On Tuesday, the Russian stock market finally decided to return to the beaten track the medium-term uptrend. &a1000mp;lt;br />
RTS index soared by 1.9% to 1498.75 points, indexes MICEX and RTS Standard - for 1.21% and 1.39% to 9936.16 and 1436.63 points respectively. Trading volumes remained approximately the same values.

Tuesday favorable scenario, the foundation which was laid trading session on Friday, got into practice. Do not let the market a day earlier to go for a repeat of the recent lows, despite a cocktail of negative factors, optimistic market participants began to prepare for a fair remuneration for work papers. Already in the debut trading was broken neck line reversal pattern "upside the head, shoulders, and at the same time resigned a short-term trend is downward, which will now focus on the movement of punters to 1,485 items on the MICEX index.

emerged growth potential was provided to improve the situation on foreign markets. Despite the fact that the published data on the eve of business activity in industry in several key economies of the world have manifested as increasing inflationary components, investors around the world have focused on the confirmation that the post-crisis recovery is well underway. Fears that central banks will in response to recent macroeconomic indicators hurry to increase rates, along with unresolved issues of sovereign debt, has not had a decisive importance. Attractive price levels after a sharp fall in the previous days on the background of the continuing favorable liquidity conditions were more significant factor that enticed most of the players play on the rebound. In favor of a transition initiative to buyers played and the fact that representatives of the People"s Bank of China for its verbal intervention and the unexpected decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia does not raise interest rates, have demonstrated that monetary authorities are aware of the fragility of the current economic recovery and will not allow it "to strangle".

Domestic market participants, as if fearing to remain in the cold, in the previous days did not dare to make a new "decoupling". But having received a visual signal in the form of take-off of U.S. stock indicators, the weakening U.S. dollar and later followed by higher oil prices to $ 75/barr. sort by WTI, doubts about returning to a trajectory of growth were added to the category of marginal. Increased capitalization of oil and gas companies on Wall Street at 3%, did not leave room for maneuver for those who are still counting on the continued downward movement.

After passing the morning in 1423 points, the game was done, that introduced the market in this format: "nonaggressive fix in case of negative external background and start a new purchase in the event of his improvement." The main guideline was the price of oil, which, after a morning of technical corrections soared to new highs, with the transition in the afternoon session of the newly ebbed, but closer to the auction in the United States once again began to rectify their situation.

The opening session on Wall Street did not spoil such a disposition of forces. Speech by the initiator of the banking reform by Paul Volcker in Congress did not have a "hawk" in nature, besides excellent quarterly reports submitted Dow Chemical, UPS, DR Horton. The report of the latter company, builder number 2 in the U.S., lay on a fertile soil were published after this data for active transactions in the housing market, which led to more optimistic view on prospects for U.S. real estate market in light of disappointing sales data in December. Thus, by the end of the session once again prevailed optimism that bounced quotes the most liquid stocks to new intraday highs.

greatest interest in buying the shares retained by the telecommunication segment (Mic1000ex TLC 3.24%) in anticipation of the upcoming Feb. 3 meeting of the coordinating council of the holding Svyazinvest, which may be named in the coefficients, which will be converted into shares of MRK Paper updated Rostelecom.

idea was present in the coal companies of the Russian stock market in light of recent news about the increase in domestic prices: Mechel (5.07%), Raspadskaya (0.82%), Belon (2.46%). Index Micex MM metallurgical sector as a whole has completed bidding increment of 1.58%

In a spurt of black gold quotations have found their buyers and shares of oil and gas sector (Micex OG 1.58%). Here on the background of the received signal a turnaround market market participants focused their efforts on the weak lately because of uncertainty regarding the preservation of zero tariffs on mined in eastern Siberia oil Rosneft shares (3.64%).
In the run-up performances by Paul Volcker"s plan reform of the financial industry, stock exchange players are in no hurry to fill their portfolios in shares of banks (Micex FNL 1.16%). Also, a few other people at the event were representatives of the shares of the energy market segment (Micex PWR 0.81%).

look at today"s market

On Wednesday, the Russian stock market will do one more step toward their annual highs. Plowed strip of excellent data on business activity in industry in many key economies, published earlier in the week, the day before was supported by positive data on uncompleted deals on home buying and a return to profit builder DR Horton, allowing to extend the U.S. stock indexes rebound from a three-month minimum marks (SP 500 1.3%). One way to keep a positive attitude speech in the U.S. Congress, Paul Volcker, with a detailed plan for reforming the financial industry. The positive closing of trading on Wall Street supported the optimistic mood at the auctions in Asia: Shanghai composite 1.75%, Hang Seng 1.29%, Nikkei 225 0.32%.

