MICEX by 12:00 Moscow time decreased by 0.95% to 1,405.92 points.

better market, traditionally for a period of decline in investment activity last quarter, now look paper "telecom". Ordinary shares of North-West Telecom, preferred and common stock Volgatelekoma and Uralsvyazinform, added the morning of 4,33%, 3,89%, 3,28%, 3,02% and 2,9%.

On Friday, federal media published information that the management of telecommunications holding Svyazinvest in early February 2010 for the first time to discuss the methodology of calculation of exchange of shares of Rostelecom shares of interregional communication companies within the holding.

The worst of the market - possibly under the influence of technical factors - are traded actively cherish last week of paper MRSC of North Caucasus. Their value has fallen after the opening session at 4.20%.

Share Price PIC developers and RTM seems to act out again, released last week about the beginning of the arbitration proceedings at the suit of the Savings Bank to recover with "RTM" and OOO "RTM Lipetsk" to 1,313 billion rubles.

rise in global inflation and investment risks continue to limit the possibility of growth of quotations, including index MICEX from the perspective of the next few weeks.

In the short run, however, information on the planned U.S. leadership on fiscal measures supporting the economy may provide some restoration of purchases on domestic and global equity segment.

Click to continue »

Stock Indexes U.S. and China try their levels of support. Russia and Brazil are trying to hold on despite the overall negative

set of more than optimistic macroeconomic statistics, released on Friday evening, could not cheer up markets. Sales continued. If you prefer to dispose of securities, even against the backdrop of good news, what are waiting for the news background is not so blissful? We continue to look down on the market, and recommend to refrain from purchasing shares of commodity companies.

Another drop in oil prices (futures for Brent during the U.S. trading session, left at 2% below the levels that were at the close of trading in Russia) again is the main negative for the shares of Rosneft, Lukoil, Tatneft. Perhaps the publication of today"s reporting Rosneft for 2009 g also not be able to reverse the negative trends in the market shares of state-owned company, which began with the Finance Ministry proposal to restore the export duties for East Siberian oil fields. If something is and should pay attention to customers in our market at a time when S P500 index has struck a 100-day moving average, and the Shanghai Composite has fallen off below the 200-day, it shares VTB which is not the first day of demonstrating the dynamics of the market better.

Click to continue »

Russia market will decline in February, fueled by negative external signals. Strong U.S. GDP statistics for the IV quarter led to skyrocketing quotations on domestic sites, which was not recorded, which will increase the pressure "bear" factors at the opening. The U.S. market was closed on the eve of the session lows, despite positive GDP data, which once were considered by investors through the prism of the policy of low rates, raising the risk of increasing rates. The Dow Jones lost about 0.5%, to close near the psychological support of 10,000 points, which enables a technical rebound. Futures on the SP 500 index after a significant reduction in consolidated near the short-term support, which contributes to rebound, the growth potential of over 1%.

On plots Asia prevail "bearish" sentiment, which is associated with a decrease in futures for U.S. indices. Chinese index lost about 2%, consolidating near session lows.

Thus, after the drawdown at the opening of Russia"s market may remain at the level attained without attempting to close the morning gap down.

In addition to the dynamics of world stock indices, the sale helps the situation in the commodities market. Appetite for risk participants significantly weakened, resulting in a lower pair EUR /USD. This placed pressure on commodity instruments. Futures Brent crude is trading near the lower boundary of the medium-term uptrend. Technical factors contributed to a reversal upward in the medium term, but the risk is high penetration of the lower limit caused by the strengthening U.S. dollar. Support on a pair of EUR /USD rate is 1.38, which last summer was formed upward dynamics.

With consolidation at such low levels of open long positions do not recommend. However, technical factors suggest that bounce up today will still be formed. MICEX at the opening could test the lower boundary of the channel 1400 - 1405 points, where penetration of which the index can strive towards the mark of 1,345 points. After a negative start trading on an index level of resistance will be the 21-day moving average - 1413 points.

Inside the course of the day trades can be corrected by the data on personal spending and income, and expenditure on construction. Prior to the auction in the United States will be published the results of Exxon Mobile. In addition to external factors and internal pressures will market news in the form of statements of "Gazprom" for 9 months of IFRS and reporting to Rosneft in 2009 by US GAAP.

