On Friday, the Russian stock market is again falling on the background of the negative dynamics of commodity exchanges and the continuing concerns about the financial stability of several European countries: RTS (-3.55%), MICEX (-2.88%).

Shares of oil and gas became cheaper under the pressure of falling oil price: Gazprom (-2,3%), Rosneft (-3,5%), LUKOIL (-2,7%). Among the papers of the banking sector suffered the largest fire-sale shares of VTB, depreciating by 4.5%, Sberbank of paper fell by 2,0%. Shares of steel companies look worse than the market: Severstal (-5,5%), NLMK (-5.4%), MMK (-3.4%).

On Friday, U.S. stock indices closed in the positive range. Increased demand was the action of high-tech companies. The published statistics on the labor market was mixed, and virtually no influence on the course of bidding. Asian stock market indicators today, mostly falling on a background of weak corporate reports - in particular, investors disappointed with the financial results of the Panasonic and Casio. Oil prices are now adjusted after a sharp fall on Friday. A barrel of Brent crude oilfddworth $ 70,1. In the metals market also observed the positive dynamics.

We estimate that morning"s background is more positive for the Russian stock market. After the fall on Friday, today there is an opportunity for correction. Higher oil prices can support the shares of oil and gas companies and the market as a whole. Today is not expected to be published vital statistics.

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As a result of trades on Friday in the American Dow-Jones index rose by 0,1%, SP - on 0,29%, Nasdaq - at 0.738%. As a result, the value Dow-Jones reached the level of 10,012.23 points, SP - 1066,19, Nasdaq - 2141,12 points.

stock index in Brazil BRSP BOVESPA IND decreased by 1.832% and amounted to 62,762.7 points.

Index of the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 dropped to 1.53% and closed at 5,060.92 points. Index of the Paris stock exchange CAC 40 fell 3.4% and closed at 3,563.76 points. Index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX dropped to 1.79% and closed at 5,434.34.

value of the Japanese Nikkei index dropped to the present time 1,068% and amounted to 9,949.7 points.

To date, China"s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% and is at 2,940.583 points.

In the "World"s Markets you can read news, reviews and commentaries on the situation on foreign markets.

the March contract price for crude oil varieties Light on the New York Stock Exchange NYMEX (Crude) was $ 71.65 per barrel (on Friday at the same time, it was $ 73.4 per barrel), the price of futures on Brent crude on London Stock Exchange was $ IPE 70.091000per barrel (on Friday at the same time, it was $ 72.26 per barrel).

As a result of trades on the closing price of ADRs on Russian stocks were:
VTB (Eng) -4.73, Gazprom (Eng) - 23.76, Lukoil (Eng) - 53, Nor. Nickel (Eng) - 14,71, Rosneft (Eng) - 7,24, Surgutnfgz (Eng) - 8,02, Mobil TeleSystem (USA) - 44.59, Rostelecom (USA) - 27.35, Vympelcom (USA) - 17,2, Mechel Steel (USA) - 19.72.

For change of quotations on the Russian and foreign sites, you can follow in the sections "Quotations of securities" and "Interactive TECHNICAL EXPERTISE. Click to continue »

persistent attempts ranching lobby bar the way to the country of import meat yielded results: the supply of raw materials decreased by 20%. For the industry the benefit of this is obvious: the economy began to build up the livestock. But to offer domestic product at affordable prices, farmers are not in a hurry, forcing refiners to postpone the transition to the new "bezsoevye" GOST sausage production until better times.

Ukraine once again started to increase purchasing prices for meat. Only the first three weeks in January prices, according to the agency AAA, increased by almost 14% to 13,5 UAH. per kilogram live weight. For comparison: in November - early December, farmers are not able to exercise raw materials more expensive than 11 UAH /kg. According to analyst UkrAgroConsult Olga Brain, prices continue to rise in the short term, adding a monthly basis at least 5-10%.

price hike production of domestic livestock due primarily to the situation in the segment of imported raw materials. According to AAA, the end of 2009 meat import to Ukraine dropped by 20% - up to 363 tons This reduction of supply - the merit of local ranchers, who for years have made many attempts to thwart foreign suppliers. Although the total blocking imports, which sought to farmers, did not happen, diverse and "nasty things to him," for example, quality control and mass culling of imported meat to Ukraine, the complexity of customs, etc., did their job.