On Wednesday morning, futures for U.S. indices continue to move the same course (SP 500 0.11%), playing a favorable report from News Corp and tuning in the positive nature of the impending publication rate ISM services (18-00). If those expectations with respect to the rate in the euro area (12-00) and Britain (12-30) are confirmed, and will not contain negative surprises, the punters have an additional reason as long as "not recall" about the unsolved problems servicing sovereign debt and tightening monetary policy in China. Also some food for thought will present a report on job creation in the private sector of ADP (16-15), which lets us understand how faith is the positive outlook on Friday of data from the U.S. Labor Ministry. Its quarterly reports to be published today, Pfizer, Comcast, Time Warner, and Western Union. In the 18-30 come out traditional oil and petroleum products from the Ministry of Energy of the United States. Data from the API, although negative, did not affect the balance of power in the oil market, which has been updated recent highs (WTI $ 77.17/barr.)

morning thanks to the Russian stock market may be on the MICEX index have 1445-1450 points. Then pull a few purchases pougasnet that may lead to the closure of the morning and break up within 0.5%. However, in the future intraday drop in the removal of local overbought may be re-used for fresh purchases, that the market will return to the old stamps. In general, after fixing above 1,423 points on the MICEX index goal upward motion is located at 1485 points, and there is no reason to revise it. The engine will continue to be oil and gas sector.

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In recent days, even if the external news background was extremely positive and Russian technical analysis was on the side of the bulls, we are accustomed to look for a fly in the ointment. The situation on financial markets around the complex and feel the trick. And then to not complain about the wrong open positions have to try to capture as much as possible factors of pricing.

So today we are somewhat confused by sluggish growth of the main Japanese index Nikkei, as well as weak barely noticeable positive dynamics of futures for U.S. indices.

At the same time, despite the slight morning rollback quotes, price tag on oil is very stirring. Must be in the commercial plan for the day we decided to keep an eye on shares of oil companies, which have not yet overbought according to technical analysis. Basically we will have shares of "Tatneft" at gunpoint. Tapers sideways trend of shares from November 2009 with the boundaries of 138-148 rubles, of course, not the safest place for catching fast money. But if you cleverly put protective suspension, for example, has emerged at the hourly chart from January 25, 2010 uptrend line - 139.4 /139.5 rubles, from extra experience you can protect yourself.

Although you can not go by the standard scheme. No wonder many traders joke that the most oil paper we share "Sberbank". Recently, among the papers of the banking sector, the most interesting for us from a technical point of view were Paper "VTB", or at worst, preference shares, Sberbank. But today, quite attractive for an aggressive look even purchase ordinary shares of Sberbank. The graph issuer clearly visible sign next level - 89,9 rubles (the upper limit of perceived from January 26, 2010 at the hourly chart uplink) and 87.4 (uptrend line, fundamental for the above channel). Note that on a daily chart the market value of shares of Sberbank, the mark of 87,4 /87,5 pulls and fast moving average EMA13.