Click to continue »

Country

somehow very quickly resigned, and even got used to the fact that a month now lives (and at least another couple of months is doomed to live) without the approval of the law of state estimates. Moreover, and reasons for concern seems to be no special: Payments go and gosmashina somehow works. In truth, the current situation the lack of budget - a very convenient thing for the government: not as such budget revenue and expenditure (payment schedule), and all sorts of meticulous experts can not calculate the actual deficit of state budget.

That and the Ministry of Finance on January 27 issued a very optimistic statistics. As it turned out, for January-December 2009 state budget deficit is made with less than 20 billion UAH. (19,865.6 million), while the planned annual targets have been much worse - 31,6 billion UAH. So where is cause for concern?

They appear, if a bit deeper look at the Finance Ministry published indices. As soon becomes apparent that, despite more than 12 percent annual inflation (12.3%), the tax revenues to state treasury over the last year have decreased, and also more than 12% (from 168 billion UAH. Up to 149 billion). Emerged almost $ 20 billion hole had to be compensated ... right through loans. Borrowing state treasury last year exceeded $ 97 billion UAH. (of which at maturity accounted for about 31.3 billion). For comparison: in 2008, both figures were more than five times more modest (17.7 and 6 billion UAH., Respectively). It is unfortunate that in this year"s trend of rapid expansion of national debt will inevitably gather momentum.

The fact that the money in the treasury sorely lacking, it is very hard to hide. According to former Finance Minister, an indicative amount of the budget deficit in 2010 will be about 150 billion UAH. (including funds provided to recapitalize troubled banks). Pinzenyk believes that the real deficit will be even higher, as in the election campaign the Government has not dared to raise gas prices.

obvious that in such circumstances the Government will not be too fussy in the search for additional sources fill the budget hole. Vivid examples: the decision of the Ministry of Finance of the truncated compensation of VAT to exporters, as well as attempts to deprive the Cabinet of the National Bank of reserves to replenish the treasury bills. But if discrimination exporters entirely in the hands of the government, the question of "development" natsbankovskih reserves Yulia Tymoshenko hurriedly not solved. Despite the formal resolution of the IMF to reduce the foreign exchange reserves of the NBU to $ 2 billion, the National Bank refused to transfer these funds to the government accounts, as well as direct lending to the budget he is prohibited by law profile.

It would seem, yet another scandal and recriminations NBU Head Volodymyr Stelmakh and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is inevitable. However, several days passed, but no drastic steps on both sides and not followed. Moreover, according to sources, "ZN" at the National Bank, this week was even held an expanded meeting of the Board of the NBU, which was attended by the prime minister and representatives of virtually all major banks with the Ukrainian and foreign capital (except for Privat).

At the meeting of bankers were asked to look very strongly, how attractive is government bonds, giving the yield over 20% per annum, even for three-and six-month securities. A case, you see, is that in the course of 12, 19 and 26 January auctions, the Ministry of Finance managed to attract only about 400 million UAH. even at rates 22-26% of securities from three months to three years. According to the PN one of the participants of the meeting, Yulia Tymoshenko suggested the bankers to buy Government Bonds amounting to 4.6 billion UAH. And the state budget deficit in January-February is projected at about $ 7 billion UAH.

not to say that the financiers were very tractable, but where to go, if you"re at the same time persuade the prime minister and head of the National Bank: Bankers have agreed to buy six months of Government Bonds with a yield of 21% over $ 2 billion UAH.

In this case, however, because of doubts in the reliability of bankers minfinovskih obligations as a guarantor of their National Bank had to act. He already seems to be even ruled government, which pledged to buy Government Bonds from the banks for five days prior to maturity. "It will then be dealt with financial problems between the Cabinet and National Bank of Ukraine, Vladimir Stelmach did not say, - said our interlocutor. - But I think that this debt will be transformed into a more long bonds. Click to continue »