But even those parties that infiltrate across the border, offered already for very different prices. If six months ago, imported raw materials cost by 30-50% cheaper than domestic, by the end of the season the difference was reduced to 10-15%, and in some batches it even more expensive than local products. For example, the German chilled pork sold in the territory of our country from 18 UAH /kg. According to the company AAA, in December last year to 13% more expensive and imported beef: some sellers asking for it more than 19 UAH /kg. The increase in the cost of imported meat to a large extent due to the difficulties in crossing the border. In addition, played a role appreciation of the euro. Click to continue »

Ladies and gentlemen!

Monday at 15:00 Moscow time on our site will begin a conference on: "Election of the President of Ukraine: the winners and losers" .

On the eve of the second round of presidential elections in Ukraine, Ukrainian politicians are increasingly remembered Maidan. According to some experts, future development will depend not on who won and who the loser. In addition, it is expected that soon after the presidential election unfold the struggle for the post of prime minister and the composition of the Verkhovna Rada. And did not pass a second round of candidates who have refused to support Yanukovych and Tymoshenko have already announced their intention to participate in this struggle.

How realistic is the scenario that the Maidan-2010 will be translated into reality? With what will have to face the new president of Ukraine after the election? What are the main conclusions can be drawn from the last election campaign?

Participants:

Viktor Mironenko , head of the Center Ukrainian Research Institute of Europe

Andrei Okara , a political scientist, Director of the Center for East European Studies

Valery Semenenko , co-chair of the Association of Ukrainians in Russia and the Chairman of the NGO "Ukrainians of Moscow"

Kirill Frolov , Head of the department of Ukraine Institute of CIS

Eugene Kopatko , a sociologist Holding Research Branding Group

Yuri Panasik , head of the Heritage Foundation Eurasia

Ask the experts can now!

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First, the granting of loans to be thawed for corporate clients. The resumption of lending to banks - the only way to restore the profitability of the business. However, at least until the end of this year, high interest rates and tight lending conditions remain unchanged.

Credit resuscitation

continuing credit stagnation bankers attributed to political factors. "If after the presidential elections, political and economic situation to normal in the second half of banks with excess liquidity, will begin to lend more actively. To improve its financial performance, financial institutions are interested in the resumption of lending," - said Dmitry Sologub, head of research and analysis of Raiffeisen Bank Aval.

Among the major creditors of enterprises will continue to appear on state-owned banks, which even in the last year managed to set records for the credit implosion in the economy. With respect to segment physical persons, it will be in the forefront of "daughters" of foreign banks have r1000eceived support and contribute to the capital from the parent structures. "Expect to have activity only against some Western players. They will focus on short credits, as" long "money has not yet appeared in the country", - says Greg Krasnov, CEO of Platinum Bank.

However, the activity of "foreigners" will moderate. The reason - record losses that they were in 2009 because of the aggressive policy pursued by the pre-crisis years. "Shareholders will not long tolerate such a situation, and soon will demand from its Ukrainian unit profitable operation. Therefore, banks will be forced to lend," - said vice-chairman of one of the banks with foreign capital. However, scalded with milk, financiers are now promise to blow on the water. "After" work on the mistakes of the banks will be more carefully selected customers in the future ", - assured Dmitry Zinkov, chairman of OTP Bank.

Loans for selected
For physical persons

lending bankers are going to bet on the issue of "short" of loans in local currency. "First and foremost is to revive short-term hryvnia lending: consumer loans, auto loans for three to five years, overdrafts and credit cards" - predicts Piotr Kaczmarek, director of retail business, Alfa-Bank (Ukraine). Another area which bankers predict growth - cash loans. "Cash-loans compared to last year show the dynamics at the level of 15-20%", - believes Tzvetan Petrinin, deputy chairman of Retail Business, director of retail business and distribution of VAB Bank.