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Internal market:

We see the growth of trading activity on the background prevalence of positive price movements in the ruble debt market. The reason, in our opinion, was the increase in ruble liquidity after the bulk of budgetary payment on the one hand and having a place of optimism on foreign markets (the growth in the stock and commodity trading floors), which strengthens the ruble. Continued interest of large investors to secure bonds allowed Railways to reduce the benchmark return is posted on the 23-th issue of 15 billion rubles. to 9-9,2% per annum. At mid-day trading on Tuesday with the largest turnover grew OGK2-1 (2.82% of the price discovery), MosObl-6 (0,85%), VTB-5 (0.29%), MTS-5 (0,25 %), System-3 (0,21%), CFR-15 (0,19%), VTB-6 (0,17%), MTS-3 (0,16%), Moskva62 (0.08%) , RZD-12 (0,07%), SibTlk-8 (0.05%), RZD-10 (0,04%), Moskva63 (0,03%), Moskva44 (0.02%). Decreased following quotation securities - RusStand-8 (-0.04%), System-2 (-0.12%), Moskva61 (-0.12%), Gazprom Neft-4 (-0,15%), MTS-4 (-0.38%), Mechel-4 (-0.87%).

level of liquidity continues to reco1000ver as a result of the completion of tax payments. The amount of funds on deposits and correspondent accounts on Tuesday morning rose to 83 billion rubles. and amounted to 954.5 billion rubles. Odds Mosprime as follows: O /N - 3,94%, 1M - 5,46%, 3M - 6,01%. NDF curve as comfortable for carry-trade: 1M - 5,05%, 3M - 5,3%, 1Y - 5,84%. As a result of the second half of the trading day the dollar "fell" on 0,62% to 30.143 rubles., Euro 0.12% to 42.009 rubles. Course currency basket in the ruble on Tuesday fell 0.52% and amounted to 35.486 rubles.

Market US Treasuries and Eurobonds:

Tuesday, before the start of trading in the U.S., we note once again the sales curve US Treasuries, which continues to witness an increase in optimism among investors: UST-2 - 0.851% per annum (-1b.p.), UST-10 - 3,652 % pa (-0.2 bp), UST-30 - 4.569% per annum (0.5 bp). Key event on Tuesday will address PA Volcker to reform the U.S. banking system. In the case of "softening" of the original plan, encouraging investors can get a new impetus. In the segment of Russian Eurobonds visible inactive sales amid falling interest from investors - Rus-30 decreased by 0.23% to 112.22% of par, the yield of the issue is 5.463% per annum (4b.p.). Spread between Rus-30 - UST-10 increased by 2 bp and is 181 bp

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Russia"s bid opened growth on a broad front of the securities - the reaction of the players on the positive momentum in the U.S. markets. On the eve of the U.S. stock indicators rose against the backdrop of1000favorable macroeconomic statistics and a good corporate financial reporting. True, the Asian stock exchanges kept sufficiently responded to the positive. But in Russia and in Europe, optimism prevailed.

continues strong interest in the shares of the telecommunications sector. Do not lag behind the "Telecom and paper oil and gas companies, which consolidated their leading positions in securities of Rosneft and Gazprom, supported by high oil prices.

Weaker others, perhaps, the banking sector stocks look particularly Sberbank, traded or near the levels close on Monday, whose attempts to go above-zero in the zone have not been notable success.

In the afternoon, the pace of growth slowed stock indicators, trading volumes have begun to decline - are available for purchase ideas have been exhausted, the market froze in anticipation. However, to expect major changes hardly worth - the day was not rich in macroeconomic statistics. However, participants are unlikely to be confined to one-day rise. The decisive factor will be the dynamics of U.S. trading floors, where there may be many interesting events take place under the influence of the economic performances of the Presidential Adviser Paul Volcker, who will introduce in the Senate Banking Committee to limit the activities of banks in the financial market.

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What will the future bring?

On Tuesday, Russia"s stock market is growing, which is quite logical, given the rise in market prices of oil (Brent $ 73,9 /bbl; 1,1%) and a strong closing trades in the U.S. yesterday. The MICEX index rose by 15 o"clock mark to 1,433 points (1.2%). The main players today are paying attention to the papers on the oil and telecommunications sectors.

Thus, today, Russia and European indexes move up, led by the expectation of the continuation of the growing trend in the U.S. stock market (futures SP 0,35%). Against this background, we see the restoration of interest in buying risky assets, not only on the stock market, but also on Raw contracts. Prices of gold ($ 1112/unts) and industrial metals today can look at the shares of mining companies more positively.