Strong statistics on U.S. GDP had a positive impact on the markets. In IV quarter, according to preliminary data, GDP grew by 5.7%, expected 4.7%. Growing stock markets and oil, the reaction is very positive, the players do not pay attention to the rising dollar. But do not forget that in the III quarter of a preliminary assessment showed an increase of 3.6%, and final figures were at 2.2%. European markets added about 1.5%, U.S. futures rise nearly 1% in Europe to leaders of growth stocks of banks and mining companies. Russia has been buying during the day lost about 1%, data from the U.S. allowed reverse the decline and get a plus. At 17:20 the MICEX index rising by 0.3%, RTS index at 0.44%. Trading volumes at the secondary level, 38 billion rubles. Better the market looks the most liquid securities, Gazprom increased by 1.4%, Sberbank by 1.3%. Also better than the market shares of Lukoil 0.7% and VTB 1.1%. Steel sector completely ignores the dynamics of the stocks of the largest mining company, yesterday, against a background of 3% reduction of the sector in London, we grew up today in front of declining, despite the growth in Europe. -1% NLMK, Severstal -0.9%, MMC Norilsk Nickel -0.9%. In the near future is very important, as will behave couple dollar /euro. It is likely that further strengthening of the dollar will constrain the growth of equity markets and adversely affect the oil. In this case, we see a further decline, including in our market.

Click to continue »

Trading in the stock market only in the technical analysis, not paying attention to the movement of currencies and oil quotations, perhaps we could. But we do not dare use a similar trading strategy on their own account. While trading decisions, we will try to take into account as many factors of pricing.

In recent days, we are particularly concerned about the status of the currency market. We have about 40-50% of the assets is in stocks, so we"re afraid actively restoring the position of world currencies against the dollar. While probably infected by an irrational hope, we make the euro a chance to rise above its downtrend the December 1,435 /1,44 EUR /USD. But realize that the chances are small, because the trend is very beautiful and thoughtful smooth rebound within days and within weeks. See strong support to the graph of pair euro /dollar, we found only at the level of - 1.38 (projection down the uplink euros from March 2009) and the level of 1,29 (uptrend against the euro in November 2008).

strong dollar - a weak oil prices. Accordingly, perederzhivat "long" positions on the domestic securities next week, if the euro did not seize the initiative from the dollar will not narrowly arrange the mechanical "stops".

As couples ruble /dollar, if you contact your nearest futures of its technical picture again, as before the new year, is aimed at winning a pair of 32 RUB /USD. (Note that we allowed to translate the proportions of the prices of futures contracts, the language understandable to the townsfolk).

But this time, further raises very serious threat to the dollar rebound in district 34 RUB /USD. Before the new year on such a risk only a hint of a downward projection of the top channel of the dollar. Now is the level of implementation of the "double bottom", which originated in the chart in October 2009 and bought the clear outlines in January 2010. Transition dollar peak in December 2009 31,5 RUB /USD to complete the formation of the figure.

Despite all the foregoing, it is too early to talk about the return of the era of a strong dollar. Hence, the choice of securities that can profit and "bulls" on our stock market is vast.

Figure 1. Si-3.10 (the March contract on the dollar /ruble week cut)

Click to continue »

Stocks
Maintain long positions in ordinary shares of "Gazprom" (GAZP RX) from the nearest to 195.0 rubles.

Maintain long positions in ordinary shares "LUKOIL" (LKOH RX) with the immediate goal in 1750 rubles.

double long positions in ordinary shares in Rosneft "(ROSN RX) in the case of quotations to reduce 225.0-228.0 rub. with the immediate goal of 260.0 rubles.

double long positions in ordinary shares of Gazprom Neft "(SIBN RX) in the case of quotations to reduce 145.0-147.0 rub. with the immediate goal of 175.0 rubles.

Buy (1 /3 limit) preference shares of Surgutneftegaz "(SNGSP RX) in the case of quotations to reduce 14.25-14.30 rubles. with the immediate goal at 16.00 rubles.

Keep long positions in preferred shares of Transneft "(TRNFP RX) with the immediate goal of 28,000 rubles.

double long positions in ordinary shares VTB (VTBR RX) in the case of quotations to reduce the 0.0715-0.0720 USD. with the immediate aim of 0.0760 rubles.

Maintain long positions in ordinary shares of FGC (FEES RX) with the immediate goal of 0,360 rubles.