However, almost all surveyed banks were assured that no plans to soften the requirements for borrowers and conditions for granting loans. "Return to the rampant lending individuals, when the loan be made with a minimum initial contribution (and in some programs, and even without it), and all related transaction costs (commissions, insurance, etc.) could be financed through a loan, not exactly will be "- convinced Dmitry Zinck. "By establishing crediting physical persons, banks in the first place will start issuing loans to those customers that maintain a permanent relationship, as well as clients with positive credit history", - considers Tzvetan Petrinin.

will remain fairly high and the price of loans. Therefore, as in the current year, motorists will have to rely on the affiliate programs of banks with car dealers and manufacturers, providing preferential rates. "Lending rates remain at a high enough level - around 30% APR. Expect them to reduce the current year is not worth as resources for the banks will still be expensive", - says Sergey Alputov, head of monitoring the bank"s lending programs Khreschatyk.

Mortgage is not present

Few financial institutions promise to return this year to mortgage lending, and only a few - to grant loans to buy housing on the primary. "Maybe we are intensifying the work in the segment of mortgage lending as the primary and secondary markets for the purchase of real estate which is in the mortgage for bad loans as well as I know where the exchange of shelter" - told the press service of VTB Bank. Click to continue »

Today in the results:

• Energy and Energy

  new day nefterynke began with a correction upwards. After such a spectacular collapse usually oc1000curs the reverse movement against the opening of new long positions, as well as profit taking on short positions. Despite the drop in the index MSI Asia-Pacific at 2.5%, oil has found support in the technical purchases.

  Oil on exchanges in New York and London on the basis of trading on February 4 2010. dramatically cheaper. Prices for oil futures fell one day at 5%, because of what a barrel of oil dropped in price by an average of $ 3,8.

  Dubai opened a new oil field.

  Ukraine intends to import in 2010. up to 1,5 million tonnes of Russian coal for thermal power plants.

  consumption in January 2010, the Russians rose by 7.2% ... read

• global stock market

  Baltic Dry index rose on Thursday after the fall of seven trades in a row.

  U.S. stock markets fell sharply on Thursday. Index Dow Jones Industrial Average closed just above the psychologically important level of 10,000, having experienced pressure from fears about the euro zone and the debt data on unemployment in the U.S.. Iron and Alcoa and energy giants Chevron and Exxon Mobil were among the many victims of falling share prices.

  Equity markets in Europe were closed on February 4 2010. decrease in the leading indexes, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index completed trading session "in a minus on 2,2%. On the mood of the players have adversely affected the macroeconomic news from Germany, where the volume of industrial orders in December 2009. taking into account seasonal factors, fell by 2.3% relative to the previous month. At the same time, analysts had expected growth of this indicator on 0,2%.

  stock trading in Japan today completed the most significant decline in the index Nikkei over the past two months. As a result of trading the index fell by 2.89% to 10,057.09 points.
  Investors in Japan reacted symmetrically on the sale of shares on Wall Street, which was the result of unexpectedly weak data on U.S. labor market.

  As a result of trading on February 4 MICEX index fell by 35.21 points (2.46%) to close the previous session and reached 1395.87. Bidding took place by active c above average.
  Results of the trading day the Russians: investors showed an appetite for sales.

  RTS Index yesterday fell 2.93% to 1,463.01 points. Click to continue »

The technique, developed by Bill Wolf, sugges1000ts that the inertia that has the place to be in the financial markets can be usefully applied to predict the price dynamics of market instruments. A Newton"s Law, or Law of Inertia is a major factor for such predictions. Drawing attention to the Russian stock market, namely, the shares of Rosneft, it becomes obvious that the current situation continues to have to lower prices.

Using a technique called "Wave Wolf", from the top on the bar, or "candle" schedule, we determine tochnku the beginning of our reading of the new wave. To generate the level of trust we need to find at least 4 reference points. Point 2 - starting for this reference. Having said that, we can find a point 2 only once formed the points 1 and 3. Point 2 does not necessarily have to be long-term trend reversal, voplne enough to make it a minimum of such fluctuations. One of the prerequisites is that tochnka 3 should be above the point 1 and point 4 should be lower than point 1, as shown in our example.

drawing a straight line from point 1 to point 3, we got a point, 5 of which began turning purporting to point 6, namely, - 200 rubles for Rosneft shares in the short term.

Recommendation : Short selling of shares in Rosneft to 200 rubles per share. In the case of force majeure and change the overall mood of the market, the level of stop-loss is determined by the position of 247 rubles per share as the last note of the local peak of the market.