I do not want to write in this review, why today Rosneft shares (3.2%) and telecom traded better than their counterparts on the market. It is better to think that our market is waiting until the end of the trading session and in the coming days. I think that we really can expect to maintain positive momentum on the stock exchanges this evening, as before, we saw a very strong closing of the trading session in the United States.

However, there are a few things that alerted us to continue their medium-term growth. First, we do not see really strong weakening of the dollar, so you can safely wait for oil from a mark of $ 80/barr. And the ruble near 29 rubles. Secondly, the U.S. stock indexes finished in January near the minimum monthly highs, indicating a possible continued pressure on them in February. And, finally, the market has not brought to its logical conclusion subject to control risks and the size of the largest banks. It is very possible that today"s speech White House adviser, former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker on the consensus measures to restrict the activities of banks will not find a positive response on Wall Street.

Therefore, we recommend short-term trading in growth, but not perederzhivat long positions and often record profits.

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Today, trading on the Russian sites have begun raising the prices of most liquid stocks. Positive attitude to the discovery led to rising oil prices and positive dynamics of U.S. indices yesterday. By 14:00 the MICEX index rose by 1.11% and the RTS index gained weight 1,57%.

largest increase again show the action of the telecommunications sector. Preference and ordinary shares "Sibirtelecom" grow respectively by 9% and 7% respectively. Restore lost ground stocks of oil and gas and metallurgical sectors. Top gainers were shares of Rosneft and Norilsk Nickel, which are becoming more expensive on 3,5% and 1,95% respectively.

In general, prevailing today, the news background rather quiet. Also before the end of the day is not expected to publish bathrooms data in the U.S., which could influence the course of bidding. For this reason, market participants are sensitive to the dynamics of oil quotes and the opening of futures trading in the States. From this side of Russia"s blue chips in the morning, found considerable support. Interest in the "oil industry" may be exacerbated if the WTI crude oil penetrates the resistance level of $ 75.5 per barrel.

MICEX index was higher with the opening of the 1,420 points resistance level. Saving current position may contribute to the continued growth to a mark of 1475 points.

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Persistence of the market in the unwillingness to decline gradually finds confirmation in macroeconomic statistics, coming from the United States - such as yesterday"s index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector showed the level of 58.4 points against the expected value of 55 points. Against this background, by the way, the American indexes have shown good growth, while oil prices jumped up by more than 2%. Although, as is the case with a post on Friday, the U.S. GDP, the market may not develop a strong upward movement in response to improved economic performance - the more so phenomenally high levels of unemployment and deficits in state budgets had taken a catastrophic nature. In addition, the good news on the U.S. that go along with bad news on the European economy, supporting the dollar, which could adversely affect the cost of raw materials.

At this controversial background of Russia"s market yesterday showed restrained lateral movement, although some papers and looked much better than the market. First of all, it is Gazprom"s shares, which showed 1,68% on MICEX on the background of the published IFRS for 9 months of 2009. The accounts showed the excess of the forecast profit and revenue, and so pleased with the market.

In addition, we have seen an impressive rally in the regional telecom sector: February 3 meeting will be the coordinating council of Svyazinvest, which will be announced on the coefficients of conversion of securities in the paper MRK Rostelecom. We believe, therefore, that this growth can continue, but we also believe that the main number of market participants, "makes the weather" in these papers, the approximate coefficients are already known in advance, and therefore adhere to the growth of MRK shares may already be too late .
As for the overall market, the MICEX technical chart analysis allows us to predict a rebound in the coming days for quotations up, especially since oil prices have not gone down an important support at $ 71 a barrel varieties Brent, a U.S. indexes after the breakdown of long-term upward trend should be to bounce before further fall. Thus, we expect the rebound, but did not believe, however, that this rebound will lead to a significant growth market, and we recommend that you use it to close long positions.

Today:

Leading global markets rose on Monday: German DAX 0,81%, Britain"s FTSE 1,14%, DJIA 1,13%. Asian markets this morning are not uniform dynamics, with the Japanese Nikkei225 shows 1,63%. Futures on the S P500 demonstrate change to -0.21%.