Buy (the remaining 1 /3 limit), the March futures on the RTS index (VEH0) in the case of reduction of quotations to 1425-1430 points with the immediate goal of 1500 points.

Raw
Buy (the remaining 1 /3 limit), the March futures on crude oil WTI (CLH0) in the case of reduction of quotations to $ 72.00-72.50 with the immediate goal of $ 80.00 and stop loss on a mark of $ 70.70.

Click to continue »

global equity markets
the leitmotif of most of January trading on world markets have forced investors to sell commodities and equities is the fear of approaching a period of tightening monetary policy in different regions of the world. Presses on the market and uncertainty about the U.S. administration"s plans for the financial sector.

The last wave of optimism in the stock markets caused by soothing statements by Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama, was only a short-term bounce for corrective market. After one day of growth decline in world equity markets continues.

The last day the U.S. stock indices finished in red. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1,13% - to 10,120.46 points, Standart Poor"s 500 has lowered 1,18% - to 1084.53 points, Nasdaq Composite was lower at 1.91%, standing at 2,179 points.

The main indicators of stock trading platforms of Asia today are losing roughly the same. Futures on America"s shares are listed with a decrease of 0,5%.

In the U.S. yesterday, leaving only the weak statistics. Thus, the increase in volume of orders for durable goods rose in December to just 0.3% against the expected 2%. The number of complaints of American citizens for unemployment insurance for the week ended Jan. 24 amounted to 470 thousand while the market participants predicted value of the index at 450 thousand

Meanwhile, good financial results demonstrate the reports of American corporations. Figures obtained for the previous quarter earnings-reporting companies on the eve of Amazon.com, Procter Gamble, 3M and Microsoft significantly exceeded market forecasts of U.S. experts.

Today in the United States will be published preliminary data on GDP for the 4 quarter. According to forecasts, the quarterly growth in U.S. economy was 4,6%, which is more than 2 times higher than the results of 3 quarters (2.2%). Some experts on the American economy and provide more optimistic forecasts.

Metal Market
This week, the major industrial metals have been active sales. The only metal that has continued to maintain its position remains nickel, yesterday, he also refrained from falling, and even showed moderate growth (0.85%, to $ 18350), the rest metallofyuchersy - collapsed.

main outsider last session on the London Metal Exchange was copper lost 4.6% of market value - up to $ 6898. Just under strong subsidence affected contracts for zinc, aluminum and lead, these metals fell 3.5% (2158 $), 3,3% (2108 $) and 3,2% (2057 $), respectively. The dynamics of the market has demonstrated a better tin, has lost 1.7% of the cost - up to $ 17550.

On Friday morning the market of metals should be of world trade platforms, auctions are held in negative territory.

Market Oil
Of the major commodities to maintain positive momentum in the Friday morning not only quotations of oil, it is true, and it is extremely unconvincing. Care of pair euro /dollar below the 1.4 significantly reduces the likelihood of rebound in the market of "black gold".

Yesterday hydrocarbons completed the symbolic lowering of the cost. Quotes the next contracts for Brent crude fell 0,15% and stopped on the value of 72.13 dollars per barrel. Price neftefyuchersov class WTI remained virtually unchanged, down 0.04% - to 73.64 dollars per barrel.

The next week, according to the survey Bloomberg, most of the oil market participants expect further downward movement.

Russia Market
observed in the last days of wariness traders awaited significant news from the United States, yesterday gave way to a desire to pay off the previously sold-paper at very attractive prices. As a result, Russia"s stock market managed to end the day in positive field.

Today external background leaves no room for maneuver to traders, at least in the morning. To open the domestic market had a negative zone. However, it is hoped that during the day index will take another attempt at growth. The reason for it can serve as data on U.S. GDP for 4 quarter of 2009, which will be known at 16:30 Moscow time.

Of the less important statistics, which, however, pay attention, we note published today, the unemployment rate in the euro area in December (13:00 Moscow time.) and the final value of the January index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan USA (17:55 MSK.). Reporting will release oil company Chevron.