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"Black Friday"

This Friday could be called "black". In the best tradition of a bear market behavior of stock indices. Having opened gepom down to within 1% of paper rolled on. Reducing goes across the spectrum of liquid stocks, the protective paper is not, in a1000ddition to traditional Rostelecom obychki (1,9%). At 13.30 Moscow time the MICEX index fell already at 3,3%, to 1349.76 mark n. The dollar index RTS lose weight faster because of currency revaluation is not in favor of the ruble. The RTS index dropped below the psychological mark of 1400 points (§ 1399.91, -4.31%). Traditionally strong in recent years Gazprom and Sberbank cheaper with all the nearly 4%.

The term"s RTS and MICEX are declining positive basis in the contracts on the indices. The March futures on the RTS and does occasionally goes into a small bekvordatsiyu. Contango in the futures on the MICEX index was 4 points on the scale of the index. Grow today, only futures on the ruble /dollar, "American" is rapidly becoming more expensive, the last mark 30 656 rubles per one thousand dollars with execution in March. Futures on overseas stock indices as in "red" color that does not augur a positive opening for investors.

Such a course of trading at the same time is a paradise for speculators, who finally wait for the market in a range of breakdown down. At the same time, long-term basis since February of 2009, our market is still in an upward channel, nothing terrible has happened. Intraday volatility is off scale. The positive moments can be benefited from the purchase of put options on the index and liquid securities. That the leaders of trades FORTS section of options today with shackles on Gazprom strikes 180 and 170 rubles per share, in the fetters of Sberbank, with the right to sell the asset for 80 rubles and a harness on the RTS index to the level of 1400 points in March. Implied volatility is adequately increased by 3-4 percentage points compared with the last trading sessions.

luck in trading!

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At the end of the day the market could rebound to draw

Today, trading on the Russian sites have opened lower quotations, helped by a negative external background as a reduction in U.S. markets and energy prices. After the morning"s "Gap", where the MICEX index lost about 1.5%, the decline was continued. The worst of the market traded securities of Sberbank and VTB, losing 3,7% and 3,5% respectively. Better market looks Rostelecom (1,3%) and Uralsvyazinform (0%). By 13.00 the MICEX index lost 2.9%, dropping to a level of 1355.5 points.

canceled the last day of the model upward movement with the aim at 1,485 points today with the opening of the "Bears" once again took the initiative in their own hands, helped by the external background. However, they are not limited to breakdown "gepom" level of 1390. After the first thirty minutes of trading, sales increase MICEX index below the January minimum set at 1,365 points. It is likely that current levels remain until the release of statistics on unemployment rate (Unemployment Rate, expected 10%, the previous value of 10%) and the number of new jobs in non-agricultural sectors (Nonfarm Payrolls, expected 15 thousand, the previous value of -85 thousand ) in January, to be published at 16.30 MSK. If the data could be better than expected, "bulls" can attempt to upward movement, the purpose of which will be the breakdown level of 1365 and consolidating above it. If the data would be on the side of "Bears", until the end of the trading market could go lower still, as a last-minute draw a small rebound, associated with the closing of speculative short positions before the weekend.

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Review Oil Market for 04.02.10

Dynamics
Quotes of the oil market on Thursday, February 4 on the basis of auction closed with a significant decrease in the price of the background of strengthening U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market, FOREX, and also because of the negative dynamics of neighboring markets and stock exchanges.

On the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH the March futures price for U.S. light crude fell by 3.84, or 5.0%, and its price was 73.14 dollars per barrel, which was the lowest close since January 29 and thus significant decline compared to the previous day from July 29.

On the ICE exchange in London, Brent crude futures price fell 3.79, or 5.0%, to 72.13 dollars per barrel.