Pair EUR /USD is in the € /$ 1,3930, and USD /JPY - in $ /#165; 90,63. Gold is worth $ 1.105,11 per troy ounce, silver - $ 16.68 per troy ounce, copper - $ 6,752, and nickel - $ 17,940 per metric ton.

Yields for UST-2 0,86; for UST-10 3,66.

Oil prices over the past 24 hours rose $ 1.33 to $ 73.24 per barrel varieties Brent.

At 10.00 GMT in the EU will Eurozone producer price index for December (Euro-Zone PPI, forecast 0,00%).

At 15.00 GMT in the U.S. went data on the change of outstanding transactions on sale of housing for December (Pending Home Sales, forecast 1,00%).

So, today, we expect growth of quotations of securities.

MICEX (Daily):

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expect attempts to breakdown the level of 1420 on the MICEX index

Today, we expect a positive opening on the Russian markets. Dynamics of American sites and energy prices, which have shown growth since our closing, allow "bulls" from the opening to approach the local maxima and try to overcome them. In this test of resistance at 1,420 points on the MICEX index, from a technical point of view, may be a signal of a reversal of the market and talk about the possibility of beginning a new wave of upward movement. From the perspective of the external background, the focus of the players will be on the statement of Paul Volekera in the U.S. Congress, which begins today at 18.00, which will be presented with a plan to restrict the activities of U.S. banks.

hours trading on the Russian sites have opened lower quotations on the negative external background. During the first half of the day the Bears" tried to break through the level of 1400 points, but at the end of the session, on a background of macroeconomic data from the U.S., the market could start to recover by the end of the day came close to closing levels Friday. Worse market closed Gazpromneft (-1.8%), Rosneft (-1,2%) and Surgutneftegaz (-1.1%). Better the market during the whole day felt like a regional telecom sector, the paper which added Bole 5%. As a result of trading the MICEX index lost 0.17%, ending the day at1,417 points.

traded on the American sites have opened growth of quotations. In the first minutes of the main indexes added about 0.5%, after which the dynamics of the continued rising against the background of output data on an index of business activity in the manufacturing industry, which proved to be much better than expected, and continued throughout the session. As a result of the auctions the index Dow Jones and S P500 added 1,17% and 1,43% respectively, the NASDAQ index rose by 1.11%. At the morning session, futures on S P500 index shows a slight decrease to 9.30 and is trading at 1084 points.

energy market after the closure of our demonstrated growth of quotations. Futures Brent crude was able to surpass $ 73 and ended the day at $ 73,6. At the morning session, the contract demonstrates the dynamics of correctional and 9.40 is trading at 73.25 dollars per barrel.

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Russia stock market at the close of the rapidly recovering, but serious intraday losses are not allowed to get in, plus indices, so the RTS index fell by 0.2% to 1,470.79 and the MICEX index on 0,17% to 1417. In the first half of the day Russia"s actions"d play a negative, accumulated during the night, but gradually the pressure on the markets began to subside largely due to macroeconomic data. Lifeline for Russia"s market was the U.S. data, and, above all, pleased index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, were better predictive values. Besides the costs of the population, as shown by the data continue to grow for several months. In addition, the actions reflected favorably on the rise in oil quotations weakened slightly against the dollar. Noticeably better than other chips looked Paper Gazprom, which published yesterday the results of III quarter 2009 according to IFRS, surpassed expectations. Rosneft shares pulled the market down on the contrary, after a report released since the company"s performance was slightly worse than forecasts. In addition, the players do not give information about the rest possible cancellation of tax holiday to East Siberian oil fields. The acts of telecommunications companies continue to play out the idea of combining inter-enterprise based on Rostelecom, which resulted in the purchase of individual securities sector. European stock platform finished the day in positive zone thanks to statistics and corporate news. Regional statistics showed improvement in business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Germany, the UK and the Eurozone as a whole, and in the evening encouraged by a message stating that the same indicator in the United States, too, has grown beyond expectations. Then news came to the forefront of companies. Investors were encouraged by the news of the desire of the Canadian pension fund Ontario Teachers "Pension Plan to buy the remaining stake in vodosnabzhayuschey company Northumbrian Water Group. In addition, the optimistic forecast of airline Ryanair Holding Plc. The current financial year has boosted purchases in markets by leveling the negative of the loss enterprises on the basis of III quarter of 2009. The focus of the paper were construction companies, after Deutsche Bank predicted growth stocks in the sector this year in the UK to 35%.

