of profits and will be the leaders in the course of trading this week that Russian banks would support the action, he said.
According to the analyst NetTrader.ru Bogdan Zvarych, the MICEX index formed a short-term uptrend, which may in the future to support it, so in the current situation it is recommended to keep the players' long positions. The immediate goal of an index may be a level of 1370 points (local resistance is located at 1350 points), at the approach to which active players can lock in profits.
The Dow Jones on Friday soared to its highest level for the year as positive analysts' recommendations resulted in an increase of quotations of securities of high-tech enterprises and companies of the health sector.
Index SP 500 over the past week added the maximum 4.5% in July, because the index of business activity in the U.S. service sector grew in September after 11 months of decline, the reduction of applications for unemployment benefits exceeded the forecast, Alcoa began the season as a quarterly reporting unexpected profit. Indicator grew up all 5 trading sessions last week - the first time since November 2006.
Friday marks 2 years since that day, as SP 500 and Dow Jones reached a historic high at the moment indicators are below this level at 30%.
Asian stock markets on a single trend in stocks is not developed. Losers were made by oil companies in South Korea and other countries of the region, as investors feared that their quarterly reporting would be worse than forecasts.
The Singapore Government has improved the forecast of GDP in 2009 (now the country's GDP is expected to decline this year at 2.5% instead of the previously projected 4.6%, and in the beginning of the year - even 9%).
According to data released on Monday, Singapore's GDP grew in the third quarter to 14,9% compared to second quarter. In the second quarter of Singapore's economy has grown, exceeding forecasts by 20% compared with the first three months.
Among second-tier on the MICEX on Monday were the best performing stocks generating companies: OGK-1 (RTS: OGKA) (12,5%), OGK-2 (RTS: OGKB) (14,3%), OGK-3 (RTS: OGKC) (15,1%), OGK-4 (RTS: OGKD) (18,3%), OGK-5 (RTS: OGKE) (30,6%). Also shares soared Transneft (RTS: TRNF) (7,4%).
Подешевели акции МРСК Северного Кавказа (РТС: MRKK) (-5,9%), РазгулÑÑ (РТС: GRAZ) (-3,5%), МоÑÑнерго (РТС: MSNG) (-3 , 3%).
total volume of shares traded on the RTS Classic Market for the day totaled $ 18.27 million in Section RTS Standard turnover reached $ 518.84 million, on the MICEX exchange transaction volume has exceeded 97.269 billion rubles (leader - Gazprom (RTS: GAZP) - 30.38 billion rubles).
The worst of the market today may look like paper oil industry and industry, continued growth is expected in the energy sector
In the case of Drawdown worse than the market may look action Sberbank, Rosneft and GMK Norilsk Nickel
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Forex - results of the day