Causes
On Thursday, February 4 quotes in the market of "black gold" closed with a decrease in price under the influence of these factors: 1 - Economic data - the initial reason for reducing the cost of oil was an unexpected increase in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. last week 24-30 January (as reported by U.S. Labor Department the number of applications increased by 8000 to 480 000), 2 - to strengthen the U.S. dollar in the FOREX market after the release of economic news and makrostatistiki (increased fears that Greece, Portugal and Spain could face difficulties in trying to regain1000control over their budgets, thereby jeopardizing the fragile economic recovery euro), 3 - negative dynamics of the stock sites, where the major U.S. stock indexes closed in the red zone against the disappointing financial statements of some companies (Dow Jones industrial average - 10002.18 (-268.37, or -2.61%), Nasdaq Composite - 2125.43 (-65.48, or -2.99%), SP 500 - 1063.11 (-34.17, or -3.11%)), 4 - reduction of adjacent markets, namely falling prices for the precious metals market, 5 - elimination of the positions - many market participants chose to take profits on a number of open long positions amid fears about the economy and growth in energy demand.

From the news it is worth noting that net profits Royal Dutch Shell fell in 2009 by 52% compared with 2008 and amounted to 12.718 billion dollars (2.04 dollars per share). In 2008, Shell has earned 26.476 billion dollars (4.27 dollars per share). We note that earlier this year, Royal Dutch Shell the first time in more than three years gave way to the title of the largest oil company by market capitalization in Europe the British BP.

What to expect?
Many analysts point to the fact that oil prices are still within the trading range of 70-80 dollars per barrel and may have potential for further growth. The close relationship between oil prices and the rate of the U.S. dollar is expected to continue to set the tone for trading on the oil market.

Why worry?
The main negative factors in the oil market are U.S. dollar and the technical picture, namely, psychological and technical level of $ 80 per barrel, which does not allow oil prices to go higher, thereby encouraging market participants to take profit on the open long positions.

Review precious metals market for 04.02.10

Dynamics
On Thursday, February 4 quotes for gold and silver closed with a large decrease in value against the strengthening U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market, FOREX, and also because of the negative dynamics of neighboring markets and stock exchanges, and technical reasons.

According to the results of trading on the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), quotes gold futures fell to 49.00 to 1063.00 dollars per troy ounce, quotes, silver futures fell 97 cents to 15.35 dollars per ounce.

Causes
On Thursday, 4 February futures on precious metals have completed trades with a decrease in the price of the following factors: 1 - strengthening of the dollar in the FOREX market amid falling risk appetite after economic makrostatistiki and news (as reported by the Ministry of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits rose by 8000 to 480 000), 2 - Economic News - news about the increasing concerns regarding the fact that Greece, Portugal and Spain could face difficulties when trying to regain control over their budgets, thereby jeopardizing the fragile economic recovery euro area, only stepped up the pressure for gold, 3 - negative dynamics of stock exchanges, where the major U.S. stock indexes closed in negative zone against the disappointing financial statements of some companies and economic news (Dow Jones industrial average - 10002.18 (-268.37 , or -2.61%), Nasdaq Composite - 2125.43 (-65.48, or -2.99%), SP 500 - 1063.11 (-34.17, or -3.11%)), 4 - for technical reasons - Gold futures overcame a strong technical resistance in the area 1100.00 U.S. $ per troy ounce, which prompted investors to take profit on many fronts, 5 - reduction in adjacent markets, namely the fall in prices on the oil market. &a1000mp;lt;br /> On the background of the reluctance of investors risking the prices of other precious metals at auction in New York also fell.

From the news it may be noted that Yamana has decided on the further development of its gold project in Brazil, Ernesto, this decision was based on positive results of a feasibility study and to increase the resources on the results of exploratory drilling. The project is represented by two fields. For the primary calculations, the duration of mining is estimated at seven years, with current reserves of gold, 710 thousand ounces (22 tons), established resources are estimated at 854 million ounces (25 tonnes). Construction of the mine to begin in mid-2010. And production - at the end of 2012. Expected capital expenditure of 116 million dollars. Operating expenses should make 427 dollars per ounce. Deposit Pau-a-Peak is located 62 km. to the south of the deposit and available for Ernesto road. The two fields are considered as a single project with excellent infrastructure will be developed in two mines, but the processing of ore will be produced at a gold processing plant.

What to expect?
Traditional purchase of precious metals in the early years of the funds, the general improvement in investor sentiment, as well as lowering the U.S. dollar will provide sustained support for quotations of gold and silver. However, the situation could change dramatically if the dollar will resume its strengthening, as the inverse correlation between the dollar and the prices of precious metals continues.

Why worry?
volatile changes in the currency market may be reflected in the sharp fluctuations of prices for precious metals.

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