American stock markets began the week the major indexes rising. Positive statistic data caused the purchase, and reinforced the success of news from the companies. In particular, Exxon Mobil has pleased investors its financial results for the IV quarter. Moreover, oil prices rose on strong statistics and the weakened dollar, which positively affected the securities of power engineers.

Asian stock exchanges today, most of them grow. Positive external background after the U.S. trading markets is pushing up. Raw materials more expensive, thereby affecting the securities of oil and mining companies. Australia"s central bank today predicted left rates unchanged, its rise was expected, this factor also left its mark on the course of bidding.

Russia at the opening of the stock market can move up because of rising commodity prices. MICEX Index will rise to 1430/1440. Pair EUR /USD is still in the area of support for 1,387 and can radically affect the situation, if you will be lower, as will pull down not only the stock, but commodity platforms. In this case, the MICEX index may fall back to 1400/1390.

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Rosneft has published audited financial results to U.S. GAAP for the year 2009. Revenues decreased by 32% to $ 46.8 billion, which was due to lower prices for Urals crude oil by 35%, and increased oil production by 3%. With regard to organic growth Rosneft oil production in 2009 was among the leaders, behind only the company Bashneft. Rosneft"s oil output grew by only 1% to 47 million tons, but the company"s management has already expressed its intention to significantly increase investment in oil refineries in 2010. "The results of Rosneft has generally been consistent with our expectations as net income, and for revenue and EBITDA .. The company has demonstrated a high rate of growth of oil production, as well as efficient management of its high debt load", - analyst IK "Finam" Alexander Eremin.

Seventh Continent issued a press release on the results of operations for December and 12 months of 2009 gross retail sales (including VAT) in December rose 17% year-to-year and reached 5.66 billion rubles. Revenues for 2009 totaled 49 billion rubles., Which is 12% higher than the corresponding figure in 2008 comparable sales growth amounted to 4,2% year-to-year, worse than the corresponding rates of competing companies. Seventh Continent also reported an increase in consumer traffic by 11% in 2009 with an increase in the average check of 0.6% year-to-year. "In our opinion, issued statements indicates uncertain dynamics of the interest of buyers to shop the company because the increase in the average check in 2009 was markedly below the level of consumer inflation, which amounted to 8,8%. We believe that the coming year revenue growth drivers in Company no. Weak geographic diversification and slow the growth of new retail space are the main factors influencing growth, and low information transparency of a company does not increase the attractiveness of its shares - analyst Finam Eldar Vall.

Alfa Bank opened a Sibir airlines credit line amounting to 8,9 billion rubles. At the same time 5,4 billion company has already received. Loan term is 5 years. The interest rate on the loan has not been formally disclosed. According to the business media, it is equal to the refinancing rate plus 3%. The rest should get credit Siberia after the extraordinary general meeting of shareholders approve the deal. "We appreciate the news as positive for Siberia, as the company was able to restructure the 85-90% of its debt obligations. In addition, we draw attention to a sufficiently long period of credit, which eliminates the problem of raising debt resources for several years. With regard to interest rates, we believe it is low. In particular, for bonds that are traded today with a discount airline pays a coupon rate of 18% per annum. According to our estimates, the restructuring of debt on favorable terms a positive impact on the fundamental value of the company, "- wrote in his daily Konstantin Romanov of "Finam".

Gazprom issued unaudited consolidated interim financial statements according to IFRS for the first nine months of 2009. Net sales excluding excise taxes and duties decreased by 7% year to year, reaching 2.41 trillion. rub. The volume of gas sales fell by 18%, amounting to 343 billion cubic meters. m. The average price of gas sales increased by 19% - mainly due to growth in export prices of Gazprom. "The results of Gazprom were in line with our expectations at the EBITDA and net profit. In the third quarter the company showed a significant improvement in control of their most problematic article costs - purchasing gas from Central Asia", - said in a research note "Finam".

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