Click to continue »

Dynamics
Bidding on Thursday at the home sites were under precautionary uptrend. The opening took place with a gap up on the background of positive external background. At the same time in the paper"s leaders escaped Rosneft after the message about opening a major new oil fields in the Irkutsk region. However, to keep pace until the closure was not possible. In the first half of the day "blue chips" have stabilized at the values of progress and tried to move higher, but in the second half of the session, the situation in Western European markets has deteriorated, which has suspended the sale. With a negative start trading in the U.S., investors are once again cut their long positions.

leader of growth on Thursday became the paper VTB, adding more than 3%. About 2% grew MMC Norilsk Nickel, Surgutneftegaz and Tatneft. The plus closed paper "LUKoil, Rosneft and Sberbank.

Following trades RTS index rose to 1460.98 points (1.01%), the MICEX index finished trading on the value of 1406.55 points (1.10%).

Causes
causes of the morning were good positive results of the tender in the United States and Asia against the background of optimistic statements by American authorities. Indices of confidence and sentiment in Europe came out mixed and not particularly influenced the course of bidding. On the other hand, data on orders for durable goods, and traditional data applications for unemployment benefits in the United States disappointed players. Against this backdrop, traders are once again went to sell the assets and the resulting indices closed noticeably back into daytime highs.

What to expect?
U.S. market on Thursday closed lower: Dow Jones -1.13%, S P500 -1.18% and the Nasdaq -1.91%. Asian areas now also falling. Japanese Nikkei 225 in minus 2.1%, Korean index falls to 2.4%, the index lost 1.5% of Hong Kong, the Chinese market is reduced by 0.1%.

Oil futures remain on the Thursday. At the opening of trading in Europe, a barrel of Brent crude oil yield about 72.20 dollars.

Thus, at the opening of Russia"s stock market a negative external background.

Why worry?
Another round of tightening monetary policy in the Asian region today revealed in the form of increased rates by 0.75% in India. The Chinese government has already taken similar measures, and, apparently, will continue this trend. Statistics consumer price index in Japan continues to reflect the increase in deflationary pressures in the economy. Ben Bernanke is the head of the Fed. The decision on his candidacy was supported on a vote in the U.S. Senate, however, the number of votes against was the highest in the history of elections. Quotes of copper continues to decline, and nickel - have grown up a bit. All spoke not in favor of buying the shares, as reflected in the form of falling Asian indices.

Total trades expect from today"s opening of the negative and volatile multi-directional movement of quotations within the session. Do not rule out that many of the shares on the basis of trades still be able to close in positive territory.

Click to continue »

late afternoon is possible to recover the markets

Today, we expect a negative opening on the Russian market, which will contribute to the fall of American and Asian sites. In the first minutes of "Bears", using the external background, misled the market to the level of 1390 points and will try to penetrate. If the market can maintain their position, one evening, "bulls" will be a good springboard for renewed growth, which is possible in case of positive macroeconomic data from the U.S., where the focus will attract players for 4 quarter GDP and consumer sentiment index at Michigan State University. Also an important factor will be the U.S. company, which markets once again began to pay attention.

hours trading on the Russian sites have opened growth of quotations. After the first hour of trading the MICEX index reached a level of 1,420 points, before moving to the lateral motion. Evening on the background of negative dynamics of U.S. indexes, Russia"s market has left in correctional decline, which resulted in some growth was compensated. In the market leaders Severstal and VTB, adding 6,2% and 3,2% respectively. Closed in negative territory Polyus Gold (-1.4%) and Gazprom Neft (-0.2%). As a result of trading the MICEX index added 1.1%, ending the day at 1,406.55 points.

traded on the American sites have opened in positive territory, but afterthe first few minutes, when the major indices were able to show modest growth, started to descend and continued for the first third of the trading session. As a result, by mid-day major indexes lost about 1,5%. The second half of the market trades conducted in the restoration, which allowed him to adjust the drop. As a result of the auctions the index Dow Jones and S P500 fell by 1,13% and 1,18% respectively, the NASDAQ index lost 1.9%. At the morning session, futures on S P500 index resumed its decline, resulting in a 9.50 contract went under yesterday"s lows and reached the level of 1074 points.

energy market after the closure of our demonstrated lateral movement at the level of $ 72 on crude oil futures for Brent, which continued at the morning session. As a result, a 9.50 contract traded at 72.1 dollars per barrel.

Click to